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2017-18 lineup prediction


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#481 Randall Flagg

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 06:33 PM

Ryan O'Reilly and Kane played 228 minutes together at ES, roughly 25% of the time for both of them. 

 

From puckalytics

 

ROR_KANE.jpg

So pairing the two creates a very nice corsi percentage. The GF% is shockingly bad, but the shooting percentage dip and the size of the sample might be able to explain that away. When together they essentially get used the way Kane does, ie ROR's offensive zone start percent spikes up to Kane's normal one by about 10%.

 

JACK_KANE.jpg

 

Here's Jack and Evander. I almost don't want to comment on their GF% together because the sample size is getting uncomfortable (only 15 goals scored by either team while they play at ES together) but it's much higher than it is for either guy by themselves, and the CF% dips less than 2% even though their usage shifts more than 10% towards the D-zone. Either way, it's not as bad for either of these guys statistically as I thought it was. Expanding with the eye test, I definitely think Jack & Evander figured each other out more this year than they did in the first year when Kane was flubbing Jack's passes, Jack was even worse defensively than he is now, and the two couldn't stop running into each other. I don't remember enough of ROR and Kane to comment, evidenced by the horrible prediction I made the post before this. 

I'm wondering if that train of thought comes from the 15-16 season. 

A side note, I think the GF/60 is bound to go up across the board for this team, but Kane and Eichel have ridiculously bad goals-against numbers at even strength, and we need them and the coaches to put in the work to lower them.



#482 Tondas

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 06:38 PM

FWIW, here are all of Kane's goals from last year

 

 

It's a damning argument against me honestly, because those are all pretty goals. Who knows, maybe this will be the most crow I eat since Drouin / RoR

 

 

No doubt Kane is a natural goal scorer that the team desperately needs.  I think the Sabres can offer everything Kane wants:

 

Term

Dollars

Team on the rise

 

I just hope he wants to spend his youth in Buffalo.  I don't know him but everything I read says warm weather, cosmopolitan city, which he will have his choice.


Edited by Tondas, 12 July 2017 - 06:38 PM.


#483 GASabresFan

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 06:40 PM

One solution would be to pair either KO with them or even Pommers to add a more defensively aware forward to the line. Both pass the puck well as well. I can see KO putting up 40+ assists feeding Kane and Jack.

Edit: I watched the Kane goals video and it was illuminating. Jack can really pass. Here is the breakdown of the plays.
1) Jack feathered 6 perfect passes
2) Kane created 5 goals with physical, hustle or speed plays.
3) Gionta made 5 nice passes
4) Kane scored 5 times on passes, tips or rebounds from D
5) Sam helped on 4 goals, 3 passes and 1 rebound
6) ROR helped on 2, 1 pass, 1 rebound
7) CJ Smith earned a helper on a nifty 2 on 1.

It seems pretty obvious that to maximize Kane, he needs to be paired with Jack.

Edited by GASabresFan, 12 July 2017 - 07:00 PM.


#484 Randall Flagg

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 06:50 PM

These numbers also show that Kane and Sam were a terrible combination for us. Again, I don't buy that entirely because the sample size is quite small. For example, these two have played about 120 minutes together this past season, and just off the top of my head I remember 60 of them being minutes where we had a 2+ goal lead (in NY in January and later against Philly) and let ourselves get absolutely shelled for 2 periods holding the leads. Here's the corsi flow chart of that NYR game, note that as soon as we score the third goal (the third orange dot) we just stop caring:

 

Buf_NYR.jpg

 

So the lesson is kids, don't just read stats off and think you don't have to watch any hockey!


The Kane can't score with Jack meme does have legitimate beginnings - when on the ice together in 15-16, their GF% dropped from 42.9% (Kane) and 50.7% (Jack) to TWELVE POINT FIVE PERCENT, in over 250 minutes. That's horrendous, and that has to be where that thing comes from, even if it's largely been fixed. 


I'm not going to complain much anymore when I see Kane with either guy, but I think my preference toward rolling 3 equal scoring lines would have me keeping Kane separate from those two whether Sam centers his line or is on Jack's wing. 


Edited by Randall Flagg, 12 July 2017 - 06:45 PM.


#485 pi2000

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 07:01 PM

Am I the only one that like Rodrigues more than Baptiste / Bailey?

 

No, but I like Baptiste and Bailey better.    Both bigger stronger, can protect the puck better and create more plays with their feet.    

