Jump to content


Photo

Reinhart, does he fit JBots mold?


  • Please log in to reply
76 replies to this topic

#41 Scottysabres

Scottysabres

    Fourth Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 500 posts

Posted 07 June 2017 - 07:36 PM

Your stipulating day 1.
I stipulated month 1.
Lets at least try and stay on subject.

#42 Randall Flagg

Randall Flagg

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,630 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:WNY

Posted 07 June 2017 - 07:42 PM

Convince me Slavin is better then Risto. 

 

As for Aho, I love him but I am not sold on selling out on Sam.

 

Let me know when the project is done. I'd like to see how Slavin is clearly better then Risto. I like Slavins game but Risto has all kinds of offensive potential

Sorry my bad

I totally get the reluctance to believe it, because who tf has heard anything about Slavin, right? I did not finish the season believing this even though I have a well-documented, perhaps undeserved crush on the way that franchise is set up and in particular is coaching their players. 

The "project" is simply doing the transition play decisions that I counted for the Sabres this year for the Hurricanes, who were the subject of my big system analysis which I used to illustrate why I didn't like Bylsma's system. I was bored so I decided to finish gathering statistics and see what they say about the situation. I was going to ask Sabrespace when I was done if it was desired that I shared the results, because now that Dan is gone it's not like I'm actually lobbying for anything. But it still could be fun to look at.

 

But anyway, I was watching them in particular because they were a team that is low on talent yet curiously posting very good possession metrics, and I wondered why a team with like 2 guys who scored 20 goals last year compared to our 6 or 7 could play that way. It was immediately obvious in the way they built up their transition game. It's exactly what you want to see in today's NHL, and I made the contention that if the Sabres had spent the past two years working to build chemistry in a system like that they'd be a force.

The driving force of this system was the defenseman making the correct decisions with ample forward support and options. And to my surprise, Justin Faulk was not the guy that drove it. It all went through number 74. He has Samson's brain on the back end. Defensively, he has to work on those minor details like taking the body at the right time and stuff, but his decision making, stickwork, and gap control were as good as Risto's. He is quicker and has better edgework. Risto's edge defensively is his ability to play the body. I will have the supporting videos for his skill set if I end up posting the finishing results of my season-long analysis of Carolina's system. 

We'll look at two more facets of their game - first, their play in the o-zone and scoring. Risto put up 11 more points than Jaccob did, but Slavin outscored him 26 points to 19 at even strength. Risto averaged 3:11 of power play time per game while Slavin averaged 0:55. Risto is 1.) probably a better PPQB and 2.) on the best power play in the league. This is not to take anything away from Rasmus. And getting Rasmus into an activated system like Carolina's will likely require us nightly changes of our pants. But Slavin is great on the point is well, and I saw a couple mind-blowing fake shot slap passes directly for one timer goals that were very high skill plays. Overall, I'll still give the offensive edge to Risto because in the end, points are points and I think Risto has the potential to be a regular 55-60 point d-man in a real system.

Most importantly for me, it's the transition play. Slavin is the single best defenseman under the age of 24 I've seen in the NHL at making the correct pass on the tape to leave the zone every single goddamn time. He's a machine. I sincerely struggle to name 5 defensemen in the NHL who do it better. You'll see what I mean when I post examples. His decision-making is sublime and his insistence on keeping possession at all costs is a dream come true. And he is a very solid skater, so can lug it up the ice himself. Before this project I thought, by name recognition, that Faulk was going to be the machine. But Faulk actually deviates from what they try to do a lot. He skates it himself, forces everyone to stop, and fires it around the boards as much as he'll give the puck to someone else. Slavin actively does everything he can to eliminate plays which don't result in clear possession in space for his team. Risto's transition game cannot possibly be fairly evaluated at this point because of the system he was put in, which was the point of the whole thing I did in the first place. But in a vacuum he looks a lot worse at that aspect because of that, and until he proves he can be as effficient as what I'm watching 74 do in Carolina I'm going to assume he can't, because there are not many defensemen in the world that can do what I see him doing. 

TLDR: Slavin transitions the puck the way the ideal modern defenseman does, and the point differential between the two isn't enough to elevate that above Slavin's skills for me, especially because he doesn't get PP time and outproduces Risto noticeably at even strength. 


And I funking love Risto - I think he's in a group of 4 elite defensemen in his age group (which I'll call under 24) - Slavin, Risto, Jones, and Ekblad. With guys like Werenski and Provorov soon to jump in.



#43 ShadowLiger

ShadowLiger

    Third Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,216 posts

Posted 07 June 2017 - 07:46 PM

Your stipulating day 1.
I stipulated month 1.
Lets at least try and stay on subject.

Really? I should stay on subject... let's quote your first post to which I simply asked to give the coach more time...


Perhaps, but the start of the season line up will be a metric with which to gauge the new coach, whomever that may be.

The start of the season is day 1. You keep changing the goal posts. I think that this idea is incorrect that the new coach should be judged on his start of the season (day 1) lineup. 

I feel like we are going in circles lol. Let's see who the coach is and then see what they do. 

 

 

 

 


Well Randall I am not going to lie that is a really convincing argument. I have to take back my barf joke now  :lol:


Edited by ShadowLiger, 07 June 2017 - 07:49 PM.


#44 Randall Flagg

Randall Flagg

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,630 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:WNY

Posted 07 June 2017 - 07:49 PM

Really? I should stay on subject... let's quote your first post to which I simply asked to give the coach more time...


The start of the season is day 1. You keep changing the goal posts. I think that this idea is incorrect that the new coach should be judged on his start of the season (day 1) lineup. 


Well Randall I am not going to lie that is a really convincing argument. I have to take back my barf joke now  :lol:

If Carolina was Chicago and not the team most likely to be relocated next, we'd all have known all of that by now. He's like the best kept secret in the NHL. I think they'd move any defenseman on their team before him.

