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Wilson and Nelson - JAGs or part of the solution


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#1 GASabresIUFAN

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:25 PM

I have really liked what I’ve seen from both players of late.
Wilson’s pt has jump from 8 minutes to 13-15 per night over the last 15 games. He has responded with 9 pts and an even +/-. He has also contributed on the PK.


Nelson has played 17 games in Buffalo and over the last 8 his PT has jumped from 14 minutes to 20 per game. He has 5 pts in those 8 games and Wowie has added both pk and pp time. In those 17 games he has only seen the penalty box in 2 of them. He is also a +5 in those 8 games.

These guys are both 25 with college experience.

While I don’t think either guys is ever going to play in our top6/top4, both look like they could nail down a 3rd line/3rd pairing role for next season and both would be an upgrade over what we saw most of the from the players in those roles.

Thoughts?

#2 North Buffalo

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 01:36 PM

Of all the guys I want to keep of the lower tier, these two are the ones... who I think will be positive keeps for the teams future.

#3 Taro T

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:02 PM

I have really liked what I’ve seen from both players of late.
Wilson’s pt has jump from 8 minutes to 13-15 per night over the last 15 games. He has responded with 9 pts and an even +/-. He has also contributed on the PK.
Nelson has played 17 games in Buffalo and over the last 8 his PT has jumped from 14 minutes to 20 per game. He has 5 pts in those 8 games and Wowie has added both pk and pp time. In those 17 games he has only seen the penalty box in 2 of them. He is also a +5 in those 8 games.
These guys are both 25 with college experience.
While I don’t think either guys is ever going to play in our top6/top4, both look like they could nail down a 3rd line/3rd pairing role for next season and both would be an upgrade over what we saw most of the from the players in those roles.
Thoughts?


They ARE JAGs, but they are JAGs that look good for this team & this coach.

They will remain cheap & you need some (most) of your bottom feeders to fit well into what you're trying to do. Fail to see any reason at present not to try to keep them around for the next 3-4 seasons. (Note, didn't say give them 3-4 year deals, just that they should be part of the plan that long unless one or both seriously regress.)

#4 Eleven

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:06 PM

Both.



#5 Alkoholist

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:13 PM

They ARE JAGs, but they are JAGs that look good for this team & this coach.

They will remain cheap & you need some (most) of your bottom feeders to fit well into what you're trying to do. Fail to see any reason at present not to try to keep them around for the next 3-4 seasons. (Note, didn't say give them 3-4 year deals, just that they should be part of the plan that long unless one or both seriously regress.)

 

I agree with this. Keep them around as long as they remain cheap and on relatively short term deals. Our cap situation will start looking good after next season when Gorges (2018), Moulson (2019), and Pominville (2019) are off the books. At that point the only anchor left will be Bogosian and even his contract will expire at the end of the 2020 season. We can worry about demoting or moving them only when we have guys that are better, younger, and/or cheaper.



#6 WildCard

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:14 PM

Jags



#7 Sabel79

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:26 PM

Jags, but again, every team needs a couple.

#8 TheCerebral1

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 02:26 PM

Wilson screams as a guy that is part of the culture shift that was needed.  This was a sneaky good move from Botterill and has been playing dividends.  He's someone who scores in small bunches works with his line mates and skates well.  With Rodrigues and potentially Girgensons you can have a pesky line that works really well together.  Ideally I'd like to keep all three.  Now, if we get an offer that is legitimate on improvement long term, you listen.  Nelson has a nice inlet pass and has shown poise.  While I've liked what I've seen, I still feel that there's more here needed for JAG.  



#9 dudacek

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 03:32 PM

Last night, this team dressed 14 JAGs, including Nelson and Wilson.
We need to get that number down to 4 or 5.

If I had to pick which 4 or 5 to keep, they might be in it, but honestly I don’t really care.
I don’t hate many of our JAGs, just the fact we have so many of them.

Edited by Mick O’Manly, 23 February 2018 - 03:32 PM.


