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Lost Point Countdown: -5 Max: 88

playoffs?!!?

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#1 MattPie

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 06:26 PM

It's the bye week. The Sabres have played 60 games and have 62 points. Using the 93 point mark as a reference for the playoffs, the Sabres need 31 points in 22 games, or put another way, they can only miss out on 13 before the playoffs become incredibly unlikely.

I'll bump and update as the games go on.


566603182_o.jpg


Edited by MattPie, 21 March 2017 - 09:07 PM.


#2 Sabres Fan In NS

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 07:21 PM

The Sabres 2016/17 version of the dooms day clock?

 

:nana:



#3 pi2000

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 07:39 PM

9-0-13 gets us in! wooo!



#4 Huckleberry

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 07:45 PM

9-0-13 gets us in! wooo!

 

We got them right where we want them :D



#5 Wyldnwoody44

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 09:22 PM

How many of those 9 are shootout wins......

#6 MattPie

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 12:28 AM

The Sabres 2016/17 version of the dooms day clock?

 

:nana:

 

Pretty much. I take no joy in doing this.



#7 RonHextallsShoulderPads

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 08:51 AM

To understand our chances, I need  this in Bills Wild Card Race terms. are we 5-7 and need to win out and a bunch of people to lose OR are we 7-5 and control our own destiny?



#8 Wyldnwoody44

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 09:49 AM

To understand our chances, I need this in Bills Wild Card Race terms. are we 5-7 and need to win out and a bunch of people to lose OR are we 7-5 and control our own destiny?

My assumption, is that if we hit 93-94 points, and beat the leaves both times then we should make the playoffs. However there is far. Too much hockey to be played to compare it to the NFL wild card race.... So in summation..... We control our own destiny. But we need To sustain at a pace that is simply unsustainable for us

#9 MattPie

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 10:27 AM

To understand our chances, I need  this in Bills Wild Card Race terms. are we 5-7 and need to win out and a bunch of people to lose OR are we 7-5 and control our own destiny?

 

Probably 6-5, but in a division with the 10-1 Patriots and a couple 8-3 teams currently in the wildcard spots but games against those teams. If the Sabres somehow win out, they'd be at 106 points and in. If they take 3 of 4 points for the rest of the season, they'd have 95 and on the bubble. Anything less than that and nigh well impossible. Presidents Trophy pace for a month and a half.

 

My assumption, is that if we hit 93-94 points, and beat the leaves both times then we should make the playoffs. However there is far. Too much hockey to be played to compare it to the NFL wild card race.... So in summation..... We control our own destiny. But we need To sustain at a pace that is simply unsustainable for us

 

I agree, it's not often 6-5 teams win 3 of 4. If they did, they wouldn't be 6-5.


Edited by MattPie, 23 February 2017 - 12:14 PM.


#10 Touched by Boyes

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 11:15 AM

I have resigned myself to the Sabres not making the playoffs. It is just to big of a hill to climb with too many teams in the race for us to leapfrog them all and go on the type of run it will take to make it.

 

It's certainly been a more enjoyable season than the 50 point years, but as all Buffalo sports seasons go... "There's always next year" :death:



#11 Randall Flagg

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 11:49 AM

To understand our chances, I need  this in Bills Wild Card Race terms. are we 5-7 and need to win out and a bunch of people to lose OR are we 7-5 and control our own destiny?

More the first. 

If the Rangers beat the Leafs tonight, we need to beat the Leafs twice and then out-gain them by 2 points in the rest of the teams' 20 games remaining to pass them. If the Leafs win, we need to beat them twice and out-gain them by 4 points. We need to out-gain the Bruins by 5 points (we're 4 behind them) with no remaining games against them, each having 22 games left. We need to leap frog a bunch of teams in the process, but if the Leafs and Bruins continue at their respective paces, that leap frogging should happen pretty naturally if we do manage to pass the Leafs and Bruins.



#12 Thorny

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 03:11 PM

We had a pretty huge comeback in the 2010-11 season, so we know it can be done. Does anyone know where we were in 2011 at about this same point?

#13 Randall Flagg

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 03:34 PM

We had a pretty huge comeback in the 2010-11 season, so we know it can be done. Does anyone know where we were in 2011 at about this same point?

