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8th seed or top 5 pick?


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#1 sicknfla

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 02:39 PM

I do not know how to start a poll but here is another scenario. We play decent all year and manage to get into the playoffs. Proceed to get knocked out in first round. If we had a hockey crystal ball would you rather go into the season knowing you were getting knocked out in the first round or that you would end up with top 5 pick?



#2 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 02:43 PM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 September 2013 - 02:39 PM, said:

I do not know how to start a poll but here is another scenario. We play decent all year and manage to get into the playoffs. Proceed to get knocked out in first round. If we had a hockey crystal ball would you rather go into the season knowing you were getting knocked out in the first round or that you would end up with top 5 pick?
Hold up, top 5 pick or the 5th pick?  There is a hell of a lot of difference this draft btw 1 and 5.  If I can guarantee I get #1 overall then yes. If its something in there is only a 20% in this scenario, I'll take 1 round of playoffs.

#3 sicknfla

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 02:50 PM

Anywhere in top 5. The Crystal hockey puck will not guarantee me the #1.

Edited by sicknfla, 18 September 2013 - 02:51 PM.


#4 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 03:02 PM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 September 2013 - 02:50 PM, said:

Anywhere in top 5. The Crystal hockey puck will not guarantee me the #1.
Then my answer is no.  Not in this draft.  I would rather take the year of playoff experience.

#5 Derrico

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 03:12 PM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 September 2013 - 02:39 PM, said:

I do not know how to start a poll but here is another scenario. We play decent all year and manage to get into the playoffs. Proceed to get knocked out in first round. If we had a hockey crystal ball would you rather go into the season knowing you were getting knocked out in the first round or that you would end up with top 5 pick?

This is an interesting question.  I really hate cheering against the Sabres but I would say top 5 pick.  Part of the reason is that if we're going to likely make the playoffs then I don't think Darcy trades Vanek or Miller at the deadline and if we're hovering around just sneaking into the playoffs then I don't think Vanek would want to resign.  This scenario is why Darcy should have put on his big boy pants and traded Miller/Vanek over the summer!!

#6 Loyalty

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 03:14 PM

Top 5 pick. Add another great player to this crop of kids.

#7 waldo

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 03:37 PM

The gm will be looking for  a couple of established 3-4 mil NHL level skilled guys (to put us over the top) before the end of the year to  make a playoff run...lol

Edited by waldo, 18 September 2013 - 03:38 PM.


#8 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 03:44 PM

I'd lean top-5 pick, but I honestly don't know enough about this draft class to be certain. If an 8 seed would guarantee Vanek sticks around, then it's another story.

#9 MattPie

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 03:47 PM

View PostVanek-Man, on 18 September 2013 - 03:14 PM, said:

Top 5 pick. Add another great player to this crop of kids.

I think LGR is suggesting, as most of the scouting reports say, that this draft has maybe 1-2 "can't miss" prospects. Not all drafts are equal. This year's draft (and 2003), for instance, had lots of quality pics. I.E., #4 in 2014 is like #14 or #24 in 2013. Not at all a lock to be in the NHL.

#10 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 03:54 PM

View PostMattPie, on 18 September 2013 - 03:47 PM, said:

I think LGR is suggesting, as most of the scouting reports say, that this draft has maybe 1-2 "can't miss" prospects. Not all drafts are equal. This year's draft (and 2003), for instance, had lots of quality pics. I.E., #4 in 2014 is like #14 or #24 in 2013. Not at all a lock to be in the NHL.
Yup. This past draft, YES. This draft coming up, I'll take the playoffs if it were guaranteed.

So for instance, Ristolainen was the 8th pick this year.  If he were to be a year younger he would honestly be in the top 3/4 discussion for the 2014 draft.  It is a weak draft.

#11 dudacek

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 04:03 PM

No Mckinnon or Drouin in this draft.
Plus, if we make the playoffs this year it will be because our young guys have stepped up and we are on an upward curve.
So definitely playoffs please.

#12 sicknfla

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 04:18 PM

The reason I asked this question goes a lot deeper than it looks. After more responses I will explain.

#13 MattPie

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 05:27 PM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 September 2013 - 04:18 PM, said:

The reason I asked this question goes a lot deeper than it looks. After more responses I will explain.

Why? Put your cards on the table.

#14 Spndnchz

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:22 PM

more responses.






explain.

#15 thesportsbuff

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:23 PM

the age old question

#16 Icehole

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 06:33 PM

I am not sure thought I agree generally the next draft is supposed to be weaker according to reports, so I would be inclined to get the young kids some experience.  If it was a top 3, I would say go for it. Not top 5.

But check out the latest information on the 2014 draft from http://forums.sabres...006-2014-draft/

I think the jury is still out though on top 5.  There appears to be some talent.  Not an easy question to answer.  Especially read the center evals, the Sabres weakness.... P.S. a talented centerman can always be turned into a wing, not vice versa so much.

