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Regier's Plan: Projecting 3 Years


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#1 LGR4GM

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 09:24 AM

Darcy’s Plan: 3 years from now

Forwards:
With the center of the ice being of crucial importance and Regier finally addressing that with the 2012 draft, the 2013 draft did not focus on centers or even forwards prior to the 2nd round.  There is a reason.  I am attempting to glimpse Darcy’s mind and think like him so here we go.

Cody Hodgson is most likely becomes our 2nd line center.  At only 23yrs old he had a good season points wise last year but was seriously lacking in defense.  This is our #2.  So at this year’s draft did we really need to draft another #2… in Darcy’s mind no.  Now that begs the question who becomes our #1 center.  The answer is Grigorenko.  I will ignore the collective moan from the fan base but this is how Regier is looking at this.  Grigs is the #1 guy a couple years down the road so no pressing need to draft or trade up to try and get a #1 center.  Finally at the #3 center spot we have Johan Larsson. Now before everyone loses their minds, Larsson centered Zemgus once he arrived and I think that is what they expect going forward.

Now we all seem to believe that our wings are extremely weak.  If we project out 3years (barring busts) our RW looks the weakest.  Joel Armia is coming in this year and should be a #1 RW.  Obviously Stafford is not the #2 RW.  So this is where some of this year’s draft comes in.  Compher and Bailey both could fill this spot but that is really hard to say.  So who do I put here?  Well if I am channeling Regier, I hedge my bets and believe either Compher or Bailey will work out.  One of them is a solid 2way guy who can be slotted in there, JT Compher.  See what he did there?  2 guys all RHS that both project out to be good second liners.  That leaves the 3rd line slot which can either go to the loser or to a guy like Brian Flynn who I personally like.  Also

Now we have the crowded LW but again we are projecting 3yrs.  So who is our #1?  Thomas Vanek is of course.   Darcy I believe plans on resigning him so I shall as well.  So that brings us down to #2 LW and the only guy that should be around for that is Ott/Foligno/ Leino… yes seriously #2 is that crowded. Ideally we resign Ott and he becomes our #3 LW and Foligno maxes out as our #2.  Now Leino is an issue because he doesn’t really fit in the end, but he will be traded prior to this I think, unless he blows us all away.  There is so much depth and time for the LW that we should not be worried.  In the Pipeline behind these guys is also Connor Hurley, Daniel Catenacci, AND Zemgus Girgensons.

Forward lines in Darcy’s mind in 3 years…
Vanek – Grigorenko – Armia
Foligno – Hodgson – Compher/Bailey
Girgensons – Larsson – Ott? Compher? Bailey? Flynn?


Moving on to defense, I think Darcy’s mind is now firmly thinking like this…
Tyler Myers will work hard this summer and finally understand what it takes to be a #1 defender and actually succeed in that role. He needs to be in condition and be strong.  Ehrhoff is locked up as your #2 guy and veteran leader.  Mike Weber slots in at #5/6 or could be gone, flexibility.  Now that leaves these guys, McCabe, Ristolainen, McNabb, Zadarov, Pysyk.  I would believe that DR thinks McCabe and Risto will be here relatively soon if not in the upcoming year. Zadarov should be coming in next year (McCabe could be also in this category).  McNabb is a wild card I think and good be a permanent AHL star.  That leaves Pysyk who is a puck mover and should be hear this season.  So if DR mind how does this end up?  Well if I had to guess:

McCabe – Myers
Ehrhoff – Ristolainen
Zadarov – Pysyk
Weber - McNabb

Edited by LGR4GM, 03 July 2013 - 06:14 AM.


#2 PASabreFan

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 10:16 AM

Plan? Darcy says it's based on players getting bigger and the game getting more physical and HOPEFULLY the trend continues. ("We want to be more physical. The game is moving that way right now. Hopefully that will remain consistent when these guys start their NHL careers.”) The plan is reactive, just like everything he does.

#3 sizzlemeister

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 09:57 PM

What happens if they start calling penalties again?  Uh-oh.

#4 DaveSnuggerud

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 10:24 PM

View PostPASabreFan, on 01 July 2013 - 10:16 AM, said:

Plan? Darcy says it's based on players getting bigger and the game getting more physical and HOPEFULLY the trend continues. ("We want to be more physical. The game is moving that way right now. Hopefully that will remain consistent when these guys start their NHL careers.”) The plan is reactive, just like everything he does.

Hey, he was ahead of the curve in 05-06 right?

#5 thesportsbuff

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 11:00 PM

Just throwing it out there, but has anyone considered that maybe Darcy sees CoHo as the #1 center? He's obviously proven his work ethic and dedication through his training with Gary Roberts, and it seems to be paying off based on his performance last year. I expect he'll continue to improve.

Obviously the book is still out on Grigorenko at 19 years old, but I like them both. Wouldn't be surprised if Grigorenko ended up as a 2C.

#6 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 11:07 PM

View Postthesportsbuff, on 01 July 2013 - 11:00 PM, said:

Just throwing it out there, but has anyone considered that maybe Darcy sees CoHo as the #1 center? He's obviously proven his work ethic and dedication through his training with Gary Roberts, and it seems to be paying off based on his performance last year. I expect he'll continue to improve.

Obviously the book is still out on Grigorenko at 19 years old, but I like them both. Wouldn't be surprised if Grigorenko ended up as a 2C.

Certainly possible, but the problem is neither of them play defense.  In general I think any team can only afford to have 1 offense-only center if they hope to go on a deep playoff run.  I have more hope that Hodgson will develop that aspect of his game than Grigs, but he certainly hasn't shown a natural affinity for it.

#7 Andrew Amerk

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 11:16 PM

View PostTrueBluePhD, on 01 July 2013 - 11:07 PM, said:



Certainly possible, but the problem is neither of them play defense.  In general I think any team can only afford to have 1 offense-only center if they hope to go on a deep playoff run.  I have more hope that Hodgson will develop that aspect of his game than Grigs, but he certainly hasn't shown a natural affinity for it.

I think Hodgson will start improving his defense this year.

#8 qwksndmonster

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 11:30 PM

I think that Hodgson and Grigorenko are both capable of becoming #1 centers.  I agree with AA that Hodgson will improve defensively.  The question is more about whether or not his offensive game will keep improving.

#9 Numark

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Posted 01 July 2013 - 11:56 PM

Nice write-up and I do agree with a lot of it.  

PS:  Where is my boy ennis?

#10 Andrew Amerk

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 12:40 AM

View PostNumark, on 01 July 2013 - 11:56 PM, said:

Nice write-up and I do agree with a lot of it.  

PS:  Where is my boy ennis?

Probably on the trade block. He doesn't fit in to DR's new weight class.

#11 thewookie1

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 12:47 AM

I would think about in two years putting Zadarov on the 4th line wing in games where grit is needed in a larger amount seeing as it would free him up to be able to pick fights.

Who are your 4th liners?

#12 HopefulFuture

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 05:48 AM

View PostPASabreFan, on 01 July 2013 - 10:16 AM, said:

Plan? Darcy says it's based on players getting bigger and the game getting more physical and HOPEFULLY the trend continues. ("We want to be more physical. The game is moving that way right now. Hopefully that will remain consistent when these guys start their NHL careers.”) The plan is reactive, just like everything he does.

Exactly correct, to a T.

And to the OP, Vanek won't be here in 3 years for sure. Foligno is not 2nd line talent, not if you want to contend for a cup he's not.
Armia is supposedly getting paired with a Finn to help the boy out. Grigs is not proven line 1 talent.
Although I like the kid, there is no way McCabe becomes a 1/2 D man, more likely a 3 to 5 D man.

#13 DeLuca1967

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 06:37 AM

View Postthesportsbuff, on 01 July 2013 - 11:00 PM, said:

Just throwing it out there, but has anyone considered that maybe Darcy sees CoHo as the #1 center? He's obviously proven his work ethic and dedication through his training with Gary Roberts, and it seems to be paying off based on his performance last year. I expect he'll continue to improve.

Obviously the book is still out on Grigorenko at 19 years old, but I like them both. Wouldn't be surprised if Grigorenko ended up as a 2C.
:lol: This gets me every time. :lol: At least i didn't spit soda on my monitor again.

#14 LGR4GM

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 07:25 AM

View PostHopefulFuture, on 02 July 2013 - 05:48 AM, said:

Exactly correct, to a T.

And to the OP, Vanek won't be here in 3 years for sure. Foligno is not 2nd line talent, not if you want to contend for a cup he's not.
Armia is supposedly getting paired with a Finn to help the boy out. Grigs is not proven line 1 talent.
Although I like the kid, there is no way McCabe becomes a 1/2 D man, more likely a 3 to 5 D man.
They got a Finn for Armia, Ristolainen.  I don't think the intention is he has to play on the same line as another Finn just we need a guy in the system who he can be buddy buddy with.  Kinda like Zadorov and Grigorenko.

Grigs has not proven himself, but again I am not saying he has. I am simply saying Darcy is less worried about a center being #1 or #2 because he sees Grigs as taking one of those spots.

This is how I think Darcy sees the projections in 3 years.  As for the Defensive pairings you can switch the order I wrote them but that is most likely the defense partners.  As for the rest,  Ennis is gone (and I miss him).  Our 4th line consists of a UFA and then 2 guys that have higher potential but don't reach, the work hard on the 4th line but that is about it.

#15 Sabre Dance

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 07:40 AM

View PostLGR4GM, on 01 July 2013 - 09:24 AM, said:

Darcy’s Plan: 3 years from now


Sorry, you lost me at "Darcy's Plan".  I don't think he has one.  I think he is doing as he always has done, drafting the "best player available" (in his mind).  Putting together a winning team is like assembling a 500 piece jigsaw puzzle. Darcy is good at getting all of the border pieces in place but when it comes to filling in the middle, he has failed (often miserably).  I'm going to remain hopeful that I am wrong and this time around he does have some kind of plan (since hope is all I have left for this team). But, I would not be surprised if we are still at this same point two or three years from now wondering why Grigorenko hasn't developed and why Stafford is still on the team.....  Darcy, please prove me wrong!

#16 That Aud Smell

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 08:27 AM

it advances the discussion not at all to say that there's "no plan." mind you, DR's plan may be fluid, even a bit ill-defined, and lacking the sort of vision and judgment that are needed to make a plan work. but there's a plan. it just may be that the plan isn't one of the 8 best plans in the eastern conference.

oh, and to the OP: ott is a LW (he shoots left anyway). we need serious help at RW, IMO.

EDIT: wrt the 4th line question: tropp at worst is a terrific 4th line RW. who centers that line. porter? not sure who projects at LW. #thisdoesnotlooklikeagoodNHLrosterrightnow.

Edited by That Aud Smell, 02 July 2013 - 08:34 AM.


#17 Sabre Dance

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 08:40 AM

View PostThat Aud Smell, on 02 July 2013 - 08:27 AM, said:

it advances the discussion not at all to say that there's "no plan." mind you, DR's plan may be fluid, even a bit ill-defined, and lacking the sort of vision and judgment that are needed to make a plan work. but there's a plan. it just may be that the plan isn't one of the 8 12 best plans in the eastern conference.

OK, I'll concede that point...and I fixed the last line

#18 waldo

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 08:45 AM

It is nice to project x will become a first line center, y will become a 2nd line left winger but all of it is subjecive judgment and even the people who do it for a living will tell you that , it is a crap shoot when you get beyond the phenoms.  They will also tell you players do not develop at the same pace. Right now the Sabres have only a crap shoot. We will know a minimum of five years from now what Darcy has assembled in the draft.  He has to go into the market and use some of his stockpile to bring in established players and fill the holes. He knows that, and that is the part of the game that is the most difficult. Remember , we are talking about a team that could not find and acquire  a established one center , a team that has yet to assemble a second scoring line, a pp  or find or develop a true one defender.

Here it is in black and white, no spin. We have a lw that can score in the last year of his contract (he is worth 7-8 over five in the market), a  2nd pair offensive defenseman,  a elite goaltender in his last year who plays well behind a poor defense and wants to go home, a young #2/3 center, a good checking line,a very good #2 goaltender,  a great fighter ,a few AHL ers who play really hard and a lot of hope and spin.

Edited by waldo, 02 July 2013 - 09:13 AM.


#19 That Aud Smell

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 08:48 AM

View PostSabre Dance, on 02 July 2013 - 08:40 AM, said:

and I fixed the last line

:lol:

:cry:

#20 thesportsbuff

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 08:54 AM

View PostThat Aud Smell, on 02 July 2013 - 08:27 AM, said:

it advances the discussion not at all to say that there's "no plan." mind you, DR's plan may be fluid, even a bit ill-defined, and lacking the sort of vision and judgment that are needed to make a plan work. but there's a plan. it just may be that the plan isn't one of the 8 best plans in the eastern conference.


Yep, this. Darcy admitted himself that "the plan" wasn't to draft two defensemen in the first round... but both Ristolainin (sorry I'm never gonna spell this right) and Zadorov were on their radar at #8 -- some within the organization had Zadorov ranked higher. So when he was still around at 16, the plan changed, and they took him. I'm not saying I agree or disagree but to say he has no plan is an exaggeration.

#21 SwampD

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 08:58 AM

Isn't there an old adage, "Draft for talent. Trade for need." You draft the best talent available at the time you are drafting. I just can't get upset over not picking what the Sabres may need now, when we are talking about kids who won't even be ready for, at the earliest, 4 years. Who knows what the Sabres' needs will be in four years (I'm guessing it will still be a GM)?

Are we actually now seeing Pegula's and Black's plan, not Darcy's? I wonder if they came in and wanted to emulate Pittsburgh's model after seeing what worked there (bottoming out and filling the coffers with high picks for several years), and Darcy talked them out of it, thinking that he really had something in the old core that just needed some tweaks. Now that has failed miserably, time to sell everything off and rebuild, then draft our Crosby in 2014. Just a thought,… and I think I'm okay with that.

Edited by SwampD, 02 July 2013 - 08:59 AM.


#22 That Aud Smell

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 09:31 AM

View PostSwampD, on 02 July 2