#10 utsvävande

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 03:45 PM

If you looks at even strength points per 60, and tossing out Bailey because he only played a couple games, and recognizing my stats are somewhat inaccurate, and not including yesterday, Wilson is 2nd, and Rodriguez is 3rd on the team. They each are scoring at a rate that would look good on a good team.  The top 10 or so:

 

number name ESpts/60 ESpts

 

95 BAILEY2.69 3

15 EICHEL2.67 38

20 WILSON2.22 10

71 RODRIGUES2.01 11

45 GUHLE1.86 1

9 KANE1.76 28

90 O'REILLY1.70 27

21 OKPOSO1.51 20

13 BAPTISTE1.49 2

29 POMINVILLE1.32 17

23 REINHART1.31 17

67 POULIOT1.09 12

 

Just a guys score 1pt/60, Wilson and Rodriguez are scoring 2pts/60. Neither has particularly good linemates (though Erod killed in 15 minutes with Eichel).



#11 Thorny

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 05:59 PM

Last night, this team dressed 14 JAGs, including Nelson and Wilson.
We need to get that number down to 4 or 5.
If I had to pick which 4 or 5 to keep, they might be in it, but honestly I don’t really care.
I don’t hate many of our JAGs, just the fact we have so many of them.


Agree. Although there’s a couple I want off the list first. Namely, Larsson and Beaulieu.

If you looks at even strength points per 60, and tossing out Bailey because he only played a couple games, and recognizing my stats are somewhat inaccurate, and not including yesterday, Wilson is 2nd, and Rodriguez is 3rd on the team. They each are scoring at a rate that would look good on a good team.  The top 10 or so:
 
number name ESpts/60 ESpts
 
95 BAILEY2.69 3
15 EICHEL2.67 38
20 WILSON2.22 10
71 RODRIGUES2.01 11
45 GUHLE1.86 1
9 KANE1.76 28
90 O'REILLY1.70 27
21 OKPOSO1.51 20
13 BAPTISTE1.49 2
29 POMINVILLE1.32 17
23 REINHART1.31 17
67 POULIOT1.09 12
 
Just a guys score 1pt/60, Wilson and Rodriguez are scoring 2pts/60. Neither has particularly good linemates (though Erod killed in 15 minutes with Eichel).


Surprised Reinhart is so low..

#12 Taro T

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 06:07 PM

Agree. Although there’s a couple I want off the list first. Namely, Larsson and Beaulieu.

Surprised Reinhart is so low..


Why? He couldn't have had more than ~4 ES points when the calendar flipped.

0.5*0+0.5*(Eichel-ish #'s) = 50% Eichel rate.

#13 We've

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 06:14 PM

JAGs. 

 

Jason Dawe was good for us when we had no talent too.



#14 Thorny

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 06:17 PM

Why? He couldn't have had more than ~4 ES points when the calendar flipped.
0.5*0+0.5*(Eichel-ish #'s) = 50% Eichel rate.


Good point.

#15 Randall Flagg

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 06:51 PM

Definitely Jags, but they each have something going for them. 

Nelson still appears to have potential, as he's so green at this level and has improved pretty drastically since his last callup last season. 

 

And Wilson brings not a ton of skill, but things that he took for granted and learned on a helluva good team with incredible players and leaders. Most notably, an inclination towards soft spots in the slot and around the net. Seriously, compare this team's play in the offensive zone before he got here to after. I have seen Baptiste, Pominville, and Nolan recently get glorious chances from hitting those soft spots when all we did before Wilson was flip the puck around the perimeter and take point shots. Wilson was the first guy I noticed taking the puck to the net, and I even remember the specific play where we started posting about it. They're still not great at it, but look at that stretch with 20-90-23 and how they scored all those goals in the Canada trip. That was hockey we haven't seen in ages, and I really believed Scott sorta kick started them into trying to do things like that tic-tac-toe from ROR-Sam-Wilson. 

 

They really appear to me to be better than Larsson/Pouliot/Nolan/Moulson/Griffith/all the other JAGs we have, so I'd like to see them stick over those guys. Replace them when there's an upgrade, but replace the worse guys before you get rid of them.



