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Ted Black Spewing '71 Canadiens as Sabres plan


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#1 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:14 PM

OK....I'm getting sick of this "embrace the rebuild" stuff.

Ted Black tries to allude to the fact that the Sabres have a solid plan by stockpiling draft picks in the 1st 2 rounds over a period of years....BECAUSE...the Montreal Canadiens did so in the early 70's.

Those draft picks in a vacuum are just fine....however, cementing a losing culture and feeding young players to the wolves in the midst of that losing culture while under the control of the same GM that has cemented that losing culture is about as disgusting as it comes.

Yes...Montreal drafted some really great players with all those draft picks.

Lets look at the FACTS

1)In the 15 seasons prior to those draft picks, MONTREAL HAD WON 9 STANLEY CUPS!!!!

Yes, you read that correctly. While the Buffalo Sabres are pimping a plan as foolproof, the same organization that has visited the finals ONCE in the previous 15 seasons under the current GM who has the team out of the gate to 1 win in 10 games, the Canadiens were TRULY Hockey Heaven. 9 Cups in 15 years.

2)The Canadiens WON the Stanley Cup the year that they started stockpiling those high draft picks. Yes....you read that correctly. While Ted will tell you that those picks were being stockpiled, what he doesn't tell you is that they were the Stanley Cup Champions as they stockpiled those picks. That's a far cry from zero playoff series wins in 7 years and missing the playoffs while being at or near the league lead in player spending, then starting a season 1-8-1.

Montreal ALSO won the Cup in 1973

3)There were 14 teams in the league in 1971 and 18 in 1975. As those picks were being made...WHILE winning a Cup, there were half as many teams, thus making the impact of the talent at those picks twice as likely to be top level, if we are to subscribe to the numbers others have posted here about the draft slot and NHL impact.

Of those 21 picks.....19 of them would be 1st round picks in the current draft. 9 picks were in the top 10 of the draft. Again...winning Stanley Cups in 1971 and 1973 as this process was happening.


It just disgusts me that this is the support for the "plan" the Sabres seem to be selling.


And you know what? This has Darcy written all over it. I'm willing to wager Mr. Black a dinner that Darcy was the one who brought this information to Mr. Pegula and himself. It is the type of disingenuous spreadsheet mining that Darcy has done over the years to deflect failure. Mr. Black doesn't have to answer this, but he will read it, and he will see.

I just felt the need to say this since the discussion is going on in multiple threads.







#2 dudacek

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:21 PM

Glad you started this thread. It deserves more conversation.
For context, I'll copy my post on exactly what those Canadiens did with those picks from the less appropriate thread.

What Montreal did with their 21 first and second rounders over four years

1971: 1) Lafleur 7) Chuck Arnason, 11) Murray Wilson 20) Robinson 24) Michel DeGuise, 25) Terry French
1972: 4) Shutt 6) Laroque 8) Dave Gardner, 14) John Van Boxmeer
1973: 8) Gainey, 17) Glenn Goldup 22) Peter Marrin, 32) Ron Andruff
1974: 5) Cam Connor, 7) Risebrough 10) Rick Chartraw 12) Mario Tremblay, 15) Gord McTavish, 30 Gary MacGregor, 33) Gilles Lupien


Two franchise players (Lafleur and Robinson)
One first-liner (Shutt)
A shutdown forward (Gainey)
Two hard-to-play-against top nine forwards (Risebrough, Tremblay)
Four NHL regulars: Arnason, Gardner, Van Boxmeer and Wilson
A back-up goalie (Laroque)
Five fringe NHLers: Connor, Chartraw, Lupien, Andruff and Goldup
Five busts: Deguise, French, Marrin, McTavish and McGregor


I think Ghost makes a great point about the environment these kids were nurtured in.
To be clear, Darcy has also raised the same point, but raising it is not the same as addressing it.

Edited by dudacek, 21 October 2013 - 01:22 PM.


#3 Kristian

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:24 PM

I can't be bothered until Regier is gone.

#4 neverenough

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:28 PM

View PostKristian, on 21 October 2013 - 01:24 PM, said:

I can't be bothered until Regier is gone.
I think Ted Black is just as bad. The guy sounds pathetic!

#5 IKnowPhysics

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:31 PM

The only comparison to the Canadiens I've heard from Ted Black was the idea that the Canadiens were the only team to draft more 1st and 2nd rounders in a four year period.  No mention of using them as a model, no mention of using them as any sort of justification, and really no other comparisons made.  What am I missing?  Has there actually been anything said by the organization that cites the '71 Canadiens as the model for the rebuild?

Relative to the Canadiens, I've heard at least 20 times more use of the Blackhawks, Penguins, and Bruins as potential models, wherein teams bottom out, collect high picks, and rebuild through the draft.  Darcy Regier has mentioned at least one or two of these teams, as has (I think) Ted Black, and not to mention many, many posters around here.

