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Lost Point Countdown: -15 Final: 78 (Mathmatically Eliminated)

playoffs?!!?

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#81 Woods-Racer

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Posted 15 March 2017 - 06:28 PM

Except a better draft pick and (most importantly) increasing the chances that DB gets fired. You can't possibly believe that if we lost our last 12 games it wouldn't increase the chances of Pegula giving Murray the green light to fire DB. I'd call that a tremendous gain for the team long term.

 

I understand not wanting the team to lose, but to say there's no upside to it is just wrong. Unless you prefer DB to remain coach and you really feel there's absolutely no difference long term between drafting 5th or 14th this June.

 

I don't disagree necessarily, but...

 

If we don't lose out, we won't lose out on a chance to a generational player. Picking 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 is meh, it's not a great draft and it's just splitting hairs. No way we go on a 10-2 run, so I see no chance in drafting 14th. I'm basically saying, unlike the past few years I will not be openly rooting for a loss, I will openly be rooting for a win. There is just so little to gain from a losing streak.

 

 

I hope 8-4 versus 4-8 is not the difference in Dan staying or going.

 

In GMTM I trust. The drums of this being his last season as the Sabres head coach appear to get louder across the interwebs daily.


Edited by Woods-Racer, 15 March 2017 - 06:29 PM.


#82 Huckleberry

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Posted 15 March 2017 - 09:42 PM

Besides if we go on a losing streak now, no one will see us coming when we go on 15 game winning streak to start next season.



#83 bunomatic

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 08:36 AM

I'm still rooting for the wins but there's not much of a chance that'll happen now. Roster is flawed. Coach is stuck in some kind of timewarp. It is what it is. Lets just let it all play out.



#84 pi2000

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 10:23 AM

This is actually a big game in the Carrion league.

 

https://www.talk.hockey/tank-tracker/

 

With a "win" BUF has a chance to tie for 3rd place in points.


Edited by pi2000, 16 March 2017 - 10:24 AM.


#85 GoPre

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Posted 16 March 2017 - 11:32 AM

This is actually a big game in the Carrion league.

 

https://www.talk.hockey/tank-tracker/

 

With a "win" BUF has a chance to tie for 3rd place in points.

 

For heck of it I ran a simulator 50 times.  Buffalo didn't land the 1st pick, but did grab the 2nd pick 5 times.  


Edited by GoPre, 16 March 2017 - 11:33 AM.


#86 Jsixspd

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 07:37 AM

Well, the count is now -3 pts.   90 is the best they could do if they ran the table and went 11 for 11 (a drug induced dream, frankly)    

If they lose 2 of their next 3 or 4 games in reg,  I'd say the team is playing to get a new coach, as much as playing for draft picks. 



#87 d4rksabre

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 09:16 AM

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#88 MattPie

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 10:26 AM

dp41.gif7.jpg


Edited by MattPie, 17 March 2017 - 10:31 AM.


#89 yse325

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 10:55 AM

Sabres are now in 24th place and sinking.  About to lock up another top 10 draft picks.  Way to go guys!



#90 Drunkard

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 11:42 AM

Sabres are now in 24th place and sinking.  About to lock up another top 10 draft picks.  Way to go guys!

 

Yep. We got leapfrogged by Carolina sometime in the past week and we got passed by Winnipeg last night. Dallas could pass us tonight if they can beat Calgary and we lose to Anaheim. It's possible for us to finish as low as 29th although not likely. We'd need another back to back against Jersey, plus Arizona would have to continue gaining ground on us.


Edited by Drunkard, 17 March 2017 - 11:43 AM.


#91 yse325

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 11:47 AM

Yep. We got leapfrogged by Carolina sometime in the past week and we got passed by Winnipeg last night. Dallas could pass us tonight if they can beat Calgary and we lose to Anaheim. It's possible for us to finish as low as 29th although not likely. We'd need another back to back against Jersey, plus Arizona would have to continue gaining ground on us.

Can't wait to see the forward he drafts with that top 5 pick.



#92 mustacheofgod

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 11:51 AM

I predict the Sabres finish 26th and don't place in the lottery.



#93 Drunkard

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 12:14 PM

Can't wait to see the forward he drafts with that top 5 pick.

 

I hope not, but I could definitely see it happening. I don't really have time to follow and analyze the draft but just googling NHL mock draft it seems like players are all over the place. Lilgegren is slated to go anywhere from 2nd to 24th and Valimaki is slated to go anywhere from 5th to 18th. Give me either of these guys (assuming we don't win the lottery) and I'll be happy.



#94 MattPie

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 12:18 PM

If I were more motivated, I'd make charts with the Carious (TM MattPie) teams and they ranges they could finish, but frankly I'm not going to waste any more time on this team until they start playing more interesting hockey.



