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Is the new core already here?

prospects future suffering

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Poll: Is the new core already here?

This is a public poll. Other members will be able to see which options you chose

Within three years, how many of these players do you expect will be capable of being a legitimate contributor on a Stanley Cup contending team

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Within three years, how many of these players do you expect to be an impact player on a Stanley Cup contending team?

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#1 dudacek

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 09:56 PM

The mantra from Darcy is simple: build and nurture a new young core, even if it means some suffering.
Most in the Aud Club are OK with the concept. The debate is about how long it's going to take to be a Stanley Cup contender.

My question here is how many core pieces do people think are already in the organization?

The two polls above list 15 Sabre assets.
The first asks how many of these do you to project into a top six forward/top three defenceman/starting goalie on a Stanley Cup contending team within three years?
The second asks how many you predict should become a leader on a Stanley Cup contending team within three years?

I hope the results give us a good indication of what forum members really think of our pool of young talent.

Edited by dudacek, 30 July 2013 - 10:01 PM.


#2 Spndnchz

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 10:44 PM

7

#3 nfreeman

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 11:25 PM

Conceptually this is an interesting question but I think it is really asking how confident the respondent is about the Sabres' ability to draft and develop young players -- i.e. it's more about the development system than about the individual players, because no one here has seen any of the following guys play any meaningful NHL games:

Grigorenko
Girgensons
Armia
Larsson
Pysyk
McCabe
Hackett
2014 1st rounder
Return for Vanek
Return for Miller


...so opining about how good, say, Armia is going to be can't really be anything more than throwing darts.

Having said that, I think Hodgson, Ennis, Foligno and Myers are long-term core assets.

#4 dudacek

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 11:56 PM

View Postnfreeman, on 30 July 2013 - 11:25 PM, said:

Conceptually this is an interesting question but I think it is really asking how confident the respondent is about the Sabres' ability to draft and develop young players -


That's pretty much exactly what it is asking, with the added element of what they know of each prospect.
And I'd like to get those views on record.

#5 sizzlemeister

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 12:00 AM

View Postnfreeman, on 30 July 2013 - 11:25 PM, said:

Having said that, I think Hodgson, Ennis, Foligno and Myers are long-term core assets.

I put my votes in already, but it didn't occur to me until now to suggest that we may want to consider adding reasons for each pick. We should agree not to argue (much) over the reasons, however.

The idea is from your list, nfreeman; I'm curious why you chose the kids you did (except Ennis, maybe, because he is a pick of mine as well).  



#6 dudacek

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 01:41 AM

I'm convinced Foligno will be our Lucic and Girgensons our Bergeron.
And when all is said and done, Myers will be a cornerstone on defence.

Hodgson and Ennis are top six already and should get better; neither has played 200 NHL games yet.
That said, they peak at Krecji-level; neither will be elite players.

Johan Larsson and Mark Pysyk will be useful NHL players in the near future.

I'm hopeful but skeptical on Girgorenko and Armia. Both may put up points, but I'm not sure either has the right stuff.
Doubt McNabb will be a top-four and McCabe is five years away.

The 2014 first won't be as high as most of you hope, and the return on Miller will be a roll of the dice.
But I will be surprised and disappointed if we don't get a future top six player for Vanek.
Neither Hackett, nor Enroth will be anything above OK.

And Kassian will be proof that a beast without focus will never consistently deliver on his promise.

#7 weave

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 06:09 AM

Out of that list of forwards Hodgson, Ennis, and Armia are the only ones I see that shout top 6 core to me. Grigorenko is in question right now but is obviously hoped to be among them as well.  And after last seasons AHL playoffs I think Girgensens may have a shot at 2nd line status, but my expectations are he'll be a 3rd line guy.

I am much more confident of the D men listed being solid contributors.  Too soon to say which ones are likely top 3 material.

#8 Lanny

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 06:35 AM

Ristolainen and Zadorov

#9 SwampD

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 07:42 AM

View PostLanny, on 31 July 2013 - 06:35 AM, said:

Ristolainen and Zadorov
None, unless they are traded. :devil:

#10 sicknfla

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 08:14 AM

Maybe 3 of your top 6 come from this group. I dont recall many Cup contending teams having a top 6 of everyone being under 23 years old. They will have to find,IMO, a true #1 center. I don't think there is one in this group. Maybe half your defense comes from this group. None of our goalies are going to win us a cup.

We have a LONG ways to go.

