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Sabres Lost Point Countdown: 17

too soon?

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#1 MattiPaj

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 04:27 PM

HALFWAY POINT EXTRAVAGANZA!

 

How this thread works:

Last year coming out of the All-star break, the Sabres had 60 points and 22 games remaining. Working on assumption that 93 points is roughly where the playoff bubble sits at the end of the season, the Sabres needed 33 of 44 available points to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Starting out the year, there are 164 points available minus 94 points (I'm moving the bubble up a point) == 70 points that can be lost before making the playoffs becomes rather unlikely. I wasn't really going to update it all season, but why not.

 

Might as well start calculating paces and records. After game #41 on 1/5:

Team Points: 29

Games Played: 41 (RJ-voice: HALFWAY THROUGH THE SEASON!)

Points per game to reach 94 points: 1.585

Season Points at that pace: 130 (!!!!)

Record per 10: 8-2-0, 7-1-2, 6-0-4

Win streak to get back to 94-point pace: 21 games (!!)

 

Hope isn't lost, folks, all the Sabres need to do is win-out the next 1/4 of the season, and they'll be right on the playoff bubble!


Edited by MattiPaj, 05 January 2018 - 10:53 PM.


#2 Anordning

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 04:35 PM

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#3 Georgia Flakt

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 05:31 PM

Shouldn’t the countdown start at 164?

#4 Vile Vedartad Fyrtiofyra

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 07:36 PM

Aw man, this thread is gonna suck when we score 164 points this season

#5 Georgia Flakt

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 09:04 PM

1 pt given away in game 1.

#6 Let's Go B-Lo

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 11:47 PM

Never too soon to start.  This was a group effort though.  If we miss out by one point in the end the goal that RoR gave up, followed up by that crap shortie to tie it and an 0 for 3 shutout are going to taste bad in retrospect.



#7 Kottbullar

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 04:11 AM

Yes, but might as well track... Sabres played tight in 3rd...

#8 MattiPaj

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Posted 09 October 2017 - 02:29 PM

How this thread works:

Last year coming out of the All-star break, the Sabres had 60 points and 22 games remaining. Working on assumption that 93 points is roughly where the playoff bubble sits at the end of the season, the Sabres needed 33 of 44 available points to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Starting out the year, 164 available - 94 points (I'm moving the bubble up a point) == 70 points that can be lost before making the playoffs becomes rather unlikely. I wasn't really going to update it all season, but why not.

 

So we started at 70, they've lost 3 so far this season (pending today's outcome), so they're at 67.


Edited by MattPie, 09 October 2017 - 02:29 PM.


#9 MattiPaj

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 10:22 AM

Update after 11 games. The Sabres have lost 14 points (6 losses, 2 OT), so they sit at 56 points remaining. To reach 94 for the season, they need to manage 1.21 points per game, or a 99.3-point place over 82 games. That's 6 points per 5 game block, 3-2-0 or 2-1-2.



#10 Sabersfläkt i NS

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 11:45 AM

Update after 11 games. The Sabres have lost 14 points (6 losses, 2 OT), so they sit at 56 points remaining. To reach 94 for the season, they need to manage 1.21 points per game, or a 99.3-point place over 82 games. That's 6 points per 5 game block, 3-2-0 or 2-1-2.

 

Certainly not out of the range of possible outcomes.



#11 MattiPaj

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 11:55 AM

Certainly not out of the range of possible outcomes.

 

Nah, at this stage of the season win or point streak of 4-5 games makes a huge difference.



#12 CallawaySabres

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 12:47 PM

Sabres have a VERY favorable schedule coming up over the next 10 games or so and if they are to save this season, that stretch will do it.



#13 Mustasch av gud

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 12:48 PM

Nah, at this stage of the season win or point streak of 4-5 games makes a huge difference.

 

I have no faith in this team stringing together a 4-5 game point streak.



#14 MattiPaj

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 12:57 PM

I have no faith in this team stringing together a 4-5 game point streak.

