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Sabres/NHL official protected lists...here they are


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#81 nucci

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 03:37 PM

Well, we do it's just that their a bit younger. I see Bailey as a 3rd line RW'er. Same with Fasching. Baptists on the other hand I see as a top 6 RW'er.

The only reason I didn't like losing Carrier was because he is a LH shot.

That's not a reason to keep a player



#82 nfreeman

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 03:59 PM

I am. Because I think he's going to be exposed as a fraud under Housley's system.

Fraud? So not even average starter? That'd be quite the swing. I think he'll be exposed...as average. And that's fine for something like a $4Mx4 contract.

 

I think it's about 40% likely that he turns out to be an average starter, about 30% likely that he's well above average, and about 15% each that he's either a washout or a star.

 

And for that, there is NFW I want to commit to $4MM x 4 years or even 3.

 

 

Just like Buffalo fans to overvalue players, Carrier is nothing more than a bottom tier player. He or Ennis could have been exposed and it would be 1 in the same, there is no shocker here, after the top 6 players, we don't have much imo.

 

Ennis has been a trash 5v5 player his entire career. Carrier was a part of the best 5v5 line we've had since probably the creation of those stats.

If we lose carrier because Ennis was protected, I'm not going to be pleased.

 

The team was historically bad when Ennis was coming into his own in the NHL.  He's missed the better part of 2 years with injuries but before that he had elite speed, good to very good hands and a nice edge. 

 

Carrier IMHO is a nice crash-bang forechecker who has a decent hockey IQ and zero hands.  I would much rather lose most of the Sabres' other unprotected guys, but at the same time if Carrier is taken and isn't easily replaced by Baptiste/Bailey/Fasching, then the Sabres whiffed on all 3 of those guys.

 

 

Some of my opinions...

Ennis has too much offensive potential, and would have been selected by Vegas. When he's healthy he can contribute offensively, when he's not, his salary doesn't count against the cap.

Carrier is a dime a dozen player, would be nice to keep but I wouldn't blink if we lost him in the draft.

Bogo has 0 value. He's overpaid and the dude isn't a good defenseman. A new coach isn't going to be able to change his attitude and work ethic. Pay Vegas a 2nd rounder and pray it's enough to get him off the team!!

Winnipeg protecting Myers is a no brainer, unquestionably 3rd best defenseman on the team. I strongly believe if enstrom didn't waive, they were trading a defenseman.

Ullmark may be selected, not because he's an amazing prospect, but because it's him or carrier(pray for bogo). Ullmark has yet to prove anything in the NHL

 

I agree with most of this, although I think you oversimplified about Ennis' significant cap hit not counting.  The Sabres can't just drop him on LTIR whenever they like.  It has to be for a significant, long-term injury.



#83 SabresBillsFan

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:18 PM

I live here in Las Vegas and my loyalties lie with the Buffalo Sabres but I'm gonna be a Golden Knights Fan.

 

Here is who I would take

 

Anaheim: Vatanen RD But I would tell them I want Manson and see if we get an extra pick for him

Arizona: Alexander Burmistrov F we will need some Russians to play with Vadim Shipachyov

Boston: Subban- G 

Buffalo: Carrier- F

Calgary: Alex Chiasson

Carolina:  Lee Stempniak  Not really a fan of any of their players- He's older than I would like but he can still score and we need some scorers

Chicago: Van Riemsdyk RD

Colorado: Grigorenko C

Columbus: William Karlsson  I believe it would be Jack Johnson or Anderson and that's why we will be getting a 1st rounder back

Dallas: Cody eakin C

Detroit: Petr Mrazek G

Edmonton: Desharnais C

Florida:  Jonathan Marchessault

Los Angeles:  Nick Shore F

Minnesota: Matt Dumba RD

Montreal: Nesterov LD

Nashville: Colton Sissons  F I believe it would be James Neal and that's why we will be getting a 1st rounder back

New Jersey: Stefan Noesen F  Don't really care about any of their players

New York islanders: Calvin De haan LD  I believe it would be Brock Nelson or Ryan Strome and that's why we will be getting a 1st rounder back

New York rangers:  Oscar Lindberg or Jesper Fast

Senator: Ryan as we need another player who can put the puck in the net but would ask about Methot and if they want to keep him

Philadelphia:  Jordan Weal is who I have been hearing

Pittsburgh: Rust F 

San Jose:Brenden Dillon D

St Louis: Dmitrij Jaskin or Ty Rattie

Tampa: Sustr  but I'm interested in possibly Jake Dotchin (Just don't know much about him)

Toronto: Kerby Rychel

Vancouver: Brendan Gaunce or Joseph Cramarossa but really don't care about what this team has to offer

Washignton: Nate Schmidt D

Winnipeg : Marko Dano or Toby Enstrom

 

I wouldn't take Fleury as everyone is thinking we are going to take him. I would take Mrazek as our #1 and possibly Lack as our #2. I know the goaltending will need some help but I want someone that is still young and Mrazek is 7 years younger.