I think we may bottom out a year too soon. I truly believe this team is in line for the #1 pick next year. I dont think we will be as bad next year - which will make us miss out on McDavid. Don't even suggest that we could always trade into #1 for him. Nobody is trading that pick.

Edited by sicknfla, 31 July 2013 - 08:18 AM.


#11 Sabre Dance

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 08:16 AM

It's very tough right now to foresee any of these players being the "new core", not because they don't have talent but because most of them have little-to-no NHL experience. We'll have to see how they play this year (and likely next as well) before we'll be able to tell.

That being said, I honestly don't see Tyler Myers as a "stalwart" or "cornerstone" on defense.  Even if he plays better than he did last year (and is in better shape), I just don't think he has the kind of heart or "gumption" to haul the team up on his back and carry them deep into the playoffs.  The best case scenario is to have him play well this year and then trade him for a vet or two and some picks. Of course, with DR piloting the ship, they will give Myers until the end of his current contract to try to return to Calder Trophy form and then wonder what went wrong when he doesn't.  The only thing worse than having a promising young player not pan out is to wait way too long to realize it and wind up with nothing to show.  Past experience has shown that this is the Sabres' standard modus operandi and nothing that has transpired since the ownership change indicates otherwise to me. I hope to God I am wrong...

#12 PASabreFan

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 08:23 AM

None.

Losers do long rebuilds. Franchises trying to bamboozle the fans do long rebuilds. The chance of it working is slim to none.

None.

Edited by PASabreFan, 31 July 2013 - 08:23 AM.


#13 LGR4GM

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 08:40 AM

View Postdudacek, on 31 July 2013 - 01:41 AM, said:

I'm hopeful but skeptical on Girgorenko and Armia. Both may put up points, but I'm not sure either has the right stuff.
Doubt McNabb will be a top-four and McCabe is five years away.
I am nitpicking because I agree with most of what you say... McNabb I agree with you on but the McCabe timeline is far to long.  McCabe will play this year in college no doubt.  Next year I expect to see him in the AHL and I think with his attitude and skill set he could even be a call up.  In the 3years the kid makes the team.  McCabe consistently shows his leadership and adaptability.  5yrs is 2years to long IMPO.

#14 sicknfla

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 09:24 AM

View PostPASabreFan, on 31 July 2013 - 08:23 AM, said:

None.

Losers do long rebuilds. Franchises trying to bamboozle the fans do long rebuilds. The chance of it working is slim to none.

None.

A little harsh but, unfortunately, I agree with you. This rebuild has a far better chance ending up as a press conference announcing a DR firing than it does with a downtown parade.

#15 DeLuca1967

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 09:28 AM

View Postdudacek, on 31 July 2013 - 01:41 AM, said:

I'm convinced Foligno will be our Lucic and Girgensons our Bergeron.
And when all is said and done, Myers will be a cornerstone on defence.

Hodgson and Ennis are top six already and should get better; neither has played 200 NHL games yet.
That said, they peak at Krecji-level; neither will be elite players.

Johan Larsson and Mark Pysyk will be useful NHL players in the near future.

I'm hopeful but skeptical on Girgorenko and Armia. Both may put up points, but I'm not sure either has the right stuff.
Doubt McNabb will be a top-four and McCabe is five years away.

The 2014 first won't be as high as most of you hope, and the return on Miller will be a roll of the dice.
But I will be surprised and disappointed if we don't get a future top six player for Vanek.
Neither Hackett, nor Enroth will be anything above OK.

And Kassian will be proof that a beast without focus will never consistently deliver on his promise.
It's always funny when posters do so drunk. :beer:

#16 Claude_Verret

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 09:33 AM

View PostPASabreFan, on 31 July 2013 - 08:23 AM, said:

None.

Losers do long rebuilds. Franchises trying to bamboozle the fans do long rebuilds. The chance of it working is slim to none.

None.

Not sure if you're being serious or just trying to rankle, but if the future is truly that bleak in your view, why bother anymore?

That's where I am with the Bills, hopeless, and I don't really spend any time following them these days.

#17 d4rksabre

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 09:37 AM

Interesting that only two players are registering any support in the poll. For the record, I only see Hodgson and Girgensons as contributors/impact players as well (at the moment). This is due largely to the fact that we just haven't seen enough from a lot of the listed players to form any conclusions. Too many question marks.

For the record, I don't think Ennis is an impact player. He's talented sure, but he's severely undersized, and unless you can put some more talented players with him to open up space he'll continue to get ragdolled by every defenseman in the league. Foligno and Stafford are some pretty weak support. Ennis with Girgensons might be a lot of fun.