#6 shrader

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:34 PM

View PostIKnowPhysics, on 21 October 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

The only comparison to the Canadiens I've heard from Ted Black was the idea that the Canadiens were the only team to draft more 1st and 2nd rounders in a four year period.  No mention of using them as a model, no mention of using them as any sort of justification, and really no other comparisons made.  What am I missing?  Has there actually been anything said by the organization that cites the '71 Canadiens as the model for the rebuild?

Relative to the Canadiens, I've heard at least 20 times more use of the Blackhawks, Penguins, and Bruins as potential models, wherein teams bottom out, collect high picks, and rebuild through the draft.  Darcy Regier has mentioned at least one or two of these teams, as has (I think) Ted Black, and not to mention many, many posters around here.

Are you thinking of a different team for the 3rd slot on your list?  Boston rebuild via free agency and trades.

#7 Spndnchz

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:35 PM

I don't want to hear any more of it.  I just want it fixed.

#8 That Aud Smell

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:39 PM

I don't begrudge Ted the stuff about the Canadiens. I heard him talking about it on Simon's show (when, contrary to what Harrington wrote over the weekend, he DID NOT say that firing Darcy would be a panic move (I just don't get Harrington--I used to think he would miscontrue things intentionally; I'm beginning to wonder whether he's just not a good listener/reader)) and he seemed, to me, to be using the tidbit as historical reference, nothing more. Just something to emphasize that the franchise has a boat load of round 1 and 2 picks.

Black is Pegula's spokesman. He's there to speak the company line in what are the darkest of days for Sabres hockey. So, whatever. We stink and we've got a whole mess of early round picks.

The problem, to me, keeps coming back to the #Blueprint nonsense. Who the hell knows if most or even some of these guys are going to pan out. Grigorenko could be back in the KHL permanently by the time next year rolls around. Also, having your Round 1 and 2 picks on the ice getting trucked by borderline/competent/good/great NHL players is doing nothing to advance the franchise's fortunes.

It also makes me want to scream -- literally, I feel the urge -- when Simon and White (maybe Schopp and Bulldog too) try to fill an hour of air time by comparing/contrasting the Bills' and Sabres' efforts to rebuild through the draft. There is no basis for comparing the two leagues when it comes to their amateur/entry drafts. None. I don't have the time, energy, or acumen to go through why this is. I just know that there's not a reasonably educated fan of both teams who would disagree with that point.

#9 dudacek

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:40 PM

Ted defended the plan by stating the Canadiens were the only team to have more high picks over a four-year run than the Sabres are currently in the midst of. It's hardly been a franchise rallying cry, but he certainly strongly implied it was reason to have faith in what the team was doing.

#10 Kristian

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:48 PM

View Postdudacek, on 21 October 2013 - 01:40 PM, said:

Ted defended the plan by stating the Canadiens were the only team to have more high picks over a four-year run than the Sabres are currently in the midst of. It's hardly been a franchise rallying cry, but he certainly strongly implied it was reason to have faith in what the team was doing.

My problem is, Darcy could draft an 18-year old Wayne Gretzky tomorrow, and I still wouldn't have any faith that guy would turn into a top-NHL'er, let alone a superstar.

That's where I'm at right now. I just don't care.

Edited by Kristian, 21 October 2013 - 01:48 PM.


#11 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:50 PM

View PostIKnowPhysics, on 21 October 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

The only comparison to the Canadiens I've heard from Ted Black was the idea that the Canadiens were the only team to draft more 1st and 2nd rounders in a four year period.  No mention of using them as a model, no mention of using them as any sort of justification, and really no other comparisons made.  What am I missing?  Has there actually been anything said by the organization that cites the '71 Canadiens as the model for the rebuild?

Relative to the Canadiens, I've heard at least 20 times more use of the Blackhawks, Penguins, and Bruins as potential models, wherein teams bottom out, collect high picks, and rebuild through the draft.  Darcy Regier has mentioned at least one or two of these teams, as has (I think) Ted Black, and not to mention many, many posters around here.

I guess Ted might as well roll out multiple times...."Veins, Veins, Veins sponsored the Edmonton Oilers in the mid 80's....the only other team in history to be sponsored by them..." and it would be just as relevant.

Other facts:

1) If the Sabres were to finish DEAD LAST in the league the next 3 years...there is only a 1.56% chance they will end up with the top pick in those drafts.

2) Darcy Regier DID stockpile 1st and 2nd round draft picks before...

From 1998 -2001, Darcy had 14 1st and 2nd round picks in those drafts.

As he was drafting those players....the Sabres MADE the Stanley Cup 1 year and the Conference Finals 2 of the 4 years.