29-25-6, 2 games below .500, 64 points.

This year: 26-24-10, 8 games below .500, 62 points.

That team went 13-3-4 to finish the year.



#14 sabills

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 03:35 PM

We had a pretty huge comeback in the 2010-11 season, so we know it can be done. Does anyone know where we were in 2011 at about this same point?

 

Brute forced it while only half paying attention, but I got 28-25-6 (62 pts) vs 26-24-10 (62 pts). Thats as of the 23rd of February. Weird.



#15 Thorny

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 03:48 PM

29-25-6, 2 games below .500, 64 points.
This year: 26-24-10, 8 games below .500, 62 points.
That team went 13-3-4 to finish the year.

  

Brute forced it while only half paying attention, but I got 28-25-6 (62 pts) vs 26-24-10 (62 pts). Thats as of the 23rd of February. Weird.


Good stuff guys thanks :beer:

So we basically have to play like we did to end that season. Possible? That team got 32 points over the final 22 games, then. Some gotta go 14-4-4 to match that and get to 94 points which probably gets in.

It's actually pretty crazy that team finished that way. Seems daunting, for this year, looking at the raw numbers. Looks a little more attainable if you view it as 14-8.

Of course, that team in 2011 proceeded to get Leino'd, in more ways than one.

#16 Randall Flagg

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Posted 23 February 2017 - 03:57 PM

That team was also a slightly positive possession team, and finished in the standings in the exact same spot they were ranked by CF%, which is fifteenth haha

We're 27th in the metric this time around...

(I'm not actually using CF% as a predictor I just don't think we play sustainable hockey)



#17 yse325

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 12:36 PM

The bye week has come to an end.  

 

Tor is 3rd in the Atlantic with 68 points and the NYI hold 2nd wildcard also with 68 pts.  Both teams, like the Sabres, have played 60 games.  The Loafs are only 4-3-3 in the last 10, while the NYI are 7-3 in their last 10.  The next two closest teams are the Bruins (68 pts in 61 games & 7-3 in their last 10), & the Panthers (66 pts in gms & 8-2 in their last 10).

 

The Sabres are 6-4 in their last 10, but obviously with the way the Bruins, Panthers and Islanders are playing of late, we actually lost ground in the playoff chase.

 

If the Leafs, the worst of the 4 teams fighting for 2 spots, continue t play at a 4-3-3 pace the rest of the way, they'd finish with 92 pts for the season (and likely out of the playoffs).  For us to match their 92 pts, we'd have to earn 30 pts in 22 games or 13-5-4.  Not impossible, but not exactly likely.  The last Sabres team t0 do it was the 2010-11 team that went 14-4-4 down the stretch to make the playoffs following Pegula's purchase of the team.  That team scored 240 goals for the season and had 11 double digit goal scorers including two defensemen and 2 30 goals scorers (Vanek and Stafford).


Edited by yse325, 24 February 2017 - 12:37 PM.


#18 RonHextallsShoulderPads

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 12:50 PM

We had a pretty huge comeback in the 2010-11 season, so we know it can be done. Does anyone know where we were in 2011 at about this same point?

 (probably nsfw)



#19 yse325

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 01:02 PM

29-25-6 (64 pts).  We were 26-22-5 when Pegula bought the team.

 

However, there were some substantial differences between then and now.  In 2010-11 the East had 3 divisions and there were three bad teams in the East that finished well below .500 pt wise.  

 

This season we are in 2 division and there are 4 teams in the Metro that are truly excellent and there are no bad teams.  The worst team in the East this year in playing .500 pts wise hockey with Carolina having 56 pts in 56 games.  The good news this time is that every team ahead of us in the standings in the Atlantic can still be mathematically caught by the Sabres. It's a much harder task this go around.


Edited by yse325, 24 February 2017 - 01:02 PM.


#20 Wyldnwoody44

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 12:38 AM

Sooo countdown, down to 11....and counting.... Stupid, sexy, prime numbers

#21 Doohickie

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 01:07 AM

Sooo countdown, down to 11....and counting.... Stupid, sexy, prime numbers

 

Yep.  :unsure:



#22 MattPie

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 07:31 AM

Big weekend for the countdown. :( I'll update the title shortly.