A sidenote - if a Reinhart-Hanifin trade did really happen, it'd sting like hell to lose Samson, but Hanifin is worthy. I think the value, plus a small add from one team or the other, is pretty much dead on. Ultimately I'd like to look elsewhere and keep Samson but that's one trade I wouldn't die from. 



#45 Scottysabres

Scottysabres

    Fourth Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 500 posts

Posted 07 June 2017 - 08:04 PM

Really? I should stay on subject... let's quote your first post to which I simply asked to give the coach more time...

The start of the season is day 1. You keep changing the goal posts. I think that this idea is incorrect that the new coach should be judged on his start of the season (day 1) lineup. 
I feel like we are going in circles lol. Let's see who the coach is and then see what they do. 
 
 
 
 
Well Randall I am not going to lie that is a really convincing argument. I have to take back my barf joke now  :lol:

Yes, stay on subject. October was my original post. You know it. No reason to throw a hissy fit over my analysis.
The coach is the pivot point. If Bylsma taught you nothing, that isn't my fault.

The origins of my response to you was you stating you thought Reinhart nets 60+, I said we shall see and then went on to explain my reasoning behind that comment.

You disagreed, I countered with my analysis on my comment. You persisted, I snarked to piss you off to prove My point. I coached the conversation at a certain point, coaching can achieve its desired effect, and to think, it took me less than a day.....and I'm just an average Joe. What do you think a hockey coach worth their grain of salt can achieve? Especially with the forward talent this team has?

Neither here nor there, I was having a bit of fun at a certain point, the over laying conversation opinion I had originally still stands, and I stand on solid evidence, re: Bylsma.

#46 ShadowLiger

ShadowLiger

    Third Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,216 posts

Posted 07 June 2017 - 08:08 PM

Yes, stay on subject. October was my original post. You know it. No reason to throw a hissy fit over my analysis.
The coach is the pivot point. If Bylsma taught you nothing, that isn't my fault.

The origins of my response to you was you stating you thought Reinhart nets 60+, I said we shall see and then went on to explain my reasoning behind that comment.

You disagreed, I countered with my analysis on my comment. You persisted, I snarked to piss you off to prove My point. I coached the conversation at a certain point, coaching can achieve its desired effect, and to think, it took me less than a day.....and I'm just an average Joe. What do you think a hockey coach worth their grain of salt can achieve? Especially with the forward talent this team has?

Neither here nor there, I was having a bit of fun at a certain point, the over laying conversation opinion I had originally still stands, and I stand on solid evidence, re: Bylsma.

Okay, you win. 


Edited by ShadowLiger, 07 June 2017 - 08:17 PM.


#47 LikeEich

LikeEich

    Prospect

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 57 posts

Posted 07 June 2017 - 08:36 PM

?

Sure it does. How much can a coach learn about his players who aren't in town until September if he gets the job at the en of June? He'll have some knowledge but he won't be able to figure out the chemistry of that team for a little.


Didn't see you reply when I posted, seemed like I copied what you said

#48 Thorny

Thorny

    Supreme Mugwump

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,258 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Buffalo, some day

Posted 07 June 2017 - 08:57 PM

So if Reinhart is in the long term plans, should/will Botterill attempt to extend him this summer? I still think he's getting traded, but an extension would be music to my ears.

#49 spndnchz

spndnchz

    Ass. Player Agent

  • SS Mod Team
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,401 posts
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:Doormat

Posted 07 June 2017 - 10:44 PM

I'm calling 60pts for Reinhart this season


In buffalo?

#50 dudacek

dudacek

    ...browsing the internet

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,026 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Listening to offers — eyes and ears

Posted 07 June 2017 - 10:55 PM

Samson would be better off signing next summer after his 60 point season

Samson comparables coming off their entry deals:
Huberdeau spent his post-draft year in JR, then put up 31*, 28, and 54 point seasons
He signed a two-year bridge deal at $3.25 per (*was the lockout season)

Seguin signed for 6 years at $5.75 after 22, 67, 32*
Johansen 3@4 (JR, 21,12*, 63)
Nugent-Hopkins 7@6 (52, 24*, 56)
Landeskog 7@5.6 (52,17*,65)
Galchenyuk 2@2.8 (27*,31,46)
Yakupov 3@3.75 (31*,24,33)
Barkov 6@5.9 (24,36,59)
Drouin RFA (JR, 32,10,53)
Lindholm 2@2.7 (21,39,39)
Monahan 7@6.3 (34,62,63)
Bennett RFA (1,36,26)
Draisaitl RFA (9,51,77)
Reinhart (JR,42,47)

#51 Thorny

Thorny

    Supreme Mugwump

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,258 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Buffalo, some day

Posted 07 June 2017 - 11:10 PM

Samson would be better off signing next summer after his 60 point season
Samson comparables coming off their entry deals:
Huberdeau spent his post-draft year in JR, then put up 31*, 28, and 54 point seasons
He signed a two-year bridge deal at $3.25 per (*was the lockout season)
Seguin signed for 6 years at $5.75 after 22, 67, 32*
Johansen 3@4 (JR, 21,12*, 63)
Nugent-Hopkins 7@6 (52, 24*, 56)
Landeskog 7@5.6 (52,17*,65)
Galchenyuk 2@2.8 (27*,31,46)
Yakupov 3@3.75 (31*,24,33)
Barkov 6@5.9 (24,36,59)
Drouin RFA (JR, 32,10,53)
Lindholm 2@2.7 (21,39,39)
Monahan 7@6.3 (34,62,63)
Bennett RFA (1,36,26)
Draisaitl RFA (9,51,77)
Reinhart (JR,42,47)


Would it not make sense for Botterill to try and lock him up at a discounted rate then, this offseason, before a breakout? Or do players in his tier usually always go to RFA status first?