While letting those 14 picks develop over those 4 years AND having a Stanley Cup caliber team....the Sabres proceeded to MISS the playoffs the Next 3 seasons. This is opposed to starting this "high quantity of high picks" period by missing the playoffs 2 years and starting with the worst record in franchise history.

Those 14 top picks over a 4 year period were:

Dimitri Kalinin
Andrew Peters
Norm Miley
Jaroslav Kristek
Barrett Heisten
Milan Bartovic
Doug Janik
Mike Zigomanis
Artem Kryukov
Gerard Dicaire
Jiri Novotny
Derek Roy
Chris Thornburn
Jason Pominville


Again....Darcy Regier....implementing the same proposed plan....WHILE having a Stanley Cup team (we won't debate why that was the case in this thread)...and this is who he came up with.

It is impossible for us fans to get the ear of the Sabres owner....so I feel this is the only way to truly show what we are in store for. We are only 3 weeks into what could very well be the better part of a decade of suffering if we maintain status quo.

#12 Kristian

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 01:58 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 01:50 PM, said:

I guess Ted might as well roll out multiple times...."Veins, Veins, Veins sponsored the Edmonton Oilers in the mid 80's....the only other team in history to be sponsored by them..." and it would be just as relevant.

Other facts:

1) If the Sabres were to finish DEAD LAST in the league the next 3 years...there is only a 1.56% chance they will end up with the top pick in those drafts.

2) Darcy Regier DID stockpile 1st and 2nd round draft picks before...

From 1998 -2001, Darcy had 14 1st and 2nd round picks in those drafts.

As he was drafting those players....the Sabres MADE the Stanley Cup 1 year and the Conference Finals 2 of the 4 years.

While letting those 14 picks develop over those 4 years AND having a Stanley Cup caliber team....the Sabres proceeded to MISS the playoffs the Next 3 seasons. This is opposed to starting this "high quantity of high picks" period by missing the playoffs 2 years and starting with the worst record in franchise history.

Those 14 top picks over a 4 year period were:

Dimitri Kalinin
Andrew Peters
Norm Miley
Jaroslav Kristek
Barrett Heisten
Milan Bartovic
Doug Janik
Mike Zigomanis
Artem Kryukov
Gerard Dicaire
Jiri Novotny
Derek Roy
Chris Thornburn
Jason Pominville



Again....Darcy Regier....implementing the same proposed plan....WHILE having a Stanley Cup team (we won't debate why that was the case in this thread)...and this is who he came up with.

It is impossible for us fans to get the ear of the Sabres owner....so I feel this is the only way to truly show what we are in store for. We are only 3 weeks into what could very well be the better part of a decade of suffering if we maintain status quo.

This just makes me sick.

#13 That Aud Smell

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:04 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 01:50 PM, said:

From 1998 -2001, Darcy had 14 1st and 2nd round picks in those drafts.

Those 14 top picks over a 4 year period were:

Dimitri Kalinin
Barrett Heisten
Artem Kryukov
Jiri Novotny
the first round picks in that span ranged from slots 15-22. to hear jeremy white tell it (and boy does he), it's a far more foolproof proposition to pick in the top 3 or 5 for the same period of time.

i have my doubts.

Edited by That Aud Smell, 21 October 2013 - 02:05 PM.


#14 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:05 PM

View PostSpndnchz, on 21 October 2013 - 01:35 PM, said:

I don't want to hear any more of it.  I just want it fixed.

I understand. Darcy gets to talk to Mr. Pegula every day. None of us get the chance to talk to him at all.

The only way of a Hail Mary to hope that things get fixed are to show that those of us who have closely followed proceedings with Regier at the helm, UNDERSTAND how he works....what he does....and to honestly present information that would show counter to his actions.

I still believe this franchise can have a great future with Mr. Pegula, and if left to concentrate on building instead of deflecting, Mr. Black as President.

We are just all fans who have expertise in many other areas, but love the team and the game. None of us signed a Multi year Golden Parachute as the closing of the sale of the team was taking place. None of us collect $1.5 million a year from the Buffalo Sabres. We only have passion, loyalty, and experience. To me....that is a heck of a lot less conflict of interest than someone receiving a paycheck.

Perceived "Negativity Bubble" or not.....eventually logic needs to prevail from logical people. If Regier was making $30,000 a year, I would truly understand trying to protect him. He's a big boy, with most likely 150x the net worth of the median poster on this board.

I've only ever spoken from my heart and my head.....not my wallet.

#15 Derrico

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:40 PM

View PostThat Aud Smell, on 21 October 2013 - 02:04 PM, said:

the first round picks in that span ranged from slots 15-22. to hear jeremy white tell it (and boy does he), it's a far more foolproof proposition to pick in the top 3 or 5 for the same period of time.

i have my doubts.

