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Prediction time: Will Lehner be traded at the deadline?


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Poll: Train wreck

Will Lehner be traded at the deadline (not what do you want to happen -- what WILL happen)?

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If Lehner is traded, what is MOST the Sabres will get?

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If Lehner is NOT traded, would you want to re-sign him this summer?

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#1 nfreeman

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:29 AM

Let's have 'em.

 

I voted:

 

No -- I cannot see a playoff team giving him the keys to their postseason.

 

4th-rounder -- I cannot see anyone other than a drunk and impulsive GMTM parting with anything of value for him.

 

No -- there have to be consequences for being this big of a disappointment.



#2 Sabel79

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:32 AM

Good one.  

 

I Voted: 

 

No, nobody's taking this one on at this point. 

 

Can probably wriggle a third or equivalent

 

Absolutely not.  Needs to get gone.



#3 N S

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:35 AM

No.

 

2nd.

 

OK.



#4 rekim

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:39 AM

No he wont be traded. there is not a single NHL team that would take him, even if the sabres kept the salary on their books. not a single team. If any GM took him, they would be looking for a job at the end of the season



#5 Alkoholist

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:49 AM

No.

 

2nd.

 

OK.

 

These were my votes too.



#6 GASabresIUFAN

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:53 AM

I voted
1) no on a deadline trade, because I think he’ll be traded this summer most likely as part of a bigger deal
2) 2nd rd pick if traded. This has been the going rate for decent goaltenders. Despite comments to the contray, Lehene is a decent to good goalie, who’d probably excel on a real team.
3) I voted No, but we are missing a 4th option on thr poll. Another 1yr prove it deal for a similar amount. While he hasn’t stolen any games for us, we really haven’tgiven him a chance most nights. We are the worst NHL team in theforst period. Hard to play negind every night.

#7 TrueBlueGED

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:54 AM

Yes

 

4th (I think we get a placeholder goalie in return as well)

 

OK (but highly unenthusiastic)

 

I think some GM will bring him on either because of an injury, or as some insurance against injury to an established starter. That said, if Botterill can't get a warm body to take his place, I don't think a deal happens; Botterill is going to want to keep Ullmark in Rochester.



#8 TrueBlueGED

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:04 AM

I voted
1) no on a deadline trade, because I think he’ll be traded this summer most likely as part of a bigger deal
2) 2nd rd pick if traded. This has been the going rate for decent goaltenders. Despite comments to the contray, Lehene is a decent to good goalie, who’d probably excel on a real team.
3) I voted No, but we are missing a 4th option on thr poll. Another 1yr prove it deal for a similar amount. While he hasn’t stolen any games for us, we really haven’tgiven him a chance most nights. We are the worst NHL team in theforst period. Hard to play negind every night.

 

What about stats? Among goalies with at least 24 starts, he's tied for 26th in the league in cumulative SV% and 19th in 5v5 SV%. He's 27th in the league in GSAA at even strength. He's 28th in the league in high-danger SV%, 18th in mid-danger SV%, and 17th in low-danger SV%. He's basically the textbook definition of mediocre any way you look at it.



#9 nfreeman

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:06 AM

And he is freaking terrible in the 3rd period, OT and the SO.



#10 bunomatic

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:12 AM

Yes

2nd or prospect

NO please



#11 TheCerebral1

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:13 AM

I believe he'll acquire a 2nd round pick or a prospect equivalent.  I'm ready to hand the net to Ullmark or another option at this point.  



#12 LTS

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:13 AM

He's not a true rental.  He's younger.  Some goalie coach will believe they can fix him.

 

He's still better than any goaltender the Islanders have on the roster.

 

Compared to the others likely to be available he'll be the best option.

 

Most critically... there are no shoot outs in the playoffs.



#13 TrueBlueGED

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:15 AM

He's not a true rental.  He's younger.  Some goalie coach will believe they can fix him.

 

He's still better than any goaltender the Islanders have on the roster.

 

Compared to the others likely to be available he'll be the best option.

 

Most critically... there are no shoot outs in the playoffs.

 

That's something I hadn't thought about. Taking it further, OT is also just regular hockey, not 3-on-3.



#14 bunomatic

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:20 AM

Lehner won't get us to the playoffs



#15 TrueBlueGED

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:21 AM

Lehner won't get us to the playoffs

 

To be fair, no goalie not named Hasek would get this particular incarnation of the team to the playoffs :P



#16 bunomatic

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:25 AM

To be fair, no goalie not named Hasek would get this particular incarnation of the team to the playoffs :P

I'm missin me some Dom right now. He had a way of hiding team weaknesses.



#17 dudacek

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:09 PM

I hope he’s gone.
Not a big fan and the exaggeration of his terribleness on here drives me nuts.