As opposed to a guy like Eichel, who'll almost certainly get extended this summer.

#52 dudacek

dudacek

    ...browsing the internet

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,026 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Listening to offers — eyes and ears

Posted 07 June 2017 - 11:28 PM

Looks to me like it's 2-3 years cheap, or 6-7 expensive.
And really, of the guys who signed long-term, which of them looked like a bargain?

We know Murray wanted to sign Sam to an extension this summer, but I don't know if that's normal.
Think most guys on his tier wait until they hit RFA, betting on a big third year.

Edited by dudacek, 07 June 2017 - 11:30 PM.


#53 pi2000

pi2000

    The Church of Mouls... er Matthews

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,633 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 June 2017 - 03:31 AM

Let's get wild - Reinhart & Ristolainen for Slavin & Aho.


I'll allow it. Aho is a stud.

#54 SabresFanInRochester

SabresFanInRochester

    Fourth Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 748 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 June 2017 - 08:56 AM

I'm really hoping that JB takes a good look (like through November) at what he really has currently & doesn't make any major moves (unless some no-brainer comes up & bites him in the bippy) prior to having a good handle on what these guys can do being led by someone that ISN'T a Goober.

With a real coach this current lineup SHOULD be good enough to make the playoffs. Get the full picture & figure out how to have them better than that in the near future.

Throwing away Reinhart for a 3/4 D would be poor asset management IMHO.

 

 

Neither Reinhart nor Kane should be traded unless a definitive top-50 NHL defenseman is part of the return. And this is not very likely, even with the expansion draft complicating things.

 

Just think about what we sacrificed for each of these guys:

 

1. Reinhart: the entire 2013-14 tank season.

2. Kane: essentially 4 1st round picks, a high 2nd round pick, and Bogosian's awful contract.

 

Both have their flaws, but they are still major talents who have proven that they can produce at the pro level. Moreover, they are both very young and still have plenty of room to grow, especially with better coaching.

 

I'm inclined to keep talent rather than get rid of it. Enough with the stupid trade proposals.

 

 

No one is judging anything. Merely pointing out that the moves made by the coach will be indicative of how Reinarts (or all players on the roster for that matter) will turn out. And yes, while it is true we don't have a clue as to the adjustments that may be made as injuries occur, the chemistry that may develop, the maturity of the youth that may be gained or the impact of rebounding veterans, one thing is a constant, coaching will be the pivotal factor in much of that, which, in turn, will equate to players stats.

 

 

I know what you are saying I am disagreeing. The lineup changes and the lines and that crap doesn't tell us much about a coach who will have limited knowledge of his players by that time (October). By January sure. Saying that start of the season, meaning first game lineup, will be a gauge of the new coach is IMPO not correct. Our coach at that stage might have had 2-3 preseason games with his full roster. All it will gauge is who the Gm and coach think is NHL ready and what the GM did to fix the team. The start of the season is not when you gauge the coach.


For example if on opening night he has Reinhart on Jack's wing I am not going to judge that the coach is right or wrong. Idk the new system, idk how players will work in it, idk if he will move lines often or not at all, idk if he wants the player to transition to another spot after learning the system. My point is I am not gauging the coach on anything for a bit. The first month of Bylsma I didn't think much of him but still had to give him a chance. Same goes for this. 

 

I think the coaching change will lead to a more dominant play out of Sam, and I am hoping the same for Girgensons. I think they have more talent than what we saw on the ice last year. I want to make sure we get to see them play with a new coach before we write them off. Might be hard to predict without knowing the coach, but I firmly believe we see a couple players improve due simply to a different system that better fits their strengths. 

 

Are there any players who you think will do better under the new coach?

 

Are there any players who you think will suffer under the new coach? 



#55 dudacek

dudacek

    ...browsing the internet

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,026 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Listening to offers — eyes and ears

Posted 08 June 2017 - 09:08 AM

Are there any players who you think will suffer under the new coach?

Girgensons, Bogosian, Reinhart, Gorges, Moulson, were the most miscast under Bylsma.

The ones most likely to suffer are the ones he leaned on hard.

ROR, Risto and to a lesser extent McCabe were overused. Most of us think less ice time will help their games, but it might not.

Larsson found a niche with Dan that may not be there with the new guy, so he would be one candidate for a faller.

And the other, surprisingly, is Eichel. Seemed to me he had most favoured child status and got away with a lot of ###### that others may not have and still kept going out there.Same with Kane.

But honestly, I think Kane is gone and Jack is too good to backslide.

Someone will though. It's inevitable.

Edited by dudacek, 08 June 2017 - 09:09 AM.


#56 Saratoga

Saratoga

    Third Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,059 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Adirondacks

Posted 08 June 2017 - 09:13 AM

In buffalo?

 

Eh a bit optimistic but not out of the question by any means.



#57 SabresFanInRochester

SabresFanInRochester

    Fourth Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 748 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 June 2017 - 09:15 AM

Girgensons, Bogosian, Reinhart, Gorges, Moulson, were the most miscast under Bylsma.

The ones most likely to suffer are the ones he leaned on hard.

ROR, Risto and to a lesser extent McCabe were overused. Most of us think less ice time will help their games, but it might not.

Larsson found a niche with Dan that may not be there with the new guy, so he would be one candidate for a faller.

And the other, surprisingly, is Eichel. Seemed to me he had most favoured child status and got away with a lot of ###### that others may not have and still kept going out there.Same with Kane.

But honestly, I think Kane is gone and Jack is too good to backslide.

Someone will though. It's inevitable.

 

I agree with you. The troubling thing is the players that you identified as being miscast, could make the difference in this being a playoff team. Shipping them off now would leave questions unanswered regarding 'what if.' With the addition of either Guhle or Antipin (potentially both) upgrading the defense; add improvement from either Bogo or Gorges and the team should be able to compete for a playoff spot. I think trading Kane or Reinhart, will upgrade the defense, but will it create a void in the top 6? I think this is a playoff team just based on the coaching change and the current roster (including Guhle or Antipin.)  