 

I know McPhee wants to build up the pipeline and wants to get as many 1st or second rounders in this draft.


Edited by SabresBillsFan, 18 June 2017 - 04:27 PM.


#84 TrueBlueGED

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:19 PM

I think it's about 40% likely that he turns out to be an average starter, about 30% likely that he's well above average, and about 15% each that he's either a washout or a star.

And for that, there is NFW I want to commit to $4MM x 4 years or even 3.


Okay, so are you in favor of trading him? Because I'm not sure how you convince his agent he should sign for meaningfully less than Darling and Jones. I'm curious what your pitch would be.

#85 LikeEich

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:21 PM

I think it's about 40% likely that he turns out to be an average starter, about 30% likely that he's well above average, and about 15% each that he's either a washout or a star.

And for that, there is NFW I want to commit to $4MM x 4 years or even 3.




The team was historically bad when Ennis was coming into his own in the NHL. He's missed the better part of 2 years with injuries but before that he had elite speed, good to very good hands and a nice edge.



I agree with most of this, although I think you oversimplified about Ennis' significant cap hit not counting. The Sabres can't just drop him on LTIR whenever they like. It has to be for a significant, long-term injury.


Yeah you're right, it's not like whenever he's playing bad we can just throw him on LTIR. By the same token though,if he were to suffer a severe concussion it is the route we would take. Bottom line is our offense is too weak to let a player with Ennis ability go for nothing.

As for Lehner, I think it's a pretty safe bet he can provide NHL average #'s if his workload isn't too full. Potentially I see him as an above average starter.

4x4M could turn out to be a steal, or he might be a slightly overpaid backup. Personally is be willing to take the risk at 4×4M. I'd prefer a 3x3.5M ideally, doubt it'll happen. Most decent starters are in the 5+M range. If JBot thinks he's a starter I predict a 5×4.5M. If he thinks he's still unproven, 2x4M.

#86 nfreeman

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:29 PM

Okay, so are you in favor of trading him? Because I'm not sure how you convince his agent he should sign for meaningfully less than Darling and Jones. I'm curious what your pitch would be.

 

Well, I suppose the pitch would be "new GM, new coach, you'll get a good annual salary guaranteed for 2 years and if we like what we see during the 1st year, we'll give you a fat extension on July 1 before the 2nd season," or something like that,

 

...with of course the tactfully delivered but unmistakable underlying message including "you're an RFA, your only option is the KHL, so the only real option you have is to prove yourself to JBott and make him feel like he needs you there to backstop his young team on the rise."

 

 

Yeah you're right, it's not like whenever he's playing bad we can just throw him on LTIR. By the same token though,if he were to suffer a severe concussion it is the route we would take. Bottom line is our offense is too weak to let a player with Ennis ability go for nothing.

As for Lehner, I think it's a pretty safe bet he can provide NHL average #'s if his workload isn't too full. Potentially I see him as an above average starter.

4x4M could turn out to be a steal, or he might be a slightly overpaid backup. Personally is be willing to take the risk at 4×4M. I'd prefer a 3x3.5M ideally, doubt it'll happen. Most decent starters are in the 5+M range. If JBot thinks he's a starter I predict a 5×4.5M. If he thinks he's still unproven, 2x4M.

 

I too think he has it in him, but the "expose/dump Ennis" faction here isn't being unreasonable.  It's at least 50/50 that he doesn't get back to 45+ points.

 

I really think 4 years is too long.  I'd be very surprised if it ends up at 5.



#87 Randall Flagg

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:38 PM

I'm not confident in Ennis's ability to ever play substantially more than 50 games in an NHL season again. He's shot, and his contract is one of the ones we'd be extremely lucky to lose. We were already having the "Man, Ennis looks shot, I don't know if he can regain his form in this league again" discussion LAST summer, and this past season he played 51 games, (almost always with one of O'Reilly, Okposo, Eichel, or Reinhart - it's looking like there were only ~13 games he didn't play with those guys 100% of the time). He put up 13 points and ranged from "Meh, I don't hate him tonight" to "I can't believe they're letting that guy skate out there with NHLers, someone please stop them before he dies. It's over." His agility is gone. His hands are gone. His hockey sense was never really there. 