#17 Loyalty

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:06 PM

View PostMattPie, on 18 September 2013 - 03:47 PM, said:

I think LGR is suggesting, as most of the scouting reports say, that this draft has maybe 1-2 "can't miss" prospects. Not all drafts are equal. This year's draft (and 2003), for instance, had lots of quality pics. I.E., #4 in 2014 is like #14 or #24 in 2013. Not at all a lock to be in the NHL.

Sorry, i apologize. I always read the word for word, today i was just getting ready to leave work, clicked on this forum, saw the thread and posted without reading anything. haha

Lesson learned.

#18 Derrico

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:16 PM

Lets keep in mind that a year in juniors can make a huge difference.  Although there are no consensus top flight picks projected as of yet, that could change over the course of the year.

#19 wjag

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:26 PM

playoffs...always ... another year out of the playoffs is well ... er... another year out of the playoffs..  Been there, done that.

#20 Eleven

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:45 PM

Gimme playoffs.

PS:  We're talking 2015 here, right?  Because playoffs this year is just...funny.

Edited by Eleven, 18 September 2013 - 07:46 PM.


#21 stenbaro

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:46 PM

Someone should just pin this thread as permanent..We go through this every year, although usually not till after the season starts...LOL...Would save the thoughts of many as they just get reposted every year anyways

#22 Eleven

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 07:51 PM

View Poststenbaro, on 18 September 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

Someone should just pin this thread as permanent..We go through this every year, although usually not till after the season starts...LOL...Would save the thoughts of many as they just get reposted every year anyways

It's never been so obvious that the team is going through a long rebuild.

Edited by Eleven, 18 September 2013 - 07:55 PM.


#23 sicknfla

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 08:06 PM

My point in asking this questions was for two reasons. One most of us are ok with the rebuild idea in May. Come September we want a respectable hockey team. That is not too much to ask for.

Second and this is a little more important is what has transpired since the trade deadline has set this team back 2 years. Not moving Vanek/Miller prior to this past draft was huge. Any picks we get for them now will be less valued 2014 picks or 2015 picks. Either way that was another example of how inept DR is.

To go into this season with arguably your two best players in their final year is something that would only happen in Buffalo. How can this happen? How can you roll the dice like that? Their trade value is gone - as is any chance to resign them unless you grossly overpay.

The picks and prospects from these two have us competing in 2014. Instead, we now burn this year and hope that the players we get from them are ready by 2015 at the earliest.

Like I said from the start. Most of us want to compete. To put a competitive team on the ice this year was a couple moves away. Instead, we spend the rest of the season waiting to take two steps back and one step forward - AGAIN!!

#24 thesportsbuff

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 08:11 PM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 September 2013 - 08:06 PM, said:

To go into this season with arguably your two best players in their final year is something that would only happen in Buffalo.

As of today, the Sedins are both scheduled to become UFAs next summer.

#25 Derrico

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 08:23 PM

Wasn't perry and getslaf also in the last year of both their deals last year? It was also a mistake IMO but its not like they're the first team to ever do this

#26 sicknfla

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 08:35 PM

View PostDerrico, on 18 September 2013 - 08:23 PM, said:

Wasn't perry and getslaf also in the last year of both their deals last year? It was also a mistake IMO but its not like they're the first team to ever do this

And they paid for it.

View Postthesportsbuff, on 18 September 2013 - 08:11 PM, said:



As of today, the Sedins are both scheduled to become UFAs next summer.

True but I think we can agree thats a unique situation.

#27 Derrico

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 08:37 PM

If we paid these two in the offseason or near the deadline were still going to pay for it big time.

#28 Robviously

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 09:32 PM

9th Overall.

#Blueprint

#29 dudacek

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 09:35 PM

Henrik Lundquist is in his last year.
Marian Gaborik. Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel, Marty Brodeur...

There's more:
http://www.capgeek.c...-1&fa_type_id=2

#30 sicknfla

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 09:54 PM

View Postdudacek, on 18 September 2013 - 09:35 PM, said:

Henrik Lundquist is in his last year.
Marian Gaborik. Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel, Marty Brodeur...
There's more:
http://www.capgeek.c...-1&fa_type_id=2

Are any of these teams "rebuilding"? Have any of these players told management they wanted no part of a rebuild. I don't think so. Gaborik was traded at the last deadline btw. Kessels off season home is 5 minutes from me. His next team is Tampa - mark that down right now. Lundquist can sign with NY for 2 million less per season and still make more playing in NY. Brodeur is retiring.