#95 Jsixspd

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 03:25 PM

Yeah, if I were motivated, I'd look at the remaining schedule of 11 games and guesstimate which games are likely wins, which are likely losses, etc. 

 

Hard to even care with such a dysfunctional organization.  



#96 d4rksabre

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 04:11 PM

I think we're going 4-7



#97 Jsixspd

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 04:20 PM

I think we're going 4-7

Yeah, I can't believe they'd go 2-9.   Probably 4-7 or 5-6.  That would be a 76-78 pt season.   Hard to believe if that happens no one gets fired, 3 years into Murray's so-called 'rebuild' 



#98 MattPie

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Posted 17 March 2017 - 11:23 PM

Yeah, I can't believe they'd go 2-9.   Probably 4-7 or 5-6.  That would be a 76-78 pt season.   Hard to believe if that happens no one gets fired, 3 years into Murray's so-called 'rebuild' 

 

From this point, what do the Sabres need to go 6-10 for the last 16? That's a Buffalo record.



#99 MattPie

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Posted 21 March 2017 - 09:07 PM

After this collecting dust, it moves.



#100 Touched by Boyes

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 08:19 AM

After this collecting dust, it moves.

I thought you would kill off this thread once the countdown reached 0, but the negative countdown does add a sort of elegance to the futility.



#101 MattPie

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 08:58 AM

I thought you would kill off this thread once the countdown reached 0, but the negative countdown does add a sort of elegance to the futility.

 

I'm torn, perhaps I should have, but at this point I'm interested how far off they end up and how close 93 is to being "right".



#102 Drunkard

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 10:11 AM

I'm torn, perhaps I should have, but at this point I'm interested how far off they end up and how close 93 is to being "right".

 

I'm more curious to see whether we beat the 81 points we got last year. I think it'll be close.



#103 mustacheofgod

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 11:15 AM

I'm more curious to see whether we beat the 81 points we got last year. I think it'll be close.

 

Eh, I think the Sabres finish these last 8 games with a 3-5 record with a win against TOR, FLA and TBL.



#104 RonHextallsShoulderPads

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 11:35 AM

i predict, if Risto doesn't get suspended, 8-0. Miss the playoffs by 1 point. 



#105 pi2000

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 12:58 PM

What we've all been waiting for....

 

BUF is currently sitting 7th in points lost %.

 

NHL Lottery Odds for 7th place team....

 

1st pick: 6.50%

2nd pick: 6.87%

3rd pick: 7.23%

....

7th pick: 28.87%

8th pick: 39.94%

9th pick: 11.66%

10th pick: 0.74%

 

Chance to move up: 20.59%

Chance to move down: 70.41% 



#106 Jsixspd

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 03:25 PM

Hockey Reference now has seven teams with ZERO probability of making the playoffs.  Understandably,  Buffalo is among that worst 7 in the league with zero chance.  And yet this is the 2nd year of a high dollar, high profile coach and a supposed 'rebuild' team, and only March 22, and out of it. Again.  

  

http://www.hockey-re...layoff_prob.cgi


Edited by Jsixspd, 22 March 2017 - 03:25 PM.


#107 MattPie

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 09:30 AM

Hockey Reference now has seven teams with ZERO probability of making the playoffs.  Understandably,  Buffalo is among that worst 7 in the league with zero chance.  And yet this is the 2nd year of a high dollar, high profile coach and a supposed 'rebuild' team, and only March 22, and out of it. Again.  

  

http://www.hockey-re...layoff_prob.cgi

 

Zero seems unlikely, but < 0.05 % isn't. :) The Sabres have to be close to mathematical elimination by now though.



#108 (E5)

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 09:36 AM

What we've all been waiting for....

 

BUF is currently sitting 7th in points lost %.

 

NHL Lottery Odds for 7th place team....

 

1st pick: 6.50%

2nd pick: 6.87%

3rd pick: 7.23%

....

7th pick: 28.87%

8th pick: 39.94%

9th pick: 11.66%

10th pick: 0.74%

 

Chance to move up: 20.59%

Chance to move down: 70.41% 

 

 

Buffalo:

 

Chance to move up: 0%

Chance to move down: 90%

 

Edited for accuracy based off of Bettman's desires.



#109 yse325

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 05:02 PM

Buffalo:
 
Chance to move up: 0%
Chance to move down: 90%
 
Edited for accuracy based off of Bettman's desires.


No Bettman suspended Risto for 3 games to help the Sabres lose more games and therefore get a better draft slot.

#110 pi2000

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 12:33 AM

What we've all been waiting for....

BUF is currently sitting 7th in points lost %.

NHL Lottery Odds for 7th place team....

1st pick: 6.50%
2nd pick: 6.87%
3rd pick: 7.23%
....
7th pick: 28.87%
8th pick: 39.94%
9th pick: 11.66%
10th pick: 0.74%

Chance to move up: 20.59%
Chance to move down: 70.41%


btw i ###### this up... it's completely ###### wrong, forgot to factor in the Vegas team which gets the same odds as the 3rd place team..