#58 Doohickie

Doohickie

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,712 posts
  • Location:Fort Worth, Texas

Posted 08 June 2017 - 10:21 AM

1. What do we know about JBot's "mold"? 

2. I don't see JBot making major changes for the sake of making changes.  If we trade Reindhart, it will be be to fill a hole (like D).  But I don't see him making changes right away to "shake things up."  The team just did that with a new GM & coach.  I think before doing any shakeup among the players it would be wise to see how they fit into the new coach's system.



#59 Eleven

Eleven

    Trump Supporter

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 28,754 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:La-la land. What an idiot he is.

Posted 08 June 2017 - 10:37 AM

We really need some action here in Buffalo.  Seems like half the board is trading the team's leading goal scorer for a draft pick; the other half is trading Reinhart for JVR's kid brother.



#60 North Buffalo

North Buffalo

    When hell freezes over, I’ll play hockey there too.

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,643 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Wherever Hockey is Being Played

Posted 08 June 2017 - 10:52 AM

We really need some action here in Buffalo.  Seems like half the board is trading the team's leading goal scorer for a draft pick; the other half is trading Reinhart for JVR's kid brother.


October cant come soon enough here...

#61 nfreeman

nfreeman

    All I want is everything you got.

  • SS Mod Team
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,034 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Brooklyn

Posted 08 June 2017 - 11:04 AM

Reinhart doesn't 'look' like the most dominant player out there, he isn't that big, not the best skater...but he does produce pretty well for a top 5 pick.  He has 40 goals in his first 2 years in the NHL.  That is very close to, or better production than these other recent top 5 forward picks in their first 2 years:

 

Evander Kane (33)

Nathan McKinnon (38)

Jonathan Drouin (29 total goals in 164 NHL games over 4 years..but he LOOKS good doing it)

Aleksander Barkov (24)

Alex Galchenyuk (42 in his first 3 seasons, one being a short season)

Ryan Nugent Hopkins (47 in his first 3 seasons, one being a short season)

Jonathan Huberdeau (only scored exactly 20 goals once in his career, averages about 15 per year)

 

Sure, there are also players who did better (McDavid, Seguin) and also some I wouldn't take at all (Yakupov), but Reinhart I think is doing what you would expect him to do, maybe even slightly better. His biggest problem might be he just doesn't look 'dominant' in the way he produces.

 

Good post.

 

 

I'm really hoping that JB takes a good look (like through November) at what he really has currently & doesn't make any major moves (unless some no-brainer comes up & bites him in the bippy) prior to having a good handle on what these guys can do being led by someone that ISN'T a Goober.

With a real coach this current lineup SHOULD be good enough to make the playoffs. Get the full picture & figure out how to have them better than that in the near future.

Throwing away Reinhart for a 3/4 D would be poor asset management IMHO.

 

Totally agree with the bolded, and I'll add that the same is true for trading Kane IMHO -- unless he's told them he's leaving in FA.

 

 

And that's the rub. Nobody really knows how the Vegas draft will shake out. But I'd not be at all surprised if an Anaheim-type team that's close now & stands to lose a much more valuable asset than a team further away (such as the Sabres - does anybody really care who they lose other than Ullmark, and even he won't be universally be bemoaned if he's gone) ends up making a side deal to give up prospects to Vegas to keep an unprotected player protected.

That's the way past expansion drafts worked. Even if the league had a mechanism in place to prevent those deals, they'd be VERY hard to enforce. "We didn't want Vatannen, he's old & injured. Prove we took x ONLY because we also swapped pick y for prospects A&B."

Many here are hoping for the easy snag of a top D. I'd like to see that too, but don't have terribly high hopes for it unless the Sabres pay close to normal rate because the Sabres aren't the only team bidding for that/ those assets. And the top price will be better than the 2nd best offer by definition. (Well, duh. Thanks for that nugget Sherlock. :lol:)

Is there any reason to believe another team that wants Brodin (just as an example) will make so low an offer that the Sabres can scoop him up for a song? The price will likely be lower than a normal year, but it's doubtful it will truly be a buyer's market. (Again, hoping the Sabres can get the cheap upgrade. Just not expecting it.)

 

This is what I expect too.  There aren't going to be a bunch of high-quality defensemen falling from the trees.  One or 2 may shake loose, but they will be few in number and expensive.

 

 

Neither Reinhart nor Kane should be traded unless a definitive top-50 NHL defenseman is part of the return. And this is not very likely, even with the expansion draft complicating things.

 

Just think about what we sacrificed for each of these guys:

 

1. Reinhart: the entire 2013-14 tank season.

2. Kane: essentially 4 1st round picks, a high 2nd round pick, and Bogosian's awful contract.

 

Both have their flaws, but they are still major talents who have proven that they can produce at the pro level. Moreover, they are both very young and still have plenty of room to grow, especially with better coaching.

 

I'm inclined to keep talent rather than get rid of it. Enough with the stupid trade proposals.

 

I don't agree with keeping someone because the price to acquire him was high, but I completely agree with the bolded.

 

 

Oh no, I agree the asking and purchase price will be high. To me reinhart is a huge ask if he's the one to go. But I think guys that were not even close to available may be for a high price.

 

This is also true -- one or 2 will probably become available.  I'll be interested to see whether JBott gets into the bidding. 

 

We know that Darcy would've looked up nervously from his coupon-clipping and quickly shaken his head no, while GMTM would've hastily spilled his pint while sorting through a pile of credit cards to find a couple that weren't maxed out.

 

I expect JBott will plot a middle course.