#18 Wyldnwoody44

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:15 PM

I hope he's gone, I think a 2nd is in play but he won't be traded at the deadline. He's decent, but not clutch

#19 North Buffalo

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:21 PM

Could get a 2nd if at deadline otherwise probably a 3rd... Would like him gone, but meh if he returns. Bettin he is gone at Trade deadline, but if not he might be here next year unless packaged at draft in a deal.

#20 MattPie

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:50 PM

1: No. I think he could be an asset as a backup to a playoff/bubble team (or maybe a team whose primary GT is UFA), but I don't think a team will be willing to pay enough to make J-Bot disturb the current situation. If it did happen, I could see J-Bot bringing in some rando to backup Johnson for the remaining 20-ish games as opposed to requiring a actual G prospect coming back; I assume he sees the future already in the system.

 

2: 3rd pick/prospect. That's about all I can see coming back.

 

3: I'd be OK giving him ONE more year on a cheap contract, but that's probably less than the $4M he's making today so I'm not sure I see it happening. Off-season deal/arbitration/something has to give, I don't think the guy is good enough to warrant $4M+ next year.



#21 rekim

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:13 PM

To be fair, no goalie not named Hasek would get this particular incarnation of the team to the playoffs :P

 

 

you could have put a team of 12 year olds with hasek and he would find a way to win. i have never seen a goalie like him in my life, and i dont think i will ever again. 



#22 GASabresIUFAN

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:57 PM

What about stats? Among goalies with at least 24 starts, he's tied for 26th in the league in cumulative SV% and 19th in 5v5 SV%. He's 27th in the league in GSAA at even strength. He's 28th in the league in high-danger SV%, 18th in mid-danger SV%, and 17th in low-danger SV%. He's basically the textbook definition of mediocre any way you look at it.

Montreal destroyed their D group and now have guys like Benn, Schelmko and Davidson patrolling their blueline. Weber has been hurt, Alzner slow, and their best D is Petry.  So what has happened to Carey Price's numbers?  They are down with Lehner.

 

No goalie would excel with our D.


Edited by GASabresIUFAN, 12 February 2018 - 02:57 PM.


#23 woods-racer

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 03:09 PM

Isn't he on a one year deal ending in July?

 

I think someone gives up a fourth for a rental/just in case the earth stops rotating goalie.



#24 Alkoholist

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 03:19 PM

Isn't he on a one year deal ending in July?

 

I think someone gives up a fourth for a rental/just in case the earth stops rotating goalie.

 

He's an RFA so there is still team control to work out a longer deal assuming whomever we trade him to would like to keep him.



#25 woods-racer

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 03:22 PM

He's an RFA so there is still team control to work out a longer deal assuming whomever we trade him to would like to keep him.

 

Thanks, forgot about the RFA/UFA status.



#26 nfreeman

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 05:33 PM

Montreal destroyed their D group and now have guys like Benn, Schelmko and Davidson patrolling their blueline. Weber has been hurt, Alzner slow, and their best D is Petry. So what has happened to Carey Price's numbers? They are down with Lehner.

No goalie would excel with our D.


This is the ultimate “stats vs common sense” comment.

Price is a possible HOFer. Lehner is likely in his 2nd and last year as an NHL starter.

Price is having a down year on a team in decline. Lehner is simply showing that he doesn’t have the right stuff.

Leaving contracts aside, is there a hockey fan, observer, coach or GM anywhere who wouldn’t rather have Price for the next 4 seasons than Lehner?

Of course not.

#27 dudacek

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 07:29 PM

This is the ultimate “stats vs common sense” comment.
Price is a possible HOFer. Lehner is likely in his 2nd and last year as an NHL starter.
Price is having a down year on a team in decline. Lehner is simply showing that he doesn’t have the right stuff.
Leaving contracts aside, is there a hockey fan, observer, coach or GM anywhere who wouldn’t rather have Price for the next 4 seasons than Lehner?
Of course not.


Why don’t you use this logic when you compare Lehner to his peers?

#28 We've

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:03 PM

What about stats? Among goalies with at least 24 starts, he's tied for 26th in the league in cumulative SV% and 19th in 5v5 SV%. He's 27th in the league in GSAA at even strength. He's 28th in the league in high-danger SV%, 18th in mid-danger SV%, and 17th in low-danger SV%. He's basically the textbook definition of mediocre any way you look at it.

 

I'm not sure whether I miss JJ's "goals on a Tuesday in months with less than 6 letters" description of advanced stats because it was entertaining in its ignorance,  or glad to not have the noise.



#29 dudacek

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:14 PM


38 goalies have played 100 games since Lehner became a Sabre.
Lehner ranks 12 in save percentage over that span.

There are 31 starting jobs in the league and 10-15 good goalies.
Lehner ain’t great, but his haters lack perspective.
He will be starting somewhere.