The top 3 picks in each of those years include

Vinny Lecaviler
David Legwand
Brad Stuart
Patrik Stephan
D Sedin
H Sedin
Rick Dipietro
Danny Heatly
Marion Gaborik
IIya Kovalchuk
Jason Spetza
Alexander Svitov

There were some duds in there but better players come at the top of the draft, on average.

Edited by Derrico, 21 October 2013 - 02:41 PM.


#16 LGR4GM

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:47 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 02:05 PM, said:

I understand. Darcy gets to talk to Mr. Pegula every day. None of us get the chance to talk to him at all.

The only way of a Hail Mary to hope that things get fixed are to show that those of us who have closely followed proceedings with Regier at the helm, UNDERSTAND how he works....what he does....and to honestly present information that would show counter to his actions.

I still believe this franchise can have a great future with Mr. Pegula, and if left to concentrate on building instead of deflecting, Mr. Black as President.

We are just all fans who have expertise in many other areas, but love the team and the game. None of us signed a Multi year Golden Parachute as the closing of the sale of the team was taking place. None of us collect $1.5 million a year from the Buffalo Sabres. We only have passion, loyalty, and experience. To me....that is a heck of a lot less conflict of interest than someone receiving a paycheck.

Perceived "Negativity Bubble" or not.....eventually logic needs to prevail from logical people. If Regier was making $30,000 a year, I would truly understand trying to protect him. He's a big boy, with most likely 150x the net worth of the median poster on this board.

I've only ever spoken from my heart and my head.....not my wallet.
I think I am kinda figuring out how Regier works.  His plan currently is to go after a certain type of player.  That player is gritty with a good 2-way game.  Those are the types of players they have drafted over the last couple years.  The issue I have is that Regier does not have the forsight to think more than 1year ahead.  He is thinking about how this team will look next year.  I think a GM should do that and then look beyond.  Planning the year for a cup run the best he can.  I think he only looks a year out by the way he hands out contracts and by the way he handles draft picks.  I think Kevin Devine plans further but DR is really only worried about the immediate future.

Rasmus Ristolainen, Mikhail Grigorenko, Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson, Nikita Zadorov.  All of these players have shown or at least hinted at their ability to play at the NHL level.  Some may in fact be ready right now to be up here.  But let us look into the future and what would be best.  Right now the team is a disaster with a losing mentality and one of the worse records in the NHL.  Okay so this year is most likely a lost year unless a small miracle occurs.  So what would be the best plan to get the most out of these players in terms of developing them into high class NHL talent.  The answer is painfully obvious.  Those that can go to Rochester should go.  Those who can go to Juniors should go.  Whatever minor contributions they can give to this team are not enough to propel it to the playoffs at this time.  As such they would be better off getting monster minutes at lesser levels.  Even Grigorenko would have been better off playing 20mins in the Q than playing 10mins in Buffalo.  There is a very good reason the Redwings have made the playoffs for 22 years and part of that is not rushing prospects.

Rasmus: Could use his time in Rochester to get use to the speed of the NA game and to hone his skills against NA players.
Girgensons and Larsson: Can continue to develop chemistry and add experience while playing in every situation for Rochester.  They can develop into well rounded players under less strain than what Buffalo is forcing on them.
Grigorenko: They already ###### this up.  He should have stayed down all last season.  He wasn't ready and we knew it.  He needs time to mature and understand he needs to up his compete level and after a 9 game run in Buffalo he would have already known that. he could have gone back to Q and worked on aspects of his game not explored before (Positioning, Compete, Defense).
Zadorov:  He shows great signs of being a really good if not great defender.  His OHL team is coached by the Hunters who have developed some good players.  He could get 25+ mins a night and learn more and grow.  He would be better off coming into the team next year with another season of OHL action under his belt.

The only thing that Regier and company have done correctly is they have left the College Players in College.  This I think is due in part to the College Players not wanting to move over to the NHL to quickly and losing there NCAA eligibility.

Vague notion as opposed to a plan = Darcy Regier.

#17 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:53 PM

View PostDerrico, on 21 October 2013 - 02:40 PM, said:



The top 3 picks in each of those years include

Vinny Lecaviler
David Legwand
Brad Stuart
Patrik Stephan
D Sedin
H Sedin
Rick Dipietro
Danny Heatly
Marion Gaborik
IIya Kovalchuk
Jason Spetza
Alexander Svitov

There were some duds in there but better players come at the top of the draft, on average.
To my count, there are 7 really good players...a few you could argue "impact"....a few solid players...and a few washouts.

Look at that list though in terms of the talent/grit debate.