#18 PASabreFan

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 10:45 AM

View PostClaude_Verret, on 31 July 2013 - 09:33 AM, said:

Not sure if you're being serious or just trying to rankle, but if the future is truly that bleak in your view, why bother anymore?

That's where I am with the Bills, hopeless, and I don't really spend any time following them these days.

The future generally isn't bleak. I'll always be hopeful they're going to get it right one of these days. But with the current setup of Pegula-Regier-Accounting Firm of Benson/Sawyer, I am not hopeful right now. Add in the idea of these guys "rebuilding" and it's very bleak. Not ready to go all Bills on them, but I might be one home game in Hamilton away.

#19 Claude_Verret

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 10:59 AM

View PostPASabreFan, on 31 July 2013 - 10:45 AM, said:

The future generally isn't bleak. I'll always be hopeful they're going to get it right one of these days. But with the current setup of Pegula-Regier-Accounting Firm of Benson/Sawyer, I am not hopeful right now. Add in the idea of these guys "rebuilding" and it's very bleak. Not ready to go all Bills on them, but I might be one home game in Hamilton away.

Fair enough.  I still have a few dozen kicks to the nuts left in me for the Sabres before they sink to the Bills level.

#20 dudacek

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 11:16 AM

View Postdeluca67, on 31 July 2013 - 09:28 AM, said:


It's always funny when posters do so drunk. :beer:

Hey look! Deluca agrees with me!

#21 LGR4GM

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 11:32 AM

Cody Hodgson is a top 6 forward.

#22 DeLuca1967

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 11:51 AM

View PostLGR4GM, on 31 July 2013 - 11:32 AM, said:

Cody Hodgson is a top 6 forward.
Here, your dropped this, ?.

#23 LGR4GM

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 11:52 AM

View Postdeluca67, on 31 July 2013 - 11:51 AM, said:

Here, your dropped this, ?.
No, that belongs to you.  My is straight and looks like this !

Edited by LGR4GM, 31 July 2013 - 11:52 AM.


#24 DeLuca1967

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 11:54 AM

View PostLGR4GM, on 31 July 2013 - 11:52 AM, said:

No, that belongs to you.  My is straight and looks like this !
Nice. :clapping:

#25 IKnowPhysics

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 12:02 PM

View PostPASabreFan, on 31 July 2013 - 08:23 AM, said:

None.

Losers do long rebuilds. Franchises trying to bamboozle the fans do long rebuilds. The chance of it working is slim to none.

None.

Posted Image

#26 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 12:09 PM

Like the concept of this.  If every current prospect and young player hits their ceiling, the new core is absolutely here.  But we all know that's not happening; some will flame out entirely, others will be NHL players but won't his their ceiling.  Ultimately I peg 8 as being useful players on a Cup team in the next 3 years, but that doesn't necessarily mean I think they all belong on the same Cup team, if that makes sense.  There's still a distinct deficiency in the impact player department IMO (unless there's a lot of ceiling-hitting, which I find unlikely).

#27 nobody

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 01:06 PM

View PostSwampD, on 31 July 2013 - 07:42 AM, said:

None, unless they are traded. :devil:

Sad but probably true.

#28 DaveSnuggerud

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 02:20 PM

This thread is pretty funny...thanks for the Grumpy Cat pic!

I really like the pedigree of Rolston/Sacco developing young players for USA Hockey. This has potential...my issue is that the entire organization struggles with coddling those who do not perform. The balance between expectation and support is thrown waaay towards accepting poor performance. I see a talented mix of players that will struggle to win in the midst of the intensity of the playoffs unless the organization changes this philosophical imbalance.

#29 That Aud Smell

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 03:52 PM

View PostDaveSnuggerud, on 31 July 2013 - 02:20 PM, said:

This thread is pretty funny...thanks for the Grumpy Cat pic!


Snuggerud is among my favorite obscure Sabres -- for the name alone. And now we get that majestic mullet in your avatar. Very nice.

#30 Claude_Verret

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 03:56 PM

View PostThat Aud Smell, on 31 July 2013 - 03:52 PM, said:

[/size]

Snuggerud is among my favorite obscure Sabres -- for the name alone. And now we get that majestic mullet in your avatar. Very nice.

When I bartended in college, one of the waitresses that I worked with was obsessed with Snuggerud.  She must have had a thing for that big, curly mullet.