 

 

TLDR: Slavin transitions the puck the way the ideal modern defenseman does, and the point differential between the two isn't enough to elevate that above Slavin's skills for me, especially because he doesn't get PP time and outproduces Risto noticeably at even strength. 

And I funking love Risto - I think he's in a group of 4 elite defensemen in his age group (which I'll call under 24) - Slavin, Risto, Jones, and Ekblad. With guys like Werenski and Provorov soon to jump in.

 

 

Great stuff as always RF.

 

With Tocchet and Housely looking like strong contenders for the Sabres' job, I'm curious as to your views on Pittsburgh's and Nashville's D group in terms of possession, passing, system, etc.

 

 

Girgensons, Bogosian, Reinhart, Gorges, Moulson, were the most miscast under Bylsma.

The ones most likely to suffer are the ones he leaned on hard.

ROR, Risto and to a lesser extent McCabe were overused. Most of us think less ice time will help their games, but it might not.

Larsson found a niche with Dan that may not be there with the new guy, so he would be one candidate for a faller.

And the other, surprisingly, is Eichel. Seemed to me he had most favoured child status and got away with a lot of ###### that others may not have and still kept going out there.Same with Kane.

But honestly, I think Kane is gone and Jack is too good to backslide.

Someone will though. It's inevitable.

 

Do you think Kane took shortcuts on the ice?  I thought he played hard pretty consistently.



#62 Derrico

Derrico

    First Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,974 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Greater Toronto Area

Posted 08 June 2017 - 11:47 AM

 

This is also true -- one or 2 will probably become available.  I'll be interested to see whether JBott gets into the bidding. 

 

We know that Darcy would've looked up nervously from his coupon-clipping and quickly shaken his head no, while GMTM would've hastily spilled his pint while sorting through a pile of credit cards to find a couple that weren't maxed out.

 

I expect JBott will plot a middle course.

 

:w00t:

 

Very true.



#63 Sabre fan

Sabre fan

    Fourth Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 566 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Coboconk, Ontario

Posted 08 June 2017 - 11:56 AM

Sam's worth or value in any trade will be much higher then kane's so I can see Bott's at least exploring the trade option but the return would have to be so enticing that we cannot refuse. Teams with those nice defencemen we so long for cannot take on Kane's salary so Sam is a much nicer option. We do not even know Bott's "mold" so who knows? Maybe he will like and keep Sam and resign like we all hope. something tells me he will be resigned



#64 Thorny

Thorny

    Supreme Mugwump

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,258 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Buffalo, some day

Posted 08 June 2017 - 12:07 PM

We know that Darcy would've looked up nervously from his coupon-clipping and quickly shaken his head no, while GMTM would've hastily spilled his pint while sorting through a pile of credit cards to find a couple that weren't maxed out.
 
I expect JBott will plot a middle course.


Good stuff.

#65 dudacek

dudacek

    ...browsing the internet

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,026 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Listening to offers — eyes and ears

Posted 08 June 2017 - 12:22 PM

@Freeman

I agree Kane skates and battles very hard on the ice.
But we've seen him take ill-advised, selfish penalties, yap at the refs, and get distracted by battles with others on the ice.
And we've heard he maybe wasn't studying film and/or putting in extra practice time.

(And great stuff with the pint and the coupon clipping quote. It's why I love this place)

#66 TrueBlueGED

TrueBlueGED

    #fancystats

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 24,071 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 08 June 2017 - 01:13 PM

Girgensons, Bogosian, Reinhart, Gorges, Moulson, were the most miscast under Bylsma.

The ones most likely to suffer are the ones he leaned on hard.

ROR, Risto and to a lesser extent McCabe were overused. Most of us think less ice time will help their games, but it might not.

Larsson found a niche with Dan that may not be there with the new guy, so he would be one candidate for a faller.

And the other, surprisingly, is Eichel. Seemed to me he had most favoured child status and got away with a lot of ###### that others may not have and still kept going out there.Same with Kane.

But honestly, I think Kane is gone and Jack is too good to backslide.

Someone will though. It's inevitable.


Lehner. I think he's going to see a noticeable numbers dip if we play a more open game and expose him to a higher percentage of dangerous chances.

#67 dudacek

dudacek

    ...browsing the internet

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,026 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Listening to offers — eyes and ears

Posted 08 June 2017 - 01:40 PM

Lehner. I think he's going to see a noticeable numbers dip if we play a more open game and expose him to a higher percentage of dangerous chances.


Good call. And a good test for whether he is a legit number one worth making an investment in.
This is his last RFA contract, is it not? Tough decision there for Botterill. A show-me contract is hard to draft.
Maybe two years @ $3.5 with the intention of negotiating an extension next summer if he proves himself?

#68 GASabresFan

GASabresFan

    Fourth Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 874 posts

Posted 08 June 2017 - 02:11 PM

Lehner. I think he's going to see a noticeable numbers dip if we play a more open game and expose him to a higher percentage of dangerous chances.

The guy was under seige last year. With a better D group and better puck possession, he should actually face less scoring chances not more regardless of playing style.

As to this topic, Sam could be Crosby lite in the right enviroment. Crosby doesn't beat you with speed or size, but with skill and brains. Like Crosby, Sam's best skill is his brain. I'm sure Jbot understands this and isn't trading Sam now or in the near future.

Edited by GASabresFan, 08 June 2017 - 02:16 PM.


#69 Derrico

Derrico

    First Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,974 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Greater Toronto Area

Posted 08 June 2017 - 06:52 PM

The guy was under seige last year. With a better D group and better puck possession, he should actually face less scoring chances not more regardless of playing style.

As to this topic, Sam could be Crosby lite in the right enviroment. Crosby doesn't beat you with speed or size, but with skill and brains. Like Crosby, Sam's best skill is his brain. I'm sure Jbot understands this and isn't trading Sam now or in the near future.


