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Mom's Basement Stakes

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#1 rakish

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 07:34 AM

Reddit found McKenzie's list leaked a couple days ago, and I got some paying work coming up, so I decided to get this done today.

 

Since I couldn't drum up any interest from Sabres' pundits, I considered moving to Las Vegas, those 5,6 or 8 top 40 picks would've been fun, but, I'm no fun. If Botterill trades pick 8 before draft day, I will re-reconsider. Unless we have a (very welcome) late entry, these are our six contestants.

 

I'm going to do something new with Bob's list. His 100 runs out after the first 5 rounds, so I'm going to tack on the CSS NA list so he gets all his picks. Bob's list is stronger than I expected as many of the weaker picks have slid past 8.

 

Also from reddit comes Corey Pronman.

 

From TSN comes Craig Button. If you haven't be following Mom's, Craig had a very good 2014, but 2015 and 2016, as yet, not so much.

 

Botterill gets his picks. He has the biggest advantage since I might choose someone in the 2nd round that he picks in the 3rd, but if he chooses someone in the 2nd, they come off the board, I don't get to pick him in the 3rd. That, and he has a staff, and gets to interview the kids, and gets all the exercise data.

 

Canucksarmy has a list similar in technique to mine. I don't see a complete list link at canucks army, but here's the first 8.

 

#1 - Nolen Patrick
#2 - Nico Hischier
#3 – Cody Glass
#4 – Gabriel Vilardi
#5 – Elias Pettersson
#6 – Timothy Liljegren
#7 – Casey Mittelstadt
#8 – Nick Suzuki

 

My list will reshuffle a bit if Botterill trades #8 and I move to Vegas (basically Boqvist moves down, as I hope to get him with the 30th pick instead of the 15th pick), but this is it as it stands now. I obviously don't list everyone, for instance Rasmussen will be long gone by the time my list would get to him. I'll be back after the draft to list who each contestant chose.

 

Nolan Patrick                
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN            
ELIAS PETTERSSON             
NICHOLAS SUZUKI                
NICO HISCHIER                
GABRIEL VILARDI                
JESPER BOQVIST                
CALLAN FOOTE                
JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI                
ERIK BRÄNNSTRÖM                
LIAS ANDERSSON                
KAILER YAMAMOTO                
URHO VAAKANAINEN            
Connor Timmins                
Mason Shaw                 
JASON ROBERTSON                
Joshua Brook                
Mikey Anderson                
MARCUS DAVIDSSON             
KOLE LIND                
Nicolas Hague                
Robin Salo                
ARTYOM MINULIN                
HENRI JOKIHARJU                
DAVID FARRANCE                
Cale Fleury                
IGOR SHVYRYOV                    
BRINSON PASICHNUK                
DENIS SMIRNOV                    
KRISTAPS ZILE                    
DYLAN COGHLAN                    
ANDREI ALTYBARMAKYAN                
PETRUS PALMU                    
JERRY TURKULAINEN  or  ARTYOM MANUKYAN   or ZACH SOLOW     
GUSTAV LINDSTRÖM             
NICHOLAS CAMPOLI            
KLIM KOSTIN                
BRYCE MISLEY                
ROBERT THOMAS                
ROMAN IVASHOV                    
JOHNNY KOVACEVIC                
JOSEPH DUSZAK                    
Phillipe Myers                    
WILL REILLY                    
KRIS MYLLARI                    
BRENNAN MENELL                    
PAVEL YELSHANSKY                
MATTHEW BRASSARD                
IVAN KOVALYOV                    
Matt Timms                    
KEVIN HANCOCK                    
William Pethrus                    
DMITRI RODIONYCHEV                
MAX GILDON                                    
Scooter Brickley                
BEN MIRAGEAS                    
Ivan Lodnia
PAVEL SHEN
FABIAN ZETTERLUND            
FILIP CHYTIL                
MAXIM MIZYURIN                    
JERRY TURKULAINEN or  ARTYOM MANUKYAN   or ZACH SOLOW     
JERRY TURKULAINEN or  ARTYOM MANUKYAN   or ZACH SOLOW     
Dominik Lakatos  

 

 

 

 

 

 



#2 ShadowLiger

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 07:39 AM

I wish I had time this year but for the next 3 weeks I am going to be slammed. 



#3 ShadowLiger

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:32 PM

Rakish I think should explain the rules more clearly to those who may be interested. Even I am a little fuzzy on it.



#4 Eleven

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 12:36 PM

Rakish I think should explain the rules more clearly to those who may be interested. Even I am a little fuzzy on it.

 

Agreed.  I have no idea what's going on or what anything has to do with the thread title.  I am completely at sea here.



#5 rakish

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:02 PM

My apologies

 

The intent is to see how different methodologies work as far as drafting. So the draft contest, called Mom's Basement Stakes, compares the draft of different pundits that produce draft lists.

 

Let's look at an example of how it works. This is Button's top 10

 

1 Hishier
2 Patrick
3 Makar
4 Glass
5 Heiskanen
6 Valardi
7 Necas
8 Pettersson
9 Mittlestadt
10 Lilgegren

 

If, at pick 8, Hishier, Patrick, Makar, Mittlestadt, Lilgegren, Suzuki, and Foote have been drafted, then Button, for pick 8, would get Glass.