#111 Randall Flagg

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Posted 28 March 2017 - 09:49 PM

Awh rats, officially eliminated from the playoffs tonight.



#112 MattPie

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Posted 28 March 2017 - 10:24 PM

Awh rats, officially eliminated from the playoffs tonight.

 

To be honest, they held out longer than I expected. All that's left is can Jack, and the Sabres, manage 1 Point per game.



#113 yse325

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Posted 28 March 2017 - 10:58 PM

To be honest, they held out longer than I expected. All that's left is can Jack, and the Sabres, manage 1 Point per game.


At this point what good does winning a couple of extra games? I hate to say this, but every point hurts our draft position and that's all that is really left of this season.

#114 MattPie

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Posted 28 March 2017 - 11:01 PM

At this point what good does winning a couple of extra games? I hate to say this, but every point hurts our draft position and that's all that is really left of this season.

 

Jack I'm rooting for 1 PPG. The team it's more amusement to see how low they'll go. I'd be fine with losing to slide down in the rankings.


keep-calm-and-carrion-379.png
IMG_20150326_214356.jpg

 



#115 Jsixspd

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 07:42 AM

The season was lost when they dropped below 93 points maximum.  Unfortunately they won a few games which really hurts the draft prospects.  :(  

Was anyone thinking they were still in it at 88 pts max?   LOL.    That would be 5 fewer points than any team has ever qualified for the playoffs with.  


Hockey Reference now has seven teams with ZERO probability of making the playoffs.  Understandably,  Buffalo is among that worst 7 in the league with zero chance.  And yet this is the 2nd year of a high dollar, high profile coach and a supposed 'rebuild' team, and only March 22, and out of it. Again.  

  

http://www.hockey-re...layoff_prob.cgi

It's up to TEN teams now that have zero % chance of the playoffs.  Sabres were lucky to get in on this EARLY, eh?   ;)



#116 MattPie

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 10:02 AM

The season was lost when they dropped below 93 points maximum.  Unfortunately they won a few games which really hurts the draft prospects.   :(  

Was anyone thinking they were still in it at 88 pts max?   LOL.    That would be 5 fewer points than any team has ever qualified for the playoffs with.  


It's up to TEN teams now that have zero % chance of the playoffs.  Sabres were lucky to get in on this EARLY, eh?   ;)

 

Philly *and* Mor-ray-all made it in with 88 in 2009, and there have been a handful of 91s and 92s in the last 12 years, but Dallas missed with 95 in 2011. 93 is an average that's a decent predictor but not set in stone. Boston is sitting in 8th right now with 86, and should end up right around 92-93 points if they keep the same pace. St Louis is at 88 with 7 games to play, so they'll likely be above 93.

 

BTW, we should all be rooting for Tampa, the Fishers, and (ick) Boston if we want Toronto eliminated. :)



#117 gramps

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 01:21 PM

Would love to see the last game of the year with TBL mean something for them - especially if Stamkos is back and TBL can keep pace with the Bruins. 



#118 Jsixspd

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 06:12 PM

Philly *and* Mor-ray-all made it in with 88 in 2009, and there have been a handful of 91s and 92s in the last 12 years, but Dallas missed with 95 in 2011. 93 is an average that's a decent predictor but not set in stone. Boston is sitting in 8th right now with 86, and should end up right around 92-93 points if they keep the same pace. St Louis is at 88 with 7 games to play, so they'll likely be above 93.

 

BTW, we should all be rooting for Tampa, the Fishers, and (ick) Boston if we want Toronto eliminated. :)

Thanks for the clarification - I didn't do enough research.  

I think I hate Boston more than the Leafs. 



#119 MattPie

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Posted 29 March 2017 - 08:20 PM

Thanks for the clarification - I didn't do enough research.  

I think I hate Boston more than the Leafs. 

 

No worries! I remember the 2009 playoff bubble race being wacky. Philly and NYR tied and it came down the last game of the season head-to-head, win and playoffs, lose and golf. The game went to OT and NYR sandbagged it figuring Lundqvist would win a shootout over whoever the Flyers had. Whoops. I remember it because it was a day game and I was in my yard digging up the garden listening to the game. Due to the tie breaker, Philly was #7; either out or the #7 seed can't happen too often either.



#120 Drunkard

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Posted 30 March 2017 - 09:03 AM

Thanks for the clarification - I didn't do enough research.  

I think I hate Boston more than the Leafs. 

 

Everyone should hate Boston more. Hell, I hate Boston more than ISIS. Sure they're religious zealots that kill innocent people and subscribe to a perverted version of their faith, but the other side is freaking Boston. Yuck.