I like Sam. I really do. But those guys aren't in the same universe. Sam is a nice player. Crosby is a superstar. Maybe Crosby is a dark Belgian stout and Sam is a Coors light.

#70 Randall Flagg

Randall Flagg

    All Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,630 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:WNY

Posted 12 June 2017 - 09:59 PM

 

 

With Tocchet and Housely looking like strong contenders for the Sabres' job, I'm curious as to your views on Pittsburgh's and Nashville's D group in terms of possession, passing, system, etc.

 

Pittsburgh: It's pretty amazing what they've been able to accomplish with the injuries they've had on the back end. It's been shown that they've decided to look for under-the-radar names that have the very specific offensive, first pass, and skating skill-sets, even if their deficiencies in other areas (looking at you, J. Schultz) are massive. They don't have to give up substantial assets when addressing the defense like this. I don't think any of us cared when Schultz, Ruhwedel, Daley, and Cole went to Pittsburgh, as if we had missed out on anything. I don't think those players would have enjoyed nearly the same amount of success here.

 

When your team is built to stretch the ice quickly and accurately by putting cheap fast wingers on the wings of two generational level centers, it doesn't matter if you allow 7 goals a couple times throughout the RS, because you can even win half of those (like when they beat Washington 8-7 recently). The guys they plug into the back end may be mediocre defensively, but when they recover pucks they are good at getting them to Phil on the wing or Sid/Geno down the middle, and at that point you're sitting pretty. And even the defensive mediocrity can be addressed with coaching1 As much as this quick-fix style is appealing, I'm skeptical that it would work nearly as well as us, and I don't think our two reliable pieces going forward (Risto, McCabe) compete with the established base of Letang-Dumoulin (who CAN play defense)-Maatta, even if Maatta sorta sucks. Not when the forward gap between the two teams is so big. 

 

 

1I don't consider myself very knowledgeable about advanced stats, but a lot of the newer stats we see get referenced take into account the quality of chances generated. The Sabres defense tried to funnel shots out to the point, sacrificing quality of shots allowed for quantity in the hopes that Lehner has an easier time. The defensive zone heat map shows a gorgeous blue streak in the slot area. Perhaps it was the Kings' dominance of this area, and ensuing success, that created the league's copycat reaction that gets talked about so much. People talk about Samson Reinhart's xGF and xGA and stuff like that because they show that not only do more shot plays happen when he's on the ice (and fewer shots against) but higher quality ones for all skaters involved (measured by several variables, notably distance from net and angle from the normal to the goal line). He's better than Eichel in this regard, i believe. Eichel is ridiculous in his point-generating abilities but a lot of it is through doing everything himself and not so much elevating other players he plays with. But anywho, it appears to be possible to take players who may suck defensively and teach them how to at least limit good chances against, and to put them into positions where they are using their best attributes as often as possible and leaning on Sid/Geno to keep the puck for a long time to limit the time spent having their weaknesses exploited. This is something I thought Bylsma failed miserably at, though as a team with different strengths and weaknesses I wasn't asking him to do exactly what Pittsburgh did. 

 

Nashville: Nashville appears to be a breeding ground for elite two-way defensemen. They've had all of the accomplishments this season WITHOUT two practically Norris-level guys they drafted and developed, Weber and Suter. One of whom left for absolutely nothing. They also grabbed a guy that looks to be one of the best under-24 defensemen in the world and traded him to address their weakness at center. And without those three guys they still have Subban(trade), Ekholm(draft), Ellis(draft), and Josi(draft). Each of these four players is a top 2 on just about every single team in the league. Irwin and Weber were perfectly fine as a third pair. The skating, passing, and offensive abilities of each of those top four players is obvious when watching. They are smooth, calm, and confident. The particular focus on shot quality defense almost helps a team like Nashville. Their forwards aren't going to be able to take advantage of the slot like elite ones can anyway, so when play gets funneled to the outside and into the hands of PK/Ellis for a bomb or Josi/Ekholm for some sick blue line dancing to find the perfect lane, well, that's just fine in Nashville's eyes.

 

Perhaps the growth in team reliance on advanced stats coupled with the increased accounting for shot/chance quality within the analytics community is also why Burns and Karlsson have seen deep runs for the first time in their careers very very recently. All of these guys have been criticized to some degree for their defensive zone play and have had it cited as a reason why they haven't experienced playoff success like a Keith or a Doughty. I don't think it's completely coincidental that the increase in importance of puck movement correlates with the fact that these criticized D-men are now going farther in the playoffs than the good ol' Canadian boys Doughty/Suter/Keith/Weber who play gritty defense and have thick, matted, manly chest hair.  

 

I don't think the Sabres are going to be in a position to build the way either team has, which is fine since there's no set equation to building a cup winner. I just want to climb out of bottom-3 territory when it comes to moving the puck from the back end, via both systemic and roster improvements, because I don't see its importance disappearing anytime soon. Our strength going forward is clearly at the center position, so I'd prefer that Botterill plus coach take that and use it to carve their own path towards a play style we won't know/think of until we see it produce the city's first ever professional sports championship. And then watch as the rest of the league tries to do what WE did. I think Eichel, Risto, ROR and Reinhart if he stays can be pieces for that. 

 

As far as Tocchet versus Housely goes, I don't really see the way that Nashville's D or Pitt's team plays as reasons for excitement in Buffalo because of the previous paragraph. That's why I haven't been as high on Housely and as low on Tocchet as everyone else. Housely didn't turn water into wine, he was one of several people involved in getting the most out of the defense corps of an organization that has been top of the line in terms of scouting and developing abilities in that particular area since George W. Bush's first term. Risto is not PK, McCabe is not Ellis, Guhle is promising in the transition department but is five years old, and there is a barren wasteland after that. It would take a decade to try to model Nashville. Tocchet won't have two generational centers, though he will have hopefully a superstar, a star, and a very good one on his 1-2-3 lines, respectively.