#16 woods-racer

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 07:01 PM

If they're JAGS, they're the best JAGS we've had in a long time. A lot more to worry about than those 2.


Edited by skogslopp, 23 February 2018 - 07:01 PM.


#17 darksabre

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 07:04 PM

There's a difference between being a jag and being a plug. No one wants to be a plug.

#18 dudacek

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 07:05 PM

There's a difference between being a jag and being a plug. No one wants to be a plug.



How many plugs do we have?
How many do most teams have?

#19 woods-racer

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 07:08 PM

There's a difference between being a jag and being a plug. No one wants to be a plug.

 

Very true.

 

The worst is some of our *wish they met JAG status* guys where acquired to be front line guys, now their not even even plug worthy. Molson, Bogo, I'm looking at you.



#20 Doohickie

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 10:32 PM

Just as important as having stars at the top of your lineup, you need JAGs that can play the team's system without worrying about them making mad gaffs.  I think Wilson and Nelson fit that to a T.



#21 3putt

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 10:34 PM

Wilson jag
Nelson plug

#22 Huckleberry

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Posted 23 February 2018 - 10:36 PM

Nelson is an UFA after the season btw.

 

something with him not having played enough NHL games :P


Edited by blåbär, 23 February 2018 - 10:41 PM.


#23 Randall Flagg

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 09:55 PM

Thinking more on this, it's not even as if Wilson has more talent than any other JAG that has been brought through the Sabre system, but he looks different because he comes from a team that is actually competent at player development. Outside of natural growth for Jack and Sam, describe to me how we have actually effectively developed a single player in the last 10 years, on the ice or off of it. It's just been "sink or swim", and trips up and down the 90, with mediocre attempts at "coaching" and ultimately trading away the "busts". 

 

Look at how high we were on Zemgus when he was drafted, same with Risto, and how happy we were after their initial NHL showings. And yet here they are 4 years later and look exactly the same except for the fact that they're force-fed roles as if they were to naturally be able to cling on while still unable to complete an NHL level pass because player development here is stagnant.


Edited by Randall Flagg, 24 February 2018 - 09:57 PM.


#24 Taro T

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:11 PM

Thinking more on this, it's not even as if Wilson has more talent than any other JAG that has been brought through the Sabre system, but he looks different because he comes from a team that is actually competent at player development. Outside of natural growth for Jack and Sam, describe to me how we have actually effectively developed a single player in the last 10 years, on the ice or off of it. It's just been "sink or swim", and trips up and down the 90, with mediocre attempts at "coaching" and ultimately trading away the "busts". 
 
Look at how high we were on Zemgus when he was drafted, same with Risto, and how happy we were after their initial NHL showings. And yet here they are 4 years later and look exactly the same except for the fact that they're force-fed roles as if they were to naturally be able to cling on while still unable to complete an NHL level pass because player development here is stagnant.


In fairness, until this season since the decision to tank was made, most any player that "should" be getting developed on the farm was either in Buffalo (pre-Eichel arrival) or learning Bylsma's "system in Ra-cha-cha. Where's the opportunity for "development?"

And this next season the lack of home grown talent will officially hit them in the pocket book. There will be a lot (more than this year) of empty seats especially early in the year.

#25 GASabresIUFAN

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Posted 24 February 2018 - 10:18 PM

In fairness, until this season since the decision to tank was made, most any player that "should" be getting developed on the farm was either in Buffalo (pre-Eichel arrival) or learning Bylsma's "system in Ra-cha-cha. Where's the opportunity for "development?"

And this next season the lack of home grown talent will officially hit them in the pocket book. There will be a lot (more than this year) of empty seats especially early in the year.

The funny thing is that next year we might have more homegrown talent on the roster then we have had in years.

 

Draftees

Ullmark

Girgensons

Jack

Sam

Risto

Guhle

plus maybe Mittelstadt, Bailey, Baptiste and/or Olofsson

 

College UFA

ERod,

Nelson

Smith


Edited by GASabresIUFAN, 24 February 2018 - 10:19 PM.