 

No argument here.



#15 Vile Vedartad Fyrtiofyra

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 07:21 PM

Sabres have a VERY favorable schedule coming up over the next 10 games or so and if they are to save this season, that stretch will do it.


You've become more optimistic lately, what flipped the switch? Please say good drugs :)

#16 MattiPaj

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 11:13 AM

The Sabres need to play ~.600 (points%) for the rest of the season to get to 94 points. That's a 99 point pace, 6 points out of every 5 games. Least year, a 99-point season is 6th place in the East. It's not hopeless, but if this goes on for too much longer it's going to be tough sledding. If they play .500 for the next 10, they'll need 1.25 points per game for the rest of the season, a 102-point pace, or 4-5th in the East last year. Unless the system really starts to click, I have a tough time seeing this team run at a 102-point pace for 5 months. And that's just to get to 94 points; 94 points missed last year, 8th was 95.

 

Math is an unforgiving mistress. I was always a believer that you could come back from early season woes (Lindy's teams conditioned me), but I'm mostly turned around on that now.

 

I'm quoting myself over here since it fits in this thread in addition to a forgettable GDT.



#17 CallawaySabres

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 12:47 PM

You've become more optimistic lately, what flipped the switch? Please say good drugs :)

 

That Detroit game was the one that really showed me what these guys can do if they play a full game and commit to Defense. I suppose the offense has to come along at some point as well. I was infuriated at how this team started and to think the season was over mid October was sickening. I really have no idea if this group can compete for a top 8 spot and my passion for all things Buffalo will no doubt be the end of me.



#18 Vile Vedartad Fyrtiofyra

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 02:03 PM

That Detroit game was the one that really showed me what these guys can do if they play a full game and commit to Defense. I suppose the offense has to come along at some point as well. I was infuriated at how this team started and to think the season was over mid October was sickening. I really have no idea if this group can compete for a top 8 spot and my passion for all things Buffalo will no doubt be the end of me.


I understand that, it just seems to drag ya back in, I went to the Detroit game, but unfortunately, Detroit just isn't that good, I don't think.

Here's to hoping the beers are in celebration in the next months, instead of in sorrow!

#19 CallawaySabres

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 03:07 PM

I understand that, it just seems to drag ya back in, I went to the Detroit game, but unfortunately, Detroit just isn't that good, I don't think.

Here's to hoping the beers are in celebration in the next months, instead of in sorrow!

 

Keep within striking distance of 8th until April is all that I ask.....which really is not a lot.



#20 MattiPaj

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Posted 21 November 2017 - 10:54 AM

Too Soon? :)

 

How this thread works:

Last year coming out of the All-star break, the Sabres had 60 points and 22 games remaining. Working on assumption that 93 points is roughly where the playoff bubble sits at the end of the season, the Sabres needed 33 of 44 available points to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Starting out the year, there are 164 points available minus 94 points (I'm moving the bubble up a point) == 70 points that can be lost before making the playoffs becomes rather unlikely. I wasn't really going to update it all season, but why not.

 

Might as well start calculating paces and records. After game #21 on 11/20:

Team points: 14

Games Played: 21

Points per game to reach 94 points: 1.290

Season points at that pace: 106

Record per 10: 6-3-1, 5-2-3, 4-1-5

Win streak to get back to 94-point pace: 11.7 games

 

Updated. It's not looking good. I'd be pretty surprised if this team has it in them to win-out 2017, or on-average be the 5th-best team in the league until April (based on last year's finishing standings).



#21 Georgia Flakt

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 11:24 PM

This team is done for the season.

#22 Thorny

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 11:45 PM

Updated. It's not looking good. I'd be pretty surprised if this team has it in them to win-out 2017, or on-average be the 5th-best team in the league until April (based on last year's finishing standings).


For the same reason, Edmonton's chances are looking bleak. Who would have thought? They'd need to catch fire.

Edit: They did win today.

Edited by Thorny, 22 November 2017 - 11:45 PM.