 

Both coaches are going to have to do something different because J-Bott will not be building the way that they're used to. They're going to have to do things they aren't familiar with. They're going to have to adapt. Lindy stayed 16 years because of Darcy's and the organization's loyalty, but also because he won playoff series in the trap years with teams built around his goaltender and then with a team of water bugs that took advantage of new rules better than any other. Adapting is key. The coach will have to employ a system that fits our team's strengths, and it will have to work because our players have shown that they notice when it doesn't. They'll buy in if it works. He has to be able to manage a room full of Lehners, Reinharts, and Eichels on top of it. He needs to do everything right that previous coaches have done wrong. I don't think I or anyone else has any idea if Tocchet or Housely can do any of this. Botterill is in the best position to know because he gets to hear their visions and philosophies, and has at the very least seen what it's like when an organization has done all of this successfully (Pitt the last two years) and has failed at it (Pitt before then). I'm buying into who he hires until they show me that they fail to do one or all of these things.



#71 nfreeman

nfreeman

    All I want is everything you got.

  • SS Mod Team
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,034 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Brooklyn

Posted 12 June 2017 - 10:16 PM

Great post Flagg.  Thanks.



#72 GASabresFan

GASabresFan

    Fourth Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 874 posts

Posted 12 June 2017 - 10:43 PM

I like Sam. I really do. But those guys aren't in the same universe. Sam is a nice player. Crosby is a superstar. Maybe Crosby is a dark Belgian stout and Sam is a Coors light.


I don't think Sam will put up 90 or 100 pts in a season, but if Jbot gets him the right coach who can teach him some of Crosby's positioning and decision making with the puck there is no reason Sam can't eventually be a 70 pt guy in this league.

#73 dudacek

dudacek

    ...browsing the internet

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,026 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Listening to offers — eyes and ears

Posted 12 June 2017 - 11:03 PM

Great post Randall.

Does anyone else get the feeling that Todd Reirden is the last man standing at the moment (after all the non-finalist interviews) and Tocchet or Housley will have to be better?

Edited by dudacek, 12 June 2017 - 11:04 PM.


#74 qwksndmonster

qwksndmonster

    Hot Daniel is Dead

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,892 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:The Sunken Place

Posted 12 June 2017 - 11:37 PM

Thanks for the long post Randyman. Awesome stuff.

#75 SabresFanInRochester

SabresFanInRochester

    Fourth Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 748 posts
  • Gender:Male

Posted 13 June 2017 - 08:54 AM

Pittsburgh: It's pretty amazing what they've been able to accomplish with the injuries they've had on the back end. It's been shown that they've decided to look for under-the-radar names that have the very specific offensive, first pass, and skating skill-sets, even if their deficiencies in other areas (looking at you, J. Schultz) are massive. They don't have to give up substantial assets when addressing the defense like this. I don't think any of us cared when Schultz, Ruhwedel, Daley, and Cole went to Pittsburgh, as if we had missed out on anything. I don't think those players would have enjoyed nearly the same amount of success here.

 

When your team is built to stretch the ice quickly and accurately by putting cheap fast wingers on the wings of two generational level centers, it doesn't matter if you allow 7 goals a couple times throughout the RS, because you can even win half of those (like when they beat Washington 8-7 recently). The guys they plug into the back end may be mediocre defensively, but when they recover pucks they are good at getting them to Phil on the wing or Sid/Geno down the middle, and at that point you're sitting pretty. And even the defensive mediocrity can be addressed with coaching1 As much as this quick-fix style is appealing, I'm skeptical that it would work nearly as well as us, and I don't think our two reliable pieces going forward (Risto, McCabe) compete with the established base of Letang-Dumoulin (who CAN play defense)-Maatta, even if Maatta sorta sucks. Not when the forward gap between the two teams is so big. 

 

 

1I don't consider myself very knowledgeable about advanced stats, but a lot of the newer stats we see get referenced take into account the quality of chances generated. The Sabres defense tried to funnel shots out to the point, sacrificing quality of shots allowed for quantity in the hopes that Lehner has an easier time. The defensive zone heat map shows a gorgeous blue streak in the slot area. Perhaps it was the Kings' dominance of this area, and ensuing success, that created the league's copycat reaction that gets talked about so much. People talk about Samson Reinhart's xGF and xGA and stuff like that because they show that not only do more shot plays happen when he's on the ice (and fewer shots against) but higher quality ones for all skaters involved (measured by several variables, notably distance from net and angle from the normal to the goal line). He's better than Eichel in this regard, i believe. Eichel is ridiculous in his point-generating abilities but a lot of it is through doing everything himself and not so much elevating other players he plays with. But anywho, it appears to be possible to take players who may suck defensively and teach them how to at least limit good chances against, and to put them into positions where they are using their best attributes as often as possible and leaning on Sid/Geno to keep the puck for a long time to limit the time spent having their weaknesses exploited. This is something I thought Bylsma failed miserably at, though as a team with different strengths and weaknesses I wasn't asking him to do exactly what Pittsburgh did. 

 

Nashville: Nashville appears to be a breeding ground for elite two-way defensemen. They've had all of the accomplishments this season WITHOUT two practically Norris-level guys they drafted and developed, Weber and Suter. One of whom left for absolutely nothing. They also grabbed a guy that looks to be one of the best under-24 defensemen in the world and traded him to address their weakness at center. And without those three guys they still have Subban(trade), Ekholm(draft), Ellis(draft), and Josi(draft). Each of these four players is a top 2 on just about every single team in the league. Irwin and Weber were perfectly fine as a third pair. The skating, passing, and offensive abilities of each of those top four players is obvious when watching. They are smooth, calm, and confident. The particular focus on shot quality defense almost helps a team like Nashville. Their forwards aren't going to be able to take advantage of the slot like elite ones can anyway, so when play gets funneled to the outside and into the hands of PK/Ellis for a bomb or Josi/Ekholm for some sick blue line dancing to find the perfect lane, well, that's just fine in Nashville's eyes.