Every situation is different. I am discussing our situation. When you announce to the world you are rebuilding then you laid your cards on the table. Sitting around with your thumb in your ass makes you look like a bigger idiot than we already thought you were. Can you imagine being Miller or Vaneks agent? Every day that goes by my price goes up and I just keep mentioning Drury/Briere.

If I am another teams GM and DR calls to make a trade I simply say this is what I am giving you. If you don't like it I will just sign him July 1. Then I would mention Drury/Briere for good measure.

#31 bunomatic

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 10:39 PM

Playoffs. These guys are going to need to take their lumps and get the much needed experience as a group and grow together. You can't gain anything from playing golf except a better handicap

#32 Spndnchz

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 10:59 PM

View Postthesportsbuff, on 18 September 2013 - 08:11 PM, said:



As of today, the Sedins are both scheduled to become UFAs next summer.

What are they? Like 50 years old?

#33 thesportsbuff

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 12:05 AM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 September 2013 - 09:54 PM, said:

Are any of these teams "rebuilding"? Have any of these players told management they wanted no part of a rebuild. I don't think so. Gaborik was traded at the last deadline btw. Kessels off season home is 5 minutes from me. His next team is Tampa - mark that down right now. Lundquist can sign with NY for 2 million less per season and still make more playing in NY. Brodeur is retiring.

Every situation is different. I am discussing our situation. When you announce to the world you are rebuilding then you laid your cards on the table. Sitting around with your thumb in your ass makes you look like a bigger idiot than we already thought you were. Can you imagine being Miller or Vaneks agent? Every day that goes by my price goes up and I just keep mentioning Drury/Briere.

If I am another teams GM and DR calls to make a trade I simply say this is what I am giving you. If you don't like it I will just sign him July 1. Then I would mention Drury/Briere for good measure.

I understand your concern, I'll be pretty peeved too if both walk on July 1st and sign elsewhere. But I'm not sure the situation as dire as you think -- I don't put in any stock into what the media says a player said. I mean obviously no player, especially a star player like Vanek or Miller, "wants" to be part of a long rebuild... but who says this has to be a long rebuild? That doesn't necessarily mean either wants out, unless the plan is a 5-year rebuild (hint: it's not). And the fact that Vanek came out last week and felt the need to clarify that he never asked for a trade is enough to tell me the media is spinning the story their own way. Remember last season (or was it the one before? I really can't remember haha) when the reporters went to Miller and terribly misquoted/out-of-contexted something Kaleta said, provoking a heated response from Miller? And then they ran with it, until Miller heard what Kaleta had actually said and was like, "wtf."

The NHL, rumor sites, The Buffalo News, etc... all these outlets benefit from people thinking Miller and Vanek want a trade ASAP because they get people coming back to their websites every day to see if anything has transpired. Until I hear it from the players themselves, I'm not so certain I believe that either player "wants" out... it's easy to have your words twisted when you're trying to give the politically correct answer. "I don't want to play through a long rebuild" isn't the same as "Get me out of here!"

It's probably just the optimist in me but I don't see any reason the Sabres can't re-sign one, if not both, of their star players if things go well this season.

Here's a tidbit from CBS Sports today: http://www.cbssports...omas-vanek-deal

Elliotte Friedman tweeted, "Hearing BUF has told teams it is willing keep some of Thomas Vanek's salary -- providing Sabres get a deal they like."

Now, don't get me wrong, Friedman is very well respected and not a "rumor monger".. but I mean, isn't that obvious? Teams can't even sign free agents they want right now because of cap space issues.. it'd be extremely hard to fit Vanek's cap hit on most teams with assets to trade. And being that there's only 1 year remaining on his contract anyway, why wouldn't you keep salary if it sweetens the return? Again.. not exactly breaking news... just more "rumors" to keep the fish biting.

#34 Bullwinkle III

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 03:08 AM

I would take a top 5 pick any time.

To have a shot at Reinhart in 2014 and McDavid (The Franchise) in 2015, is worth anything less than The Cup.

#35 TheMatrix31

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 03:12 AM

Playoffs any day.

You play to win. You can't win unless you're not in. It's hockey, not basketball. Get hot at the right time and you can go deep or even win it all.

You can't foster a winning culture by actively promoting a losing one.

Edited by TheMatrix31, 19 September 2013 - 03:12 AM.


#36 nucci

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 04:20 AM

Let me ask this....if the playoffs start tomorrow and the Sabres are in....are you excited or would you prefer a high draft pick? The Sabres have enough high draft choices on the roster. Life is too short. I want playoffs.

View PostBullwinkle III, on 19 September 2013 - 03:08 AM, said:

I would take a top 5 pick any time.

To have a shot at Reinhart in 2014 and McDavid (The Franchise) in 2015, is worth anything less than The Cup.
Really? Anytime? So you would sit through the next 5 years with a losing team and no playoffs just to get top 5 picks? Ridiculous.