 

I'm not about to pump up Carrier as the next Gretzky, but he was getting 8 minutes per game most of the season despite improving the play of essentially every skater on this team outside of Nick Baptiste (who played like 20 minutes with him) and creating our single best possession line of any Sabres team since the playoff drought started. Well, he'd play on that line and their CF% would be 65%, and then half of his shifts would go to Moulson for some reason that very same game, and they'd get hemmed in and shelled. A team whose depth had them playing Nic Deslauriers and Derek Grant together a good portion of the season and is relying on at least one or two of four young Rochester wingers should not be leaving the clear best player of that group right now exposed while simultaneously protecting the corpse of Tyler Ennis.

 

The loss of Carrier in a vacuum does not mean much for this team, but using a protection slot on Tyler Ennis with his contract while leaving Carrier exposed is alarming to me. The only spot I can see it making sense is if we already have some sort of side deal set, so that they take someone like Bogosian, and we give Ennis the protection out of some form of vet-respect, or if Botterill is really high on Ullmark and needs to expose Carrier so that Vegas doesn't take Linus, and this has been established between them. 

 

Tyler scored a neat, fluky spinorama goal in NJ in February which was essentially our only offense. He would score two goals in the remaining 30 games, and six points in his last 26 games, including a stretch of 11 games without a point, while being an anchor everywhere else on the ice. He formed no chemistry, he played no defense, he was out of position often (especially with Jack - those two have run into each other more often the past two seasons than anyone else combined). The fact that he scored 20 goals on the teams that I don't even want to think about, much less describe, means nothing to me. 

A very small strike against Jason, and our pro scouting. An eyebrow raised. A hope that this is a blip and means nothing going forward.


 

 

 

I too think he has it in him, but the "expose/dump Ennis" faction here isn't being unreasonable.  It's at least 50/50 that he doesn't get back to 45+ points.

 

I really think 4 years is too long.  I'd be very surprised if it ends up at 5.

It's like 95/5 that he never sees 35 again, IMO.


Watch Vegas use our slot to sign Kulikov and make all of my hand-wringing look silly



#88 WildCard

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:40 PM

I'm very interested to see of Ennis can be revived under Housley kinda like Hagelin or Schultz were

#89 TrueBlueGED

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:42 PM

Well, I suppose the pitch would be "new GM, new coach, you'll get a good annual salary guaranteed for 2 years and if we like what we see during the 1st year, we'll give you a fat extension on July 1 before the 2nd season," or something like that,

...with of course the tactfully delivered but unmistakable underlying message including "you're an RFA, your only option is the KHL, so the only real option you have is to prove yourself to JBott and make him feel like he needs you there to backstop his young team on the rise."


Do you really think this works? Jones got $3Mx3 after a whopping 34 starts in which his numbers were worse than Lehner's. Darling just got $4.15x4 for numbers about the same as Lehner's, but with only half the starts and never a year above 35 starts. Talbot got $4.17x3 after 56 starts with Edmonton where he posted a pedestrian 917sv%. I understand being hesitant to commit 4 years to Lehner, but if you think you're getting him for something like $3.5Mx2, I think you're in fantasy land, RFA or not. And I'm pretty sure he's arbitration eligible, where he'd assuredly get a higher cap hit than you want, albeit for less term.

#90 Randall Flagg

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:45 PM

I did read something somewhere that mentioned GMTM exposing Carrier with the understanding that he wasn't being taken, but I can't find it now. That would make sense too. 

God I want to lose a bad contract.



#91 TrueBlueGED

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:48 PM

I'm very interested to see of Ennis can be revived under Housley kinda like Hagelin or Schultz were

You're signing up for expensive disappointment.

Edit: Hagelin was shooting under 5% with the Ducks in half the season. That jumped to over 10% with the Pens, before dipping back under 5% this season. Don't really think there's death or revival there, just some seemingly random variation.

I did read something somewhere that mentioned GMTM exposing Carrier with the understanding that he wasn't being taken, but I can't find it now. That would make sense too.

God I want to lose a bad contract.

Kevin Sylvester tweeted that out. Not sure if that's better or worse than not remembering where you saw it :lol:

Edited by TrueBlueGED, 18 June 2017 - 04:50 PM.