 

Perhaps the growth in team reliance on advanced stats coupled with the increased accounting for shot/chance quality within the analytics community is also why Burns and Karlsson have seen deep runs for the first time in their careers very very recently. All of these guys have been criticized to some degree for their defensive zone play and have had it cited as a reason why they haven't experienced playoff success like a Keith or a Doughty. I don't think it's completely coincidental that the increase in importance of puck movement correlates with the fact that these criticized D-men are now going farther in the playoffs than the good ol' Canadian boys Doughty/Suter/Keith/Weber who play gritty defense and have thick, matted, manly chest hair.  

 

I don't think the Sabres are going to be in a position to build the way either team has, which is fine since there's no set equation to building a cup winner. I just want to climb out of bottom-3 territory when it comes to moving the puck from the back end, via both systemic and roster improvements, because I don't see its importance disappearing anytime soon. Our strength going forward is clearly at the center position, so I'd prefer that Botterill plus coach take that and use it to carve their own path towards a play style we won't know/think of until we see it produce the city's first ever professional sports championship. And then watch as the rest of the league tries to do what WE did. I think Eichel, Risto, ROR and Reinhart if he stays can be pieces for that. 

 

As far as Tocchet versus Housely goes, I don't really see the way that Nashville's D or Pitt's team plays as reasons for excitement in Buffalo because of the previous paragraph. That's why I haven't been as high on Housely and as low on Tocchet as everyone else. Housely didn't turn water into wine, he was one of several people involved in getting the most out of the defense corps of an organization that has been top of the line in terms of scouting and developing abilities in that particular area since George W. Bush's first term. Risto is not PK, McCabe is not Ellis, Guhle is promising in the transition department but is five years old, and there is a barren wasteland after that. It would take a decade to try to model Nashville. Tocchet won't have two generational centers, though he will have hopefully a superstar, a star, and a very good one on his 1-2-3 lines, respectively.

 

Both coaches are going to have to do something different because J-Bott will not be building the way that they're used to. They're going to have to do things they aren't familiar with. They're going to have to adapt. Lindy stayed 16 years because of Darcy's and the organization's loyalty, but also because he won playoff series in the trap years with teams built around his goaltender and then with a team of water bugs that took advantage of new rules better than any other. Adapting is key. The coach will have to employ a system that fits our team's strengths, and it will have to work because our players have shown that they notice when it doesn't. They'll buy in if it works. He has to be able to manage a room full of Lehners, Reinharts, and Eichels on top of it. He needs to do everything right that previous coaches have done wrong. I don't think I or anyone else has any idea if Tocchet or Housely can do any of this. Botterill is in the best position to know because he gets to hear their visions and philosophies, and has at the very least seen what it's like when an organization has done all of this successfully (Pitt the last two years) and has failed at it (Pitt before then). I'm buying into who he hires until they show me that they fail to do one or all of these things.

 

The bold-faced (above) was my biggest complaint about DB when he was hired. I thought he was too rigid and was going to make whatever roster he had fit into his system. Coupled with a lack of people skills and/or ability to discipline and earn respect from the team, it spelled disaster. I feel a lot better about this coaching hire as opposed to when DB was hired. 

 

Whereas you cannot predict how somehow will behave, you can look at past tendencies. When DB left Pittsburgh, no one cried. No one stood up for him, and the same thing happened in Buffalo a few months ago. 'I was shocked' was muttered by a couple players, and I am pretty sure that is due to both FGMTM and DB being released.

 

When I read about Housley, Tocchet, or Rierden, I hear nothing but their players paying major accolades to them. Although it is not directly tied to a system, I see this as a good sign. I hear the respective defensemen exclaiming that their coach is great and made them what they are. Perhaps PK was taking a shot at Montreal with his praise of Housley. Regardless, these are coaches that are going to help our defensemen. I am not going to discredit them because they had talented players to begin with -- they still brought marked improvement and development. (We certainly know a coach can screw up a player -- at least we have three candidates who seeing improvement.)

 

I have a lot of belief/hope that J-Bott's is looking for a coach who has a plan for the existing roster. I am giving J-Bott a ton of latitude that J-Bott understands the existing roster, and knows what they need for a system to get the most out of them. I then have to honor his decision to hire the right guy to put that system in place. If it is anyone of the aforementioned three, I am on board. If it is someone else, I can only hope it is because it was a better fit, but I honestly don't see that scenario.



#76 dejeanerret

dejeanerret

    Prospect

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 42 posts

Posted 13 June 2017 - 06:26 PM

I sense that Sam was frustrated by how he was being used by Bylsma. I don't think you bail on a top 2 pick without at least allowing your own coach to work with him and see if he fits his system.

If a year or two from now you see no progress then I would sense you'd see the Sabres try to move him.

But he did have success on a line with Eichel and that's rare for 20 year olds.

I believe the Sabres will see what they have this season before trying to trade him.

#77 ShadowLiger

ShadowLiger

    Third Liner

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,216 posts

Posted 13 June 2017 - 08:14 PM

42pts, 0.53ppg - 2016

47pts, 0.59ppg - 2017

 

That's about an 11% improvement in production. So let's assume a new coach and his 3rd year increases production by about 15% (slight increase compared to 1 to 2). So theoretically this season he should have 54 points (yes I predicted 60 so I will stick with that). I would argue that due to the coaching change and typically the junior year jump... going from .59 to .76ppg would represent a 23% jump in production roughly. This may be outside of Sam's ability. I think a 15% jump is probably within +/- 3% so 12-18% increase in production isn't crazy. 23% is unlikely. Time will tell.