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#1 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 06:54 PM

Rain = 71% extra candy keepage for Drane......

And I love how the Bills get 1,000 resumes, and decide on the 20 year employee of a company that was in business for over a century, who plunged into the abyss and bankruptcy. I'm sure the numbers said everything was going to be A-OK!!!! Sure....your pension is worth pennies on the dollar, but the numbers never lie.......

#2 PASabreFan

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 07:53 PM

I thought this was going to be about how Ted Black's nerdy interns have pulled off a coup d'├ętat in Sabres hockey.

#3 Eleven

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 08:08 PM

Frankly, DD, we could have a really good thread about analytics (I hate that neologism) that isn't off topic.  Hockey is starting to use it, we can use this thread.  What say you?

Edited by Eleven, 31 October 2013 - 08:08 PM.


#4 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 08:47 PM

Use it....

It validates the 108-130 IQ realm.....

#5 rakish

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 11:50 PM

100% candy keepage, perfect weather, does this count as analytics?

Edit: I've been thinking about Ghost's comment about a week ago regarding him as GM with a dozen or so SS assistants.  I think one of the problems the Sabres have (and having seen the Flyers and the Blue Jackets draft videos, they have as well) is that they are an echo chamber.  I think Ghost's vision of management would have a much wider perspective on solutions, we (or more likely they) would hate each other, but it wouldn't be an echo chamber where Stafford is OK.  I think the problem is that Black has a law degree not an MBA, so he doesn't think in organizational structuring terms.

There's a buzzword for this, but I believe it requires an IQ outside of 108-130.

Edited by RCentered, 01 November 2013 - 12:14 AM.


#6 FolignosJock

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 08:24 AM

I sent him my resume to hopefully intern or work for the Bills. Working on my MBA and have extensive military analysis experience. Who is running the Sabres Anlaytics? I hear they are doing it now but not much else....

#7 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 09:30 AM

View PostFolignosJock, on 01 November 2013 - 08:24 AM, said:

I sent him my resume to hopefully intern or work for the Bills. Working on my MBA and have extensive military analysis experience. Who is running the Sabres Anlaytics? I hear they are doing it now but not much else....

There is nothing wrong with putting yourself out there. I just found it funny they went with a guy from a company that went down the tank over the past 10-15 years and is pretty much stagnant. Now get me the analytics guy from Stabucks!!!

My favorite yesterday was Ted Black trying to support the Sabres tanking plan by saying that 53% of all goals scored are scored by 1st round draft picks.

That's nice Ted....what you failed to tell us is that 68% of all Sabres goals this year have been scored by 1st round draft picks!!!!

Congrats. You found a monkey ballz number.

That's the biggest thing with all of this analytics fad. It's not bad to have numbers at your disposal, but if you have no clue as to which variables and correlations actually mean something as opposed to going along for the ride with common sense...you spend all your time chasing boogey men. Don't you think that one of the reasons the 4th down percentage "says" to go for it is because you catch people off guard and it isn't a regular anticipated strategy? The Wildcat worked great when 1 team went with it for a few months. The read-option looked good in Washington et al for a while too. Eventually repercussions happen. Nature has a way of working itself out.

The 3 biggest scores of my horseracing life came by going against what the numbers said, but with what I saw. The scores were so big in those respective pools, (Derby Future/ Pick-6 / Superfecta), that my ROI lifetime in those pools is so positive, in at least 2 of them it would be hard to ever go negative with the scarcity I play them. Now my lifetime Trifecta ROI......ehhhh...that's another story! The moral of the story is there are numbers galore out there...and when enough people start trending towards making certain ones relevant....the smart play becomes the CONTRARIAN play. You get rewarded for it. I am as much of a numbers guy as anyone......you just have to be smart enough to know when to be smart.



#8 rakish

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 09:47 AM

View PostFolignosJock, on 01 November 2013 - 08:24 AM, said:

I sent him my resume to hopefully intern or work for the Bills. Working on my MBA and have extensive military analysis experience. Who is running the Sabres Anlaytics? I hear they are doing it now but not much else....

There a recent Buffalo News article about the new hire, the part about the spreadsheet made me giggle.

My favorite yesterday was Ted Black trying to support the Sabres tanking plan by saying that 53% of all goals scored are scored by 1st round draft picks.

My flippant response to that would be "Then you are saying the Sabres need to take forwards in the first round"

I think you are right Ghost, what I find interesting about the Sabres is that they don't know who to play with who, which is why you have to have more powerful tools than a spreadsheet.  Hodgson and Ennis were terrible together last year, yet here they go again.  Myers needs an offensive partner because he doesn't like to think and play hockey at the same time.

I wonder what the internal number for season tickets next year is.

#9 Wraith

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 09:55 AM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 31 October 2013 - 06:54 PM, said:

And I love how the Bills get 1,000 resumes, and decide on the 20 year employee of a company that was in business for over a century, who plunged into the abyss and bankruptcy. I'm sure the numbers said everything was going to be A-OK!!!! Sure....your pension is worth pennies on the dollar, but the numbers never lie.......
I think you are confusing Xerox with Kodak. The new guy worked for Xerox which has not existed for a century yet and has not gone bankrupt.