#92 Randall Flagg

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 04:48 PM

You're signing up for expensive disappointment.

Kevin Sylvester tweeted that out. Not sure if that's better or worse than not remembering where you saw it :lol:

That explains why I can't find it...I certainly wasn't sprinting to WGR's golf show host :P



#93 Lanny

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 05:07 PM

Yeah, it was K Sylvester:

I was told Murray had made a deal to not take Carrier, but that may have changed with GM Botterill

#94 PromoTheRobot

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 05:10 PM

Just like Buffalo fans to overvalue players, Carrier is nothing more than a bottom tier player. He or Ennis could have been exposed and it would be 1 in the same, there is no shocker here, after the top 6 players, we don't have much imo.


Except one still has most his career ahead of him, and one doesn't.

#95 WildCard

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 05:25 PM

You're signing up for expensive disappointment.

Edit: Hagelin was shooting under 5% with the Ducks in half the season. That jumped to over 10% with the Pens, before dipping back under 5% this season. Don't really think there's death or revival there, just some seemingly random variation.

In a similar sense then Ennis' career s% is 10.1%, and his last two seasons have been slightly above 5% each



#96 nfreeman

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 05:36 PM

Do you really think this works? Jones got $3Mx3 after a whopping 34 starts in which his numbers were worse than Lehner's. Darling just got $4.15x4 for numbers about the same as Lehner's, but with only half the starts and never a year above 35 starts. Talbot got $4.17x3 after 56 starts with Edmonton where he posted a pedestrian 917sv%. I understand being hesitant to commit 4 years to Lehner, but if you think you're getting him for something like $3.5Mx2, I think you're in fantasy land, RFA or not. And I'm pretty sure he's arbitration eligible, where he'd assuredly get a higher cap hit than you want, albeit for less term.


I agree that $3.5MM per year is not reasonable. I was thinking $4MM to $4.5MM per year x 2 years. I can see it being pushed to 3 years. I think longer than that would be a real mistake (and I will note that 2 of the 3 contracts you mentioned were 3-year deals).

#97 ShadowLiger

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 05:38 PM

Is it bad that I just don't care? I mean we are losing one player anyway but any GM worth his salt should be able to find a replacement for literally anyone we left unprotected. 



#98 WildCard

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 05:39 PM

Is it bad that I just don't care? I mean we are losing one player anyway but any GM worth his salt should be able to find a replacement for literally anyone we left unprotected. 

Our list does look like Regier's wet dream 



#99 ShadowLiger

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 05:43 PM

Our list does look like Regier's wet dream 

Basically. Grinders who can skate.  If we can't replace Carrier or Ullmark for that matter we have bigger problems. 



#100 iTInSn

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 06:14 PM

I'm sorry if someone already covered this. Is there an assumption that LV is going to take someone from our pool that will be an immediate NHL talent? They get to dress 20 guys. How many picks are going straight to the farm? I see a lot of juicy AHL talent on everyone's list. Ullmark's new deal makes him less juicy IMO. Why wouldn't LV take a really good AHL on a good deal? A guy with winning experience like Schneider?

#101 matter2003

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 06:26 PM

Some surprises here for sure...

 

http://www.sportsnet...xpansion-draft/


So after signing Ullmark we did not protect him. I would think Carrier is bye-bye and that's too bad I liked him

 

It's impossible to say without knowing what side deals were made with Vegas



#102 pi2000

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 07:41 PM

Lots of Ennis hate on here. When healthy he's a dynamic goal scorer, slick puck handler, great is small areas. Even when he's not scoring he makes it difficult on opposing defensemen.

If I'm Vegas I try to sign Kulikov during the exclusive window. He would become their pick from BUF. But then also try to trade them Moulson which they could use his veteran leadership and power play expertise. Could happen.

#103 Randall Flagg

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 07:42 PM

Lots of Ennis hate on here. When healthy he's a dynamic goal scorer, slick puck handler, great is small areas. Even when he's not scoring he makes it difficult on opposing defensemen.

 

I assure you, the past 2 seasons opposing defensemen breathe sighs of relief when Ennis hits the ice.



#104 LikeEich

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 07:51 PM

I assure you, the past 2 seasons opposing defensemen breathe sighs of relief when Ennis hits the ice.


2015/16 23 games 11 points. Basically sums up the season.

16/17 51 games 13 points. So clearly a bad season, wasn't in game shape for much of it.

Injuries are one thing, but going around saying he can't skate anymore is another(not implying you're saying that). Give the guy a chance to really get healthy and in shape. 35+ points isn't a stretch by any means and I fully expect him to achieve that this season.