#37 Corp000085

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 05:03 AM

You have a choice between this :



and this:



Tough choice...

#38 That Aud Smell

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 07:41 AM

View PostCorp000085, on 19 September 2013 - 05:03 AM, said:

You have a choice between this :

Tough choice...

well played, corp.

also, this guy.

Attached File  flamestable.png   1.08MB   14 downloads

#39 nucci

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 07:45 AM

Stanley Cup or 1st overall pick?

#40 LGR4GM

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Posted 19 September 2013 - 07:46 AM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 September 2013 - 08:06 PM, said:

My point in asking this questions was for two reasons. One most of us are ok with the rebuild idea in May. Come September we want a respectable hockey team. That is not too much to ask for.

Second and this is a little more important is what has transpired since the trade deadline has set this team back 2 years. Not moving Vanek/Miller prior to this past draft was huge. Any picks we get for them now will be less valued 2014 picks or 2015 picks. Either way that was another example of how inept DR is.

To go into this season with arguably your two best players in their final year is something that would only happen in Buffalo. How can this happen? How can you roll the dice like that? Their trade value is gone - as is any chance to resign them unless you grossly overpay.

The picks and prospects from these two have us competing in 2014. Instead, we now burn this year and hope that the players we get from them are ready by 2015 at the earliest.

Like I said from the start. Most of us want to compete. To put a competitive team on the ice this year was a couple moves away. Instead, we spend the rest of the season waiting to take two steps back and one step forward - AGAIN!!
Since I was beating the tank drum last season I have 2 things to say based on the bold sentences.

1) You assume there was a deal in place that Darcy passed on that would have netted us 1st round 2013 draft pick/s for Miller and or Vanek.  Now Miller maybe you could argue was worth just the pick but where in the 1st round?  The only team that was ranked above us that was even hinted at wanting to trade was Carolina at #5.  They wouldn't have interest in Miller.

So what about Vanek?  Thomas Vanek is and was worth more than simply a 1st round pick even in this past draft.  Similar to Jason Pominville, Vanek has to return more than just a pick.  Outside of the top 10ish guys the draft becomes more and more of a crap shoot.  So even if you could get #5 from Carolina for Vanek (which I don't think you would have) or #6 Calgary (possible) what else would you be getting?  It goes deeper than just a first round pick.  2013 first rounders were worth more by evidence of the lack of trading that occurred at the draft.

Bluntly stating that Darcy Regier has now set the team back 2 years because he didn't trade Miller AND Vanek is an unsubstantiated claim.  What if they resign?  What if he trades them this season for X,Y, or Z and that return would be better.  That draft did not occur in a vacuum. Also the 2015 draft is still almost 2 full years away, no one knows what that will look like yet.

2) Everything in the second bold statement is inaccurate.  A ton of teams have UFA's with big names on expiring deals.  http://www.capgeek.c...-1&fa_type_id=2 Take a look at capgeek. SJ has Thorton and Marleua as expiring UFA's.  You could argue that they aren't in a rebuild and that might be true.  But you can't sell off every single guy you have in a rebuild you need to keep star players.  Darcy is taking a gamble with Vanek, that is obvious to me but he has to take it.  The guy is something like 10th in goals scored over the last 7 years.

Their trade value is not gone.  This statement is flat out false.  UFA's with expiring deals get traded at the deadline every single year.  Jerome Iginla was traded just last season for a bunch of stuff.  This is perhaps the biggest false narrative that pervades this board outside of the bizarre belief we have smaller forwards than anyone else.

Final point is the overpay to resign.  If they hit UFA they will be overpaid.  If they stay they will be paid what they are worth plus some extra for being our best guys. Personally I think Miller is out.  We have enough GT talent to move on from him. As for Vanek, a long term high money deal keeps him here.  In 2007 we overpaid for him and by now he is worth every penny.  Guys who are good and on expiring deals get big bucks and get a little overpaid.  However that is all relative to the cap. Grossly overpaying?  I don't see that as the case. Either they want to stay or they do not and considering the UFA market grossly overpays I don't think you can you can make this argument.


In summary, I disagree with the conclusions you are trying to draw on all the bold points. You can't predict into the future 2 years to know if we are set back or right where we need to be.  Maybe past this trade deadline you could make some of these arguments if Vanek and Miller are still here and they don't get resigned, walking away for nothing.  As for right now you can't say most of this. I think trying to bate us with the question and then turning it into a "Why didn't Darcy trade Miller and Vanek?" conversation is also highly questionable.  I am not a darcy fan but this is a deliberate attempt to railroad the decisions made this offseason before we know the full impact of those decisions.  Finally, outside of Drury and Briere in 2007 what top players have the Sabres let go for nothing? The correct answer is none.  Fear mongering and nothing more.