Edited by Mick O’Manly, 12 February 2018 - 08:18 PM.


#30 rekim

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:24 PM

38 goalies have played 100 games since Lehner became a Sabre.
Lehner ranks 12 in save percentage over that span.

There are 31 starting jobs in the league and 10-15 good goalies.
Lehner ain’t great, but his haters lack perspective.
He will be starting somewhere.

 

 

argentina?



#31 nfreeman

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:43 PM

Why don’t you use this logic when you compare Lehner to his peers?

 

Which logic am I omitting to use?

 

The common sense/eye test approach yields the unavoidable verdict that he's someone who goes to pieces in crunch time, who repeats the same killer mistakes (coming off the post, depositing fat rebounds on the doorstep, not cutting off the crossing pass, etc.) over and over and who simply does not deliver wins.

 

In addition, in Lehner's case (unlike with Price), the common sense/eye test approach is consistent with the stats -- Lehner is in the bottom 20% of NHL starters.

 

I don't disagree that there is a good tier of goalies and a mediocre tier, and that Lehner COULD be part of the mediocre tier along with 10-12 others and COULD be starting somewhere else next year.  However, (i) there is a significant likelihood that he is instead in the "bad enough to be below the mediocre tier and thus not starting somewhere next year" tier and (ii) we've all seen plenty of him at this point -- wouldn't you rather take a shot on someone else?  Maybe the next Gibson or Anderson or Schneider or Bernier or Vasilevsky (which Lehner was supposed to be but isn't)?



#32 dudacek

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:06 PM

I was mostly thinking of Halak, who you have suggested in the past is equal or superior despite Lehner’s superior performance over each of the past three years.

I think you throw out the Lehner stats because of the eye test, but I doubt you’ve applied the eye test to all to a lot of the goalies you assume are better than Lehner.

Edited by Mick O’Manly, 12 February 2018 - 09:55 PM.


#33 ubkev

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:06 PM

No

4th

NO, fcuk that!

#34 dudacek

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:42 PM

Which logic am I omitting to use?

The common sense/eye test approach yields the unavoidable verdict that he's someone who goes to pieces in crunch time, who repeats the same killer mistakes (coming off the post, depositing fat rebounds on the doorstep, not cutting off the crossing pass, etc.) over and over and who simply does not deliver wins.

In addition, in Lehner's case (unlike with Price), the common sense/eye test approach is consistent with the stats -- Lehner is in the bottom 20% of NHL starters.

I don't disagree that there is a good tier of goalies and a mediocre tier, and that Lehner COULD be part of the mediocre tier along with 10-12 others and COULD be starting somewhere else next year. However, (i) there is a significant likelihood that he is instead in the "bad enough to be below the mediocre tier and thus not starting somewhere next year" tier and (ii) we've all seen plenty of him at this point -- wouldn't you rather take a shot on someone else? Maybe the next Gibson or Anderson or Schneider or Bernier or Vasilevsky (which Lehner was supposed to be but isn't)?

My beef has never been with those who want a better goalie. It’s with those who don’t understand that virtually half the teams in the league have goalies like Lehner.

Let’s take Blue’s stats and those alone: according to those, he’s the definition of a mediocre starter, somewhere between 17th and 28th.
It’s not that he COULD be in the tier of mediocre starters. He IS in the the tier of mediocre starters.

Again, 12th in save percentage over the past three years. Let’s say the Sabres style propped him up 10 spots. He’s still putting up starting goalie numbers.

Then consider how many goalies are flunking the eye test, and how goalie fortunes rise and fall from year to year.
Ask Canes fans about Scott Darling’s flaws this year, or Oilers fans about Talbot. Remember how bad Mike Smith was for Phoenix and how good Craig Anderson was for Ottawa?

It’s not like there are 10-12 of those mediocre guys battling for 4-5 spots. Virtually all of the guys in that tier will be starting somewhere next year.

The 38 goalies who have started 100 NHL games, in order of save percentage over that period.

Spoiler

Edited by Mick O’Manly, 12 February 2018 - 09:43 PM.


#35 pi2000

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:07 PM

there are worse goalies... they just don't play in the NHL.

#36 nfreeman

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:48 PM

I’ve seen a good amount of Halak, as he plays in town here. He’s had a rocky year this year but was at least as good as Lehner last year and the year before. He also handled a similarly dysfunctional situation better than Lehner did.

If you’re going to consider sv% over the past 3 years as a persuasive stat — which is reasonable— then Blue’s point about him being 26th in sv% this year is similarly persuasive. And 26th is below the mediocre tier and solidly in the “likely not a starter next year” tier.

It’s also worth noting IMHO that his sv% has gotten worse each year during that period. This is part of the reason I don’t think I’m “throwing out the stats” (although I admit to throwing them out when it comes to comparing Lehner and Price, as I suspect pretty much everyone would).