Of the 7 best players....all 7 of them have been hounded by their fans for not getting their team over the hump and to the promised land, and for playing a softer game. Vinnie is the only one there who sealed the deal, and that was when he was a baby. Gaborik, Spezza, Kovy, the Sedins, Heatley.....all of them either got run out of town or their coach run out of town. Not saying it's always that way, just an observation.

Sure...you have a better chance at getting impact guys with top picks. If they are surrounded by disaster, it won't matter.

#18 Jsixspd

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:55 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 02:05 PM, said:

I understand. Darcy gets to talk to Mr. Pegula every day. None of us get the chance to talk to him at all.

The only way of a Hail Mary to hope that things get fixed are to show that those of us who have closely followed proceedings with Regier at the helm, UNDERSTAND how he works....what he does....and to honestly present information that would show counter to his actions.

I still believe this franchise can have a great future with Mr. Pegula, and if left to concentrate on building instead of deflecting, Mr. Black as President.

We are just all fans who have expertise in many other areas, but love the team and the game. None of us signed a Multi year Golden Parachute as the closing of the sale of the team was taking place. None of us collect $1.5 million a year from the Buffalo Sabres. We only have passion, loyalty, and experience. To me....that is a heck of a lot less conflict of interest than someone receiving a paycheck.

Perceived "Negativity Bubble" or not.....eventually logic needs to prevail from logical people. If Regier was making $30,000 a year, I would truly understand trying to protect him. He's a big boy, with most likely 150x the net worth of the median poster on this board.

I've only ever spoken from my heart and my head.....not my wallet.

This has been my concern for some time - everyone seems to focus on the 1st and 2nd rd picks that Regier gets with his trades - and ignore the disturbing fact that Regier will be the one using those picks.    I don't have much confidence in his ability to pick well.  

But.... there's a good chance that Pegula is actually making a lot of the picks and Regier is the Yes-Man who implements them for Pegula.   So maybe Pegula will be better than Regier at it?  I think that's the only hope we have of seeing a good Sabres team forming,  since I don't see Pegula getting rid of Regier any time soon.

#19 carpandean

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 02:58 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 01:50 PM, said:

1) If the Sabres were to finish DEAD LAST in the league the next 3 years...there is only a 1.56% chance they will end up with the top pick in those drafts.

To be fair, there's a 1.56% chance that they end up with all three #1's, but the mix would never be bad:
1.56% chance of three #1 picks
14.06% chance of two #1 picks and one #2 pick
42.19% chance of one #1 pick and two #2 picks
42.19% chance of three #2 picks

From the sounds of it, the 2015 draft is the one that you really want that #1 in.  25% chance, if they finish dead last next season.

(And, no, I'm not trying to support Darcy in any way, shape or form.  Just keeping the argument complete.)

Edited by carpandean, 21 October 2013 - 02:58 PM.


#20 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:00 PM

And good post LGR.

That has been the M/O or Regier....reactionary instead of visionary.

Look what has happened this year though. The guys who were awakened last year when Rolston took over were the grit guys with some talent....Ott and Weber were being talked about glowingly. This year Weber has crumbled by trying to do too much early, and I have no idea what Ott is thinking at times. He went from an "untouchable" who was assumed to be resigned, to being talked about in the shipout by people.

If you don't have the culture to start with....it is a much tougher hill to climb. How many games does Girgensons bust his butt off before understanding he is going to abuse his body to finish last? Without proper support, it is like sending soldiers on a suicide mission. Of course there are going to be defectors once they see the artillery and supplies retreat, and the first few waves of guys get massacred. Pride only works so long....you have to believe in what you are fighting for, even if you know you are outmanned.

#21 That Aud Smell

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:07 PM

View PostDerrico, on 21 October 2013 - 02:40 PM, said:

The top 3 picks in each of those years include

Vinny Lecaviler
David Legwand
Brad Stuart
Patrik Stephan
D Sedin
H Sedin
Rick Dipietro
Danny Heatly
Marion Gaborik
IIya Kovalchuk
Jason Spetza
Alexander Svitov

There were some duds in there but better players come at the top of the draft, on average.

Good stuff - thanks. I'm trying to group those guys, based on what I can recall and readily find via hockeydb and such. I think it's a 75% rate of success (9 of 12), with 7 of 12 being top-end players for a long period of time.

Great/Elite
Vinny Lecaviler
D Sedin
H Sedin
Danny Heatly
Marion Gaborik
IIya Kovalchuk
Jason Spetza

Solid Top-6 Forward/Top 4 D-Man
David Legwand
Brad Stuart

Decent/Marginal NHL Player
Patrik Stephan
Rick Dipietro

Bust
Alexander Svitov

#22 shrader

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:07 PM

View Postcarpandean, on 21 October 2013 - 02:58 PM, said:

To be fair, there's a 1.56% chance that they end up with all three #1's, but the mix would never be bad:
1.56% chance of three #1 picks
14.06% chance of two #1 picks and one #2 pick
42.19% chance of one #1 pick and two #2 picks
42.19% chance of three #2 picks

From the sounds of it, the 2015 draft is the one that you really want that #1 in.  25% chance, if they finish dead last next season.