#10 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 10:58 AM

View PostWraith, on 01 November 2013 - 09:55 AM, said:

I think you are confusing Xerox with Kodak. The new guy worked for Xerox which has not existed for a century yet and has not gone bankrupt.

I should have said on the verge of bankruptcy.

They ran the stock up in the late 90's with fudged numbers and were almost gone in 2001. If you get rid of that fraudulent period, you'd be better off with your cash under a mattress. That's why I laugh at the hire. The Bills guy was there for the height of the shenanigans and collapse.

They have been around since 1906.

#11 Eleven

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 11:05 AM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 01 November 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

I should have said on the verge of bankruptcy.

They ran the stock up in the late 90's with fudged numbers and were almost gone in 2001. If you get rid of that fraudulent period, you'd be better off with your cash under a mattress. That's why I laugh at the hire. The Bills guy was there for the height of the shenanigans and collapse.

They have been around since 1906.

They have been around since 1906, when Joseph Xerox founded the company.

But this guy's career there has nothing whatsoever to do with what he's going to do with the Bills.

#12 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 12:17 PM

View PostEleven, on 01 November 2013 - 11:05 AM, said:



They have been around since 1906, when Joseph Xerox founded the company.

But this guy's career there has nothing whatsoever to do with what he's going to do with the Bills.

The guy may be great....I just found it funny.

Maybe he can run a spreadsheet on the hottest potential Jills. My guess is the 89% efficient Jill will have been raised in a 1 parent household anywhere between the age of 5 and 16, will average 1.83 tattoos, 0.74 unwanted pregnancies, 83.7 in high school, almost completed their associates degree but is "one class short", and will live within a 2 mile radius of the Cheektowaga/Depew border.

Come'on Russ.....get him on that! Not literally....just the spreadsheet.

#13 qwksndmonster

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 12:47 PM

Drane, don't you not believe in math or something?

#14 Yuri Olesha

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 03:50 PM

I'd like to be the guy in charge of predicting future achievements in the face of current failures.  I see our current abysmal performances as a sure sign that things are headed in the right direction.  If one season at the basement of the NHL standings is a sure-fire way to win exactly one Stanley Cup, I am advocating multiple seasons at the basement of the NHL standings.  If we can achieve the lowest recorded point total in NHL history this season, and then better that result with an even lower total next season, the I deduce, nay, I promise, that we will be winning Stanley Cups and breaking scoring records as a direct result!  

I've analyzed the data, and see that we have the youngest team in the NHL this season, but that isn't good enough.  We can do better.  We can set our sights even higher!  What about the AHL?  What about the OHL?  What about the ECHL?  I've scouted the barns and backyard rinks all across North America, and I look at those teams, and those kids, and I think, "Now, that is what a Stanley Cup contender looks like!"  Get them in here, and allow them to compete at the highest level, and I guarantee you they will thrive.

We're too old across the entire organization.  Our ideas are as stale as the cigarette butts Perrault crushed on the dressing room floor.  Analytics are a thing of the past.  I don't even use them anymore, because I got turned on to Proto-analytics a long time ago, and it makes basic analytics look like horse and buggy ######.  

I'm a little reluctant to explain it, because it truly does take a genius to fully grasp, but I'll use an example in layman's terms.  Black says that 53% of goals scored in the NHL are by first-rounders.  Analytics would say that means you need more first-rounders, right?  Wrong!  Proto-analytics tells you that it simply means you need more first rounds!  

We could easily accumulate more first rounds than any other NHL team through sheer inventiveness.  There's no rule in the book that says your first rounder has to be signed through the NHL draft.  We could hold multiple alternative drafts each season, secret drafts, where we'd be the only team drafting in the first round.  We could even have multiple first rounds in each draft! And I'll bet no other team would ever catch on to the trick, or be able to match our proto-analysis, till the Stanley Cup and Hall of Fame were jam packed with Sabres names.  

I've got a lot of ideas like that.  If the Sabres weren't such idiots, I'd already be running the team.

Edited by Yuri Olesha, 01 November 2013 - 05:51 PM.


#15 PASabreFan

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 03:59 PM

Thanks for reminding me of a question I've had a for while, Yuri. Let's say the next Great One, the next Gretzky, is a Buffalo kid who loves the Sabres. Let's say he's six. His dream of course is to play for the Sabres, but when the time comes he knows the Sabres won't be able to draft him. Can he stay out of the draft and sign on his own with the Sabres?

#16 Yuri Olesha

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 04:21 PM

From what I googled, if he wanted to play in the NHL, he'd have to enter the draft.  If he wanted to avoid the draft, he'd have to make himself undraftable till any draft rights expire.  The best strategy, for such a talented player, I suppose, would be to fake a serious mental illness (does wanting to play for the Sabres count) get passed over by all teams, keeping up appearances, so to speak, while privately honing his craft for multiple years? and then get a private workout, sign on as a free agent, and set the league on fire.  It would take some cunning, but I don't think it's impossible.  


#17 Sabres Fan In NS

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 11:24 AM

We should have a telethon to raise funds so that Yuri can buy the Sabres.