 

Under the same scenario, my top 10 looks like

 

Nolan Patrick                
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN            
ELIAS PETTERSSON             
NICHOLAS SUZUKI                
NICO HISCHIER                
GABRIEL VILARDI                
JESPER BOQVIST                
CALLAN FOOTE                
JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI  

 

And as Pettersson is the highest undrafted player on my board, I would get him at pick 8 (if Buffalo uses pick 8)

 

The top of Pronman's board looks like:

1     Nico Hischier     C     Halifax     QMJHL
2     Nolan Patrick     C     Brandon     WHL
3     Gabriel Vilardi     C     Windsor     OHL
4     Cody Glass     C     Portland     WHL
5     Nick Suzuki     C     Owen Sound     OHL
6     Owen Tippett     RW     Mississauga     OHL
7     Eeli Tolvanen     RW     Sioux City     USHL
8     Miro Heiskanen     D     HIFK     Liiga
9     Klim Kostin     C/LW     Dynamo Moscow     KHL
10     Kristian Vesalainen     LW/RW     Frolunda     SHL
 

Under this scenario, Pronman would get Vilardi at 8.

 

We do the same analysis for each Buffalo pick, and the group of picks will denote the pundits team for that season, then we watch how the different teams do.  So my team will look something like

#8 - Pettersson

#37 - Boqvist

#58 - Joshua Brook

#74 - Denis Smirnov

etc.

 

If you look at past drafts, at www.45b.us, say 2014. You'll see Button had a real nice draft with 5 players that are still prospects or playing well. I'm second, Hockey News and Tim Murray are being crushed, Hockey News partly to injury (Axel Holmstrom) and partly that Sam Bennett has not fared well the past couple years.

 

In the end, it's a learning tool, each year I see the things that work and the things that don't work, and try to correct them.



#6 ShadowLiger

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:09 PM

So basically rank a list of players paying special attention to where Buffalo will pick. You will probably have to rank about the top 100-150 players to get all the way through the draft. This is your draft board and you must take the highest ranked player left at each of Buffalo's positions. 


For example when I rank Jokiharju at #20 on my list and he is there at #38 I get him at #38 if the other 19 players ahead of him are taken. So if you hate a prospect, don't put them on your list. For example Kempe and Boeser would have been higher on my list then they were drafted. In Kempe's case I wouldn't have gotten him anyways. In Boeser's case I would have, thanks Obama. 



#7 rakish

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Posted 19 June 2017 - 01:26 PM

Right, the number of players on your list depends on how mainstream you are. McKenzie will run out of picks even though he has 100.

 

In my case Tippett will be gone before Boqvist, and since I prefer Boqvist, there's really no need to have Tippett on my list.



#8 rakish

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 08:45 PM

How do I change the topic to make is Mom's Basement Stakes (rakii's draft contest)?

 

The results are in, we next look at this for the WJC to see how your players did. It's actually a good first indicator.

 

Botterill:
8 Casey Mittelstadt (C/LW)
37 Marcus Davidsson (C/W)
54 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (G)                                               
89 Oskari Laaksonen (D)
99 Jacob Bryson (D)                                          
192 Linus Weissbach (LW/RW)

rakish:
8 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN (D)
37 Mason Shaw (F)
54 Joshua Brook (D)
89 Mikey Anderson (D)
99 ARTYOM MINULIN (D)
192 BRINSON PASICHNUK (D)

Craig Button:
8 Gabriel Vilardi ©
37 Alexei Lipanov ©
54 Morgan Geekie (C/RW)
89 Evan Barratt ©
99 Matthew Strome (LW)
192 Cayden Primeau (G)

Pronman
8 Gabriel Vilardi C
37 Ivan Lodnia     RW
54 Joni Ikonen (C/RW)
89 David Farrance D
99 Markus Phillips (D)
192 David Kvasnicka     D

McKenzie
8 Gabe Vilardi C
37 Jason Robertson (LW)
54 Michael DiPietro (G)
89 Ostap Safin (RW)
99 Lucas Elvenes (RW)
192 Cayden Primeau (G)

canucksarmy
8 Gabriel Vilardi ©
37 Aleksi Heponiemi ©
54 Grant Mismash ©
89 Mason Shaw ©
99 Matthew Strome (LW)
192 Artyom Minulin (D)

wingnut
8 Vilardi, Gabriel ©
37 Maxime Comtois (C/LW)
54 Nikita A. Popugayev (RW)
89 Matthew Strome (LW)
99 Ostap Safin (RW)
192 Artem Minulin (D)



 



#9 Taro T

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 10:43 PM

REALLY wanted Farrance @ 89.

Felix's roommate would've still been there @ 99.

#10 ShadowLiger

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Posted 25 June 2017 - 09:53 PM

REALLY wanted Farrance @ 89.

Felix's roommate would've still been there @ 99.

I think that was my biggest gripe with this draft. 







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