(And, no, I'm not trying to support Darcy in any way, shape or form.  Just keeping the argument complete.)

Also assuming they don't wind up with any additional 1st round picks that find their way into the lottery.  Any pick they acquire is fairly likely to be from a playoff team, but it is still very possible they get the pick from a team who winds up missing the playoffs.

#23 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:08 PM

View Postcarpandean, on 21 October 2013 - 02:58 PM, said:



To be fair, there's a 1.56% chance that they end up with all three #1's, but the mix would never be bad:
1.56% chance of three #1 picks
14.06% chance of two #1 picks and one #2 pick
42.19% chance of one #1 pick and two #2 picks
42.19% chance of three #2 picks

From the sounds of it, the 2015 draft is the one that you really want that #1 in.  25% chance, if they finish dead last next season.

(And, no, I'm not trying to support Darcy in any way, shape or form.  Just keeping the argument complete.)

Fair enough. Even getting top 3 picks....it looks like an arbitrary strike rate on a very good to impact player is about 60%. It just seems like such a loser mentality, to throw your hands in the air and say, "Yeah....we went into free agency, buried guys in the minors and overseas, paid out huge bonuses to our own guys and free agents, received extra compensation from other teams to eat their bad salary, spent up to the cap, put in millions of dollars to improve our scouting department and training and living facilities....but when it comes down to it...we really blow and our only hope is that we get lucky on a few lottery tickets and maybe start to get good 4 years from now."

Thanks for doing the math. I'm researched out for the week.....

#24 LGR4GM

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:23 PM

View PostJsixspd, on 21 October 2013 - 02:55 PM, said:

This has been my concern for some time - everyone seems to focus on the 1st and 2nd rd picks that Regier gets with his trades - and ignore the disturbing fact that Regier will be the one using those picks. I don't have much confidence in his ability to pick well.  

But.... there's a good chance that Pegula is actually making a lot of the picks and Regier is the Yes-Man who implements them for Pegula.   So maybe Pegula will be better than Regier at it?  I think that's the only hope we have of seeing a good Sabres team forming,  since I don't see Pegula getting rid of Regier any time soon.
I have to disagree. I think Darcy is a yes but when it comes to the draft Devine is clearly in charge and calling the shots.

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 03:00 PM, said:

And good post LGR.

That has been the M/O or Regier....reactionary instead of visionary.

Look what has happened this year though. The guys who were awakened last year when Rolston took over were the grit guys with some talent....Ott and Weber were being talked about glowingly. This year Weber has crumbled by trying to do too much early, and I have no idea what Ott is thinking at times. He went from an "untouchable" who was assumed to be resigned, to being talked about in the shipout by people.

If you don't have the culture to start with....it is a much tougher hill to climb. How many games does Girgensons bust his butt off before understanding he is going to abuse his body to finish last? Without proper support, it is like sending soldiers on a suicide mission. Of course there are going to be defectors once they see the artillery and supplies retreat, and the first few waves of guys get massacred. Pride only works so long....you have to believe in what you are fighting for, even if you know you are outmanned.
The issue Darcy is putting those players in the roles they should have.  I love Weber but he is a 5th guy at his best.  He can be solid on the PK but he isnt a top shutdown guy. Darcy and Rolston have made him one though. Ott is a 2/3 liner.  He should be knocking ppl over and dishing pucks from the walls to the center.  Half the time I am not sure what he is doing but he seems to think he has to HIT all the time.  Hits are great but he is going for hitting and physicality over sound hockey and I think the coaches and GM have put such and emphasis on grit it has screwed him all up

#25 Robviously

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:24 PM

View PostDerrico, on 21 October 2013 - 02:40 PM, said:

The top 3 picks in each of those years include

Vinny Lecaviler
David Legwand
Brad Stuart
Patrik Stephan
D Sedin
H Sedin
Rick Dipietro
Danny Heatly
Marion Gaborik
IIya Kovalchuk
Jason Spetza
Alexander Svitov

There were some duds in there but better players come at the top of the draft, on average.
You're a brave man for trying to inject some rational, even-handed thoughts here.

This thread is all about BEING ANGRY! RARRR! LOUD NOISES!!1!

#26 Taro T

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:24 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 01:14 PM, said:

OK....I'm getting sick of this "e the rebuild" stuff.

Ted Black tries to allude to the fact that the Sabres have a solid plan by stockpiling draft picks in the 1st 2 rounds over a period of years....BECAUSE...the Montreal Canadiens did so in the early 70's.