#105 pi2000

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 07:55 PM

I assure you, the past 2 seasons opposing defensemen breathe sighs of relief when Ennis hits the ice.


He hasn't been healthy, but he looked more like his old self down the stretch. He could be Dr. Phil's Arvidsson.

#106 qwksndmonster

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:03 PM

I feel like I'm going a little crazy reading all these positive takes on Ennis.

I love the guy. He should retire.

#107 Huckleberry

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:07 PM

I'm sorry if someone already covered this. Is there an assumption that LV is going to take someone from our pool that will be an immediate NHL talent? They get to dress 20 guys. How many picks are going straight to the farm? I see a lot of juicy AHL talent on everyone's list. Ullmark's new deal makes him less juicy IMO. Why wouldn't LV take a really good AHL on a good deal? A guy with winning experience like Schneider?

 

That is why I picked Schneider :P



#108 pi2000

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:14 PM

I feel like I'm going a little crazy reading all these positive takes on Ennis.

I love the guy. He should retire.


Why? he's 27 entering his prime. He showed flashes of his old self the last couple weeks of the season. Buy low, sell high, I'm buying.

#109 LikeEich

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:19 PM

I feel like I'm going a little crazy reading all these positive takes on Ennis.

I love the guy. He should retire.

I think alot of the mentality has to do with him being the longest tenured sabre. All the built up resentment from the last several years you know what I mean?

Imagine we just picked him up in a trade for a 7th, go back look at highlights and his stats. He can help the offense, and yah his cap sucks but were up for a restructure in 2 years anyway.

Edited by LikeEich, 18 June 2017 - 08:19 PM.


#110 WildCard

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:21 PM

Why? he's 27 entering his prime. He showed flashes of his old self the last couple weeks of the season. Buy low, sell high, I'm buying.

I don't think he should retire but he's definitely not entering his prime. He's going to be 28 and I think he can put up 5 or so more 20 goal seasons though

#111 qwksndmonster

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:25 PM

Why? he's 27 entering his prime. He showed flashes of his old self the last couple weeks of the season. Buy low, sell high, I'm buying.

I haven't seen him play like the Ennis of old in a long long time. He's got the fear in him, and rightly so. Another concussion could be devastating to his personal health.

#112 Randall Flagg

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:26 PM

I don't think he should retire but he's definitely not entering his prime. He's going to be 28 and I think he can put up 5 or so more 20 goal seasons though

Why on earth do you think he can do that?

#113 WildCard

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:31 PM

Why on earth do you think he can do that?

His s% for the last two seasons is 1/2 of what his career average is, and that's including those crappy seasons. He's had some bad concussion luck, terrible coaching, and nowhere really to play for those last two seasons. He'll be fully healthy on a team that values speed and be put into a much better position to succeed. 



#114 Neo

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:34 PM

No hate for Ennis, here, but instead a cold look at the facts.

What's the over/under on how many more NHL goals he scores in his career? I'll say 49.

Over or under?

Edited by Neo, 18 June 2017 - 08:34 PM.


#115 Randall Flagg

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:37 PM

No hate for Ennis, here, but instead a cold look at the facts.

What's the over/under on how many more NHL goals he scores in his career? I'll say 49.

Over or under?

Under, I'd set mine at 25.

#116 ubkev

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 08:54 PM

No hate for Ennis, here, but instead a cold look at the facts.

What's the over/under on how many more NHL goals he scores in his career? I'll say 49.

Over or under?


Way the ###### under.

#117 Sabres79

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 09:03 PM

No hate for Ennis, here, but instead a cold look at the facts.
What's the over/under on how many more NHL goals he scores in his career? I'll say 49.
Over or under?


If actually betting the odds would be so slanted towards the under that I'd have to toss a few bucks on the over just in case. Which is what they want me to do, but I digress.

Under.

#118 Neo

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 09:04 PM

I seem to be a terrible book maker!

#119 Randall Flagg

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 09:08 PM

I seem to be a terrible book maker!

Maybe not - I'd bet the only people to respond so far think the next person to breathe on Ennis will end his career, and WC is predicting at least 100 more goals just a few posts north!



#120 inkman

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Posted 18 June 2017 - 09:23 PM

Is it bad that I just don't care? I mean we are losing one player anyway but any GM worth his salt should be able to find a replacement for literally anyone we left unprotected.


Troof

I seem to be a terrible book maker!


Can I bet you on that?