#23 MattiPaj

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 03:14 PM

Update:

24 games played

16 points

32 lost points (getting close to the halfway point)



#24 Sabersfläkt i NS

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 03:23 PM

Update:

24 games played

16 points

32 lost points (getting close to the halfway point)

 

Oh, the humanity!!



#25 MattiPaj

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 03:25 PM

Oh, the humanity!!

 

As god as my witness, I thought turkeys Sabres could fly!



#26 blåbär

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 11:53 PM

This is getting ugly quite fast huh ?



#27 MattiPaj

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 01:41 PM

This is getting ugly quite fast huh ?

 

Indeed, the math is nearly insurmountable at this point. The numbers say they need to play at a 110-point place for the rest of the season. The 06-07 President's Cup team had 113 points for the season.


Edited by MattPie, 28 November 2017 - 01:41 PM.


#28 MattiPaj

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Posted 02 December 2017 - 06:05 AM

Indeed, the math is nearly insurmountable at this point. The numbers say they need to play at a 110-point place for the rest of the season. The 06-07 President's Cup team had 113 points for the season.

 

114 now, with another Pens game tonight. Remember how 06-07 felt and you went into every game thinking they were gonna win? That's the team the Sabres need to be just to get to 94 points this year.



#29 blåbär

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Posted 02 December 2017 - 07:49 AM

I need a hug :(



#30 Anordning

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Posted 05 December 2017 - 09:25 AM

Depressing:  I just checked the standings and we're only 8 points behind.... the second worst team in the conference.  Tank on.



#31 MattiPaj

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:20 PM

Too Soon? :)

 

How this thread works:

Last year coming out of the All-star break, the Sabres had 60 points and 22 games remaining. Working on assumption that 93 points is roughly where the playoff bubble sits at the end of the season, the Sabres needed 33 of 44 available points to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Starting out the year, there are 164 points available minus 94 points (I'm moving the bubble up a point) == 70 points that can be lost before making the playoffs becomes rather unlikely. I wasn't really going to update it all season, but why not.

 

Might as well start calculating paces and records. After game #26 on 12/01:

Team points: 16

Games Played: 26

Points per game to reach 94 points: 1.393

Season points at that pace: 114

Record per 10: 7-3-0, 6-2-2, 5-1-4, 4-0-6

Win streak to get back to 94-point pace: 16.1 games

 

 

Team Points: 22 (!!!)

Games Played: 31

Points per game to reach 94 points: 1.412

Season Points at that pace: 116

Record per 10: 7-3-0, 6-2-2, 5-1-4, 4-0-6

Win streak to get back to 94-point pace: 15.9



#32 Jokertecken

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Posted 12 December 2017 - 10:29 PM

That last stat is my favorite

#33 MattiPaj

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Posted 13 December 2017 - 10:14 AM

That last stat is my favorite

 

I enjoy it too. It quells the people that say, "we just need to string a few wins together and we're right back in it". I suppose they're right if "a few" is defined as "all the games until the all-star break".



#34 Sabersfläkt i NS

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Posted 13 December 2017 - 10:36 AM

I enjoy it too. It quells the people that say, "we just need to string a few wins together and we're right back in it". I suppose they're right if "a few" is defined as "all the games until the all-star break".

 

Hey, 1 down ... and a whole bunch to go.



#35 DarthBerusad

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Posted 13 December 2017 - 02:34 PM

I enjoy it too. It quells the people that say, "we just need to string a few wins together and we're right back in it". I suppose they're right if "a few" is defined as "all the games until the all-star break".

We just need to string a few sixteen wins together and we're right back in it.

 

Points per game to reach docking bay 94

94.



#36 MattiPaj

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Posted 05 January 2018 - 10:52 PM

Half-way extravaganza!



#37 blåbär

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Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:04 AM

We got them right where we want them, we'll come out of nowhere :P



#38 SkuggaLiger

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Posted 07 January 2018 - 11:15 AM

Storm troopers at the door?