 

 

Anything to get Reinhart as 3rd center and "skate 3 lines" like in the Drury-Briere-Roy days

 

Pouliot - Eichel - Okposo

Girgs - ROR - Pominville

Kane - Reinhart - Bailey

Moulson - Larsson - Fasching

 

Heard Bailey as right shot can play left wing, could sub him instead of Girgs and get:

 

Pouliot - Eichel - Okposo

Bailey - ROR - Pominville

Kane - Reinhart - Baptiste

Girgs - Larsson - Fasching

 

I would swap Pouliot with Kane.    And Baptise with Facshing.     And then Bailey with Pominville, and then Pominville with Pouliot.


Is anyone else a little concerned about Nylander? I expected a bit more from him last year for his first year in the AHL. I heard he's put on more size though.

 

Yes, his compete level sucks.



#486 Randall Flagg

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 07:06 PM

I've never been a huge Nylander fan. 

 

I don't hold too much of his poor AHL season against him. He kept his head in the right place, didn't pout or blame people. Was the youngest, and probably thinnest, guy in the league. 

 

Leafs fans absolutely rave about the summer training program William went through last year. The guy is chiseled and a complete beast now, and had a wonderful NHL season after being far too small for the league starting out. This was Alex's first summer in that very same program (it has something to do with their father). We'll see what the results are.



#487 GASabresFan

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 07:21 PM

I've never been a huge Nylander fan.

I don't hold too much of his poor AHL season against him. He kept his head in the right place, didn't pout or blame people. Was the youngest, and probably thinnest, guy in the league.

Leafs fans absolutely rave about the summer training program William went through last year. The guy is chiseled and a complete beast now, and had a wonderful NHL season after being far too small for the league starting out. This was Alex's first summer in that very same program (it has something to do with their father). We'll see what the results are.

I just watched Jbot's interview after D Camp day 4 and one of the journalists said that Nylander was noticably bigger and stronger. Hope that he has a better AHL year 2.

Edited by GASabresFan, 12 July 2017 - 07:21 PM.


#488 ShadowLiger

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 07:48 PM

Is anyone else a little concerned about Nylander? I expected a bit more from him last year for his first year in the AHL. I heard he's put on more size though.

No he's 19 and staying in the AHL another year will be good for him.

I've never been a huge Nylander fan.

I don't hold too much of his poor AHL season against him. He kept his head in the right place, didn't pout or blame people. Was the youngest, and probably thinnest, guy in the league.

Leafs fans absolutely rave about the summer training program William went through last year. The guy is chiseled and a complete beast now, and had a wonderful NHL season after being far too small for the league starting out. This was Alex's first summer in that very same program (it has something to do with their father). We'll see what the results are.

Oh God, I'm having Gary Roberts, Cy Hgsn flashbacks...

#489 dudacek

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 09:27 PM

Am I the only one that like Rodrigues more than Baptiste / Bailey?


Yes. (You must have hacked Saratoga's account)

Seriously, I love him as a versatile 13th forward, but I can't picture him ever being top nine.
Hope I'm wrong. Love his hustle.

  

Ryan O'Reilly and Kane played 228 minutes together at ES, roughly 25% of the time for both of them. 
 
From puckalytics
 
ROR_KANE.jpg
I definitely think Jack & Evander figured each other out more this year than they did in the first year when Kane was flubbing Jack's passes, Jack was even worse defensively than he is now, and the two couldn't stop running into each other. I don't remember enough of ROR and Kane to comment, evidenced by the horrible prediction I made the post before this. 
I'm wondering if that train of thought comes from the 15-16 season. 

 

I agree with your latter point. I don't think Evander ever got enough credit for the way he changed his game in his second season here.
I think he recognized he could benefit from better shot selection and more emphasis on getting open.
I suspect the main reason for his shooting percentage jump was a much higher percentage of his shots were coming from a high percentage scoring area.

 

I've never been a huge Nylander fan. 
 
I don't hold too much of his poor AHL season against him. He kept his head in the right place, didn't pout or blame people. Was the youngest, and probably thinnest, guy in the league. 
 
Leafs fans absolutely rave about the summer training program William went through last year. The guy is chiseled and a complete beast now, and had a wonderful NHL season after being far too small for the league starting out. This was Alex's first summer in that very same program (it has something to do with their father). We'll see what the results are.


I thought Alex looked noticeably bigger - more college student, less Grade 11 student.
He plays the kind of game I've never been a fan of, but I can't deny his skill is off the charts and he thinks the game well.
Still think he could score a ton on Jack's wing. We may see that combination some time later this year.

#490 ericcomposer72

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 02:43 PM

Another thing to consider about a possible contract, since everybody loves speculating on Kane's mentality-

 

He may just want to win, and be in a place that loves hockey. He's not going to get to play with Jack Eichel if he goes to another team. If things play out the way we all hope they do, he may, himself, imagine being part of a team that could win it all in a few years.