#31 PASabreFan

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 04:17 PM

View PostTrueBluePhD, on 31 July 2013 - 12:09 PM, said:

Like the concept of this.  If every current prospect and young player hits their ceiling, the new core is absolutely here.  But we all know that's not happening; some will flame out entirely, others will be NHL players but won't his their ceiling.  Ultimately I peg 8 as being useful players on a Cup team in the next 3 years, but that doesn't necessarily mean I think they all belong on the same Cup team, if that makes sense.  There's still a distinct deficiency in the impact player department IMO (unless there's a lot of ceiling-hitting, which I find unlikely).

It's useful to point out (how's that for a pompous intro?) that Ted Black thinks the Sabres need to have 50% of their first and second round picks in the next four years turn into "impact players." Ain't happenin'.

Edited by PASabreFan, 31 July 2013 - 04:17 PM.


#32 d4rksabre

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 09:15 PM

View PostPASabreFan, on 31 July 2013 - 04:17 PM, said:



It's useful to point out (how's that for a pompous intro?) that Ted Black thinks the Sabres need to have 50% of their first and second round picks in the next four years turn into "impact players." Ain't happenin'.

Nothing wrong with laying it out there. They might not achieve 50% but ideally you want your first and second round players to hit more than miss. I don't think that is unreasonable if you are confident in your scouting department.

I also wonder if there is precedent for teams hitting the 50% mark?

#33 Tankalicious

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 09:18 PM

Anybody voting for the 2014 first rounder, or the return in the trades, is confused. We have NO idea what they will be.

#34 Andrew Amerk

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 01:13 AM

I think my cat has a shot at the 3rd line this year.

#35 weave

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 04:59 AM

View Postd4rksabre, on 31 July 2013 - 09:15 PM, said:

Nothing wrong with laying it out there. They might not achieve 50% but ideally you want your first and second round players to hit more than miss. I don't think that is unreasonable if you are confident in your scouting department.

I also wonder if there is precedent for teams hitting the 50% mark?

I'm not going to hunt down links now but it is usually accepted that about 50% of 1st rounders overall have a decent NHL career.  2nd rounders are more like 25%.  Hitting 50% on 1st and 2nd combined would be success for sure.

#36 CallawaySabres

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 06:12 AM

View PostAndrew Amerk, on 01 August 2013 - 01:13 AM, said:

I think my cat has a shot at the 3rd line this year.

Not a chance, Mr. Snuggs has at least 5 pounds on your cat and his nameplate would be a top 5 seller.

#37 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:26 AM

View Postweave, on 01 August 2013 - 04:59 AM, said:

I'm not going to hunt down links now but it is usually accepted that about 50% of 1st rounders overall have a decent NHL career.  2nd rounders are more like 25%.  Hitting 50% on 1st and 2nd combined would be success for sure.

Right. The other thing with Black's comment, is how does he define an impact player? I think a lot of scouts would describe it as a solid NHL player, whereas a typical fan would describe it as one of the better players at a position. If using the latter definition, those hit rates are even lower.

#38 d4rksabre

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:40 AM

View Postweave, on 01 August 2013 - 04:59 AM, said:

I'm not going to hunt down links now but it is usually accepted that about 50% of 1st rounders overall have a decent NHL career.  2nd rounders are more like 25%.  Hitting 50% on 1st and 2nd combined would be success for sure.

So as suspected his numbers are ambitious. That's not surprising to me from a guy who sets the expectations for the people below him like Darcy and the scouting staff.

#39 Claude_Verret

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:43 AM

View PostTrueBluePhD, on 01 August 2013 - 08:26 AM, said:

Right. The other thing with Black's comment, is how does he define an impact player? I think a lot of scouts would describe it as a solid NHL player, whereas a typical fan would describe it as one of the better players at a position. If using the latter definition, those hit rates are even lower.

That's how I see the definition coming from a team representative. An impact player is someone you draft that is a 3rd line fringe to solid 4th liner and above.  By this definition someone like Kaleta is an impact player, but Matt Ellis is not.

#40 PASabreFan

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:19 AM

Ted said "impact player" in the context of how does the franchise win its first Cup. Kaleta is not the bar.

View Postd4rksabre, on 31 July 2013 - 09:15 PM, said:

Nothing wrong with laying it out there. They might not achieve 50% but ideally you want your first and second round players to hit more than miss. I don't think that is unreasonable if you are confident in your scouting department.

I also wonder if there is precedent for teams hitting the 50% mark?

Why don't you just look at how Regier and Divine have done?