#23 Touched by Boyes

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 09:38 AM

Big weekend for the countdown. :( I'll update the title shortly.

At this rate your well conceived thread may have a short and disappointing life...



#24 MattPie

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 10:53 AM

At this rate your well conceived thread may have a short and disappointing life...

 

Only if I decide stop at 0 and not be negative. :(

 

Sample playoff record for the remaining 20 games: 15-4-1.


Edited by MattPie, 27 February 2017 - 11:22 AM.


#25 yse325

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Posted 27 February 2017 - 01:33 PM

Only if I decide stop at 0 and not be negative. :(
 
Sample playoff record for the remaining 20 games: 15-4-1.


With the sample record, might as well but the countdown at Zero now.

#26 MattPie

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 01:10 AM

And here I thought I wasn't going to have to update today. 0-2-1 for the last 3 ain't gonna cut it, guys.

#27 North Buffalo

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 01:26 AM

Hey Coover and Detroit received 1 loser point each and Detroit a winner point tonite to maintain and get closer to Sabres...  Both have a chance to catch the Sabres so Sabres can get a higher draft choice as they plummet in the standings.  So frustrated... for a moment there I thought about playoffs.  Defense is so one dimensional except McCabe and Risto...  Bogo has been trying but getting back hasn't been his strong suit and Kuli is done... Franson is a good but slow as crap 7 man...  Really liked it when Falk and Fedun played together.  D has lost a step since those guys were disbanded...



#28 rickshaw

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:02 PM

Sabres have a 1.1% chance of making the playoffs. Time to keep on losing.



#29 pi2000

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:08 PM

Sabres have a 1.1% chance of making the playoffs. Time to keep on losing.

 

They need to go 14-3-2 to have a >50% chance of getting in.

 

TOR chances dropped a whopping 10% down to 55% with their loss at SJS last night accompanied by BOS and FLA winning.



#30 Sabres Fan In NS

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 12:23 PM

So, there is still a chance, eh?

 

GO SABRES!!



#31 Huckleberry

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 07:49 PM

So, there is still a chance, eh?

 

GO SABRES!!

 

We got them right where we want them. :)



#32 Drunkard

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:59 PM

We got them right where we want them. :)


Heroic run to 9th here we come.

#33 MattPie

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 12:53 AM

Hey, for the first time I don't have to update the title! Yay!



#34 Wyldnwoody44

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 08:57 AM

Give it time young padawan

#35 Drunkard

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 10:08 AM

Heroic run to 10th here we come!



#36 MattPie

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 12:38 PM

Last 4: 1-2-1, 3 points of 8, @65 on the season.

All possible records to get to exactly 93 points (I think): 12-0-6, 13-1-4, 14-2-2, 15-4-0


Edited by MattPie, 03 March 2017 - 12:42 PM.


#37 d4rksabre

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 12:41 PM

Last 4: 1-2-1, 3 points of 8, @65 on the season.

Sample record to get to 93 points: 14-2-2

Totally possible now that GMTM gave them a pep talk! Yay! 



#38 MattPie

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 12:44 PM

Totally possible now that GMTM gave them a pep talk! Yay! 

 

I updated to give more options, makes it way more doable!



#39 d4rksabre

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 12:45 PM

I updated to give more options, makes it way more doable!

Oh totally!  :lol:



#40 Sabre fan

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 12:59 PM

I understand we are all tired of missing the playoffs but the truth is this team is far better then we tend to give credit for...if we had Eichel from the start, along with OReilly and kane both missing time with injuries, we'd probably be in a playoff position right now. Remember how many games we lost by a goal? Funny thing was our defense was keeping us in those games but we couldn;t score...now our offense is starting to really go good and the D suddenly gets bad! My own opinion (foir whatever that is worth) is that both Bogo and Kulikov are far better then we have seen and if for just once both could get healthy and start playing up to their potential that would solve most of our problems on the blueline. One thing for sure, our D is still better (and has more potential) then many teams in the NHL, including teams that are in the playoffs right now...