Those draft picks in a vacuum are just fine....however, cementing a losing culture and feeding young players to the wolves in the midst of that losing culture while under the control of the same GM that has cemented that losing culture is about as disgusting as it comes.

Yes...Montreal drafted some really great players with all those draft picks.

Lets look at the FACTS

1)In the 15 seasons prior to those draft picks, MONTREAL HAD WON 9 STANLEY CUPS!!!!

Yes, you read that correctly. While the Buffalo Sabres are pimping a plan as foolproof, the same organization that has visited the finals ONCE in the previous 15 seasons under the current GM who has the team out of the gate to 1 win in 10 games, the Canadiens were TRULY Hockey Heaven. 9 Cups in 15 years.

2)The Canadiens WON the Stanley Cup the year that they started stockpiling those high draft picks. Yes....you read that correctly. While Ted will tell you that those picks were being stockpiled, what he doesn't tell you is that they were the Stanley Cup Champions as they stockpiled those picks. That's a far cry from zero playoff series wins in 7 years and missing the playoffs while being at or near the league lead in player spending, then starting a season 1-8-1.

Montreal ALSO won the Cup in 1973

3)There were 14 teams in the league in 1971 and 18 in 1975. As those picks were being made...WHILE winning a Cup, there were half as many teams, thus making the impact of the talent at those picks twice as likely to be top level, if we are to subscribe to the numbers others have posted here about the draft slot and NHL impact.

Of those 21 picks.....19 of them would be 1st round picks in the current draft. 9 picks were in the top 10 of the draft. Again...winning Stanley Cups in 1971 and 1973 as this process was happening.


It just disgusts me that this is the support for the "plan" the Sabres seem to be selling.


And you know what? This has Darcy written all over it. I'm willing to wager Mr. Black a dinner that Darcy was the one who brought this information to Mr. Pegula and himself. It is the type of disingenuous spreadsheet mining that Darcy has done over the years to deflect failure. Mr. Black doesn't have to answer this, but he will read it, and he will see.

I just felt the need to say this since the discussion is going on in multiple threads.
Couple of other interesting (IMHO) points about Pollock's drafting.

Draft age was 20, so teams knew better what they were drafting.

1970 was the 1st year Moe-ray-all couldn't automatically get the top 2 French draftees.  Good thing Bert and Rico were born in the '50's rather than '49.

Pollock not only stocked up on picks by trading over the hillers, he'd also send decent players to teams he didn't already control the pick of to make sure they didn't finish with a better pick than his.

For all of the similarities of 1971 to 2014, they might as well also have a strategy of owning the best junior team in Canada like teams tried to do in the '50's.

#27 Robviously

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:26 PM

View Postshrader, on 21 October 2013 - 03:07 PM, said:

Also assuming they don't wind up with any additional 1st round picks that find their way into the lottery.  Any pick they acquire is fairly likely to be from a playoff team, but it is still very possible they get the pick from a team who winds up missing the playoffs.
Also sort of implies that not finishing with the no.1 overall pick is a total disaster. The second or third overall pick should really help you too.

#28 Taro T

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:33 PM

View PostRobviously, on 21 October 2013 - 03:26 PM, said:

Also sort of implies that not finishing with the no.1 overall pick is a total disaster. The second or third overall pick should really help you too.
Well, if McDavid does turn into the next Crosby, getting the next Ryan could be viewed as a 'disaster.'

#29 That Aud Smell

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:33 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 03:08 PM, said:

" ... but when it comes down to it...we really blow and our only hope is that we get lucky on a few lottery tickets and maybe start to get good 4 years from now."

this really got me laughing.

#30 dudacek

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:36 PM

How do you get elite players:
1) trades if you are lucky (see Zdeno Chara and Cam Neely)
2) late rounds picks if you are lucky (see Red Wings, Detroit)
3) free agents, if you want to overpay for an established star, and can convince him to come here, knowing full well his best years are behind him.
4) picking at the top end of the draft.

Its been 20 years since we got lucky with Hasek.
It's been a generation since we tried option four, which is clearly not perfect, but just as clearly the most effective option.
I'm OK with trying that the next two years.
I just hope that right after he shakes Sam Reinhart's hand, Darcy gets the boot and the task of getting Connor McDavid and surrounding him with the right people is given to somebody new.

#31 Derrico

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:40 PM

View PostThat Aud Smell, on 21 October 2013 - 03:07 PM, said:

Good stuff - thanks. I'm trying to group those guys, based on what I can recall and readily find via hockeydb and such. I think it's a 75% rate of success (9 of 12), with 7 of 12 being top-end players for a long period of time.

Great/Elite
Vinny Lecaviler
D Sedin
H Sedin
Danny Heatly
Marion Gaborik
IIya Kovalchuk
Jason Spetza

Solid Top-6 Forward/Top 4 D-Man
David Legwand
Brad Stuart

Decent/Marginal NHL Player
Patrik Stephan
Rick Dipietro

Bust
Alexander Svitov

Ya you're probably looking at about a 50%  chance of having a star player for hopefully the next decade and a 75% chance of having atleast a good NHLer.  I'm not saying this tank job is or is not the best course of action, I'm just saying if and a big if they do suck big time for the next three years then this team should add some good/great players to the new core.  Of course there are several alternatives to the tank job but this is the one that has obviously been chosen.  The key is now to stick with it.  I don't want any moves out of desperation that gives them the 6th or 7th pick instead of the top 3.

Cheering against them is no fun but I would be very happy with a 12 win season.

Edited by Derrico, 21 October 2013 - 03:43 PM.


#32 Icehole

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:43 PM

Ted is a mouth piece searching for straws and like any mouth piece that is still learning his product, he is prone to gaffs when the guys that are supposedly in this case "hockey knowledgeabe" are imbeciles.  Ted can only do so much with the hand he is dealt.... Darcy.  Which is why he describes a model, he is looking to put the best foot forward even when it doesn't fit the situation.

Ted is not the problem,  Darcy is.

#33 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 03:56 PM

View PostNorth Buffalo, on 21 October 2013 - 03:43 PM, said:

Ted is a mouth piece searching for straws and like any mouth piece that is still learning his product, he is prone to gaffs when the guys that are supposedly in this case "hockey knowledgeabe" are imbeciles.  Ted can only do so much with the hand he is dealt.... Darcy.  Which is why he describes a model, he is looking to put the best foot forward even when it doesn't fit the situation.

Ted is not the problem,  Darcy is.

That's what I'm trying to say....

Who do you think brought forward the 1970's Habs? I bet it wasn't Ted.

View PostTaro T, on 21 October 2013 - 03:24 PM, said:


For all of the similarities of 1971 to 2014, they might as well also have a strategy of owning the best junior team in Canada like teams tried to do in the '50's.

They already do!

#34 Taro T

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 04:08 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 21 October 2013 - 03:56 PM, said:

That's what I'm trying to say....

Who do you think brought forward the 1970's Habs? I bet it wasn't Ted.



They already do!
:lol:

#35 weave

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 04:16 PM

Who is this Jason Spetza guy that was a top pick?  And does he like his pitza NY style or Chicago style?

#36 Yuri Olesha

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 05:51 PM

Pardon my ignorance, but is it against NHL rules to tank a season on purpose.  Maybe the pertinent question is if it could be considered match fixing.
If we were to trade Vanek and Miller, would the Sabres be at greater risk of being accused of tanking on purpose, or match fixing?
Are we keeping Vanek and Miller to avoid this accusation?  Inquiring minds want to know.
Also, when Ted Black says that he is a recovering lawyer, what does he mean by that?

#37 SwampD

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 06:29 PM

View PostYuri Olesha, on 21 October 2013 - 05:51 PM, said:

Pardon my ignorance, but is it against NHL rules to tank a season on purpose.  Maybe the pertinent question is if it could be considered match fixing.
If we were to trade Vanek and Miller, would the Sabres be at greater risk of being accused of tanking on purpose, or match fixing?
Are we keeping Vanek and Miller to avoid this accusation?  Inquiring minds want to know.
Also, when Ted Black says that he is a recovering lawyer, what does he mean by that?
I honestly have been thinking about this. I don't know and they really need to shut up and at least pretend they are trying to win this year.

Edited by SwampD, 21 October 2013 - 06:29 PM.


#38 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 06:38 PM

View PostSwampD, on 21 October 2013 - 06:29 PM, said:


I honestly have been thinking about this. I don't know and they really need to shut up and at least pretend they are trying to win this year.

Good point....

If someone came out after a horserace and said..."Yeah....we had no intention of trying to win this race. I told the jock to choke up on him the whole way around so he'd eventually give up and spit the bit. We want to do it for a few more races so by the time he's cranked up to win, the public will ignore him and we can bet him at 60-1".....

I would GO TO JAIL!!!!!!!

#39 JJFIVEOH

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 06:55 PM

Did I miss some sort of press conference or interview?

#40 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 07:10 PM

View PostJJFIVEOH, on 21 October 2013 - 06:55 PM, said:

Did I miss some sort of press conference or interview?

I think there was one where the owner said "The sole reason for existence of the Buffalo Sabres is to win multiple Stanley Cups....and we plan on doing it within 3 years".

In all honesty, I have a tendency to consume copious amounts of alcoholic beverages from time to time....so I could have imagined it.....