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Chance to be an all star based on draft position


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#1 mjd1001

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 03:40 PM

Obviously, the best place to draft is as high as you can be, but I did a little 10 minute exercise looking at all drafts in since the year 2000 and how many players have become "all stars". I didn't include the 2013 draft simply because those players haven't had a chance of becoming an all star yet.  My numbers are pretty close, I used 30 draft picks per round (I'm sure there was a year or two in there where they may have been an additional pick or one less pick, but I didn't go that far into it. Anyway, this is what I came up with.

(Also, draft picks and who became an all star courtesy of the wikipedia page of the NHL drafts for each year)

Top 5 pick:              38.5% of them have been an all-star at least one time.  (slightly better than 1 out of 3 chance)

Pick 5-10:               13.8%  (about a 1 in 7 chance)

Rest of first round:  6.2%   (about a 1 in 16 chance)

Second round:        2.8%   (about a 1 in 36 chance)

Third round:            1.0%  (1 in 100 chance)

Rest of draft:           0.6%  (about 1 in 170 chance)

Take from it what you will. Some 'all stars' are not players you might think highly of (Cam Ward was a one time all star I think) and there are other players never good enough to be an all star, but can be very valuable for a long time. I just thought the numbers above were interesting.

#2 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 05:39 PM

Yea, All-Star appearances aren't a perfect measure...but I still want you to have my children.

#3 WildCard

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 05:44 PM

Appreciate the work, nice job :thumbsup:

There have been a few other stats on this board about the relative success of players drafted in the first round and, IIRC, the thing that always sticks out is that 1-5 have a much, much higher chance of being successful than the rest of the draft does.

#4 mjd1001

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:01 PM

Now the question I have is this....with this year's draft supposedly being one that isn't all that good, where to the top guys rank compared to other drafts. For example, if Renihardt and Bennet were in the 2013 draft, were would they slot in?  3rd?  5th? 10th?

Of all the articles I read, and all the interviews I have heard on the topic, that is the one opinion I have not heard from an 'expert' yet.

#5 MattPie

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:07 PM

View Postmjd1001, on 18 March 2014 - 03:01 PM, said:

Now the question I have is this....with this year's draft supposedly being one that isn't all that good, where to the top guys rank compared to other drafts. For example, if Renihardt and Bennet were in the 2013 draft, were would they slot in?  3rd?  5th? 10th?

Of all the articles I read, and all the interviews I have heard on the topic, that is the one opinion I have not heard from an 'expert' yet.

People have talked about it here, but I'm not sure anyone has put a number on it. There's a few players that folks are talking about next year "that would be #1 in this draft", but that's just speculation.

#6 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:20 PM

View Postmjd1001, on 18 March 2014 - 03:01 PM, said:

Now the question I have is this....with this year's draft supposedly being one that isn't all that good DEEP, where to the top guys rank compared to other drafts. For example, if Renihardt and Bennet were in the 2013 draft, were would they slot in?  3rd?  5th? 10th?

Of all the articles I read, and all the interviews I have heard on the topic, that is the one opinion I have not heard from an 'expert' yet.
Fixed it.  This draft is fine, it just isn't as deep as last years. For instance JT Compher probably goes in the upper 20's this year as opposed to 35th last year.

#7 qwksndmonster

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:27 PM

View PostLGR4GM, on 18 March 2014 - 03:20 PM, said:

Fixed it.  This draft is fine, it just isn't as deep as last years. For instance JT Compher probably goes in the upper 20's this year as opposed to 35th last year.
JT Compher probably slots in anywhere from 17-24 this draft.  That's how freakin' deep last years draft was.

#8 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:29 PM

View Postqwksndmonster, on 18 March 2014 - 03:27 PM, said:

JT Compher probably slots in anywhere from 17-24 this draft.  That's how freakin' deep last years draft was.
He could.  This thing is the top end talent in this draft is just as good as the top end talent in the last draft. MacKinnon is comparable to Bennett and Reinhart

#9 Derrico

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:31 PM

View PostLGR4GM, on 18 March 2014 - 03:29 PM, said:

He could.  This thing is the top end talent in this draft is just as good as the top end talent in the last draft. MacKinnon is comparable to Bennett and Reinhart

No way.  I hope you're right I just don't think they will be MacKinnon good (I know your point projections say otherwise) but I don't see it.

#10 qwksndmonster

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:32 PM

I'd have Reinhart at 5 in that draft and Bennett at 7 behind Lindholm but ahead of Monahan.

Edit: Actually, I'm having trouble deciding on Lindholm and Bennett.  I think Lindholm would get picked first because he's a center but I'd rather have Bennett.

Edited by qwksndmonster, 18 March 2014 - 03:38 PM.


#11 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:38 PM

View PostDerrico, on 18 March 2014 - 03:31 PM, said:

No way.  I hope you're right I just don't think they will be MacKinnon good (I know your point projections say otherwise) but I don't see it.
They are comparable but I would say MacKinnon and Barkov are a hair above Bennett and Reinhart.  I think they all bring a different style and skill to the table.  That being said I think all 4 players are deserving of top picks.

We will need to see Bennett and Reinhart in the NHL first before we can really get a feel for who is better.

#12 Tankalicious

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:47 PM

View PostLGR4GM, on 18 March 2014 - 03:29 PM, said:

MacKinnon is comparable to Bennett and Reinhart

Well that's just not true...

Ranking forwards in the last two drafts (not considering what last year's prospects have done this year):

MacKinnon
Drouin
Barkov
Monahan
Reinhart
Lindholm
Nichushkin
Bennett

That's opinion, but I'd be surprised if you could find a scout who would have Reinhart above or on the same level as MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov... He's on the level of Monahan and Lindholm. With Bennett being just below them.

#13 mjd1001

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 03:55 PM

1. You have the once in a generation guys (like Lemeiux, Crosby, Lindros, and it appears McDavid.)

2. Below them you have the almost-as-good-but-not-quite generational guys (like McKinnon, Tavares, P.Turgeon, Ovechkin, etc)

3. Below them you have most other first overall picks.

4. And finally, you have a draft every now and then where the first overall pick would normally slot-in around 3rd-5th in most other drafts.

I guess I'm wondering what category of a player/prospect the Sabres are getting this year?

Edited by mjd1001, 18 March 2014 - 03:59 PM.


#14 qwksndmonster

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Posted 18 March 2014 - 06:17 PM

View Postmjd1001, on 18 March 2014 - 03:55 PM, said:

1. You have the once in a generation guys (like Lemeiux, Crosby, Lindros, and it appears McDavid.)

2. Below them you have the almost-as-good-but-not-quite generational guys (like McKinnon, Tavares, P.Turgeon, Ovechkin, etc)

3. Below them you have most other first overall picks.

4. And finally, you have a draft every now and then where the first overall pick would normally slot-in around 3rd-5th in most other drafts.

I guess I'm wondering what category of a player/prospect the Sabres are getting this year?
I think Reinhart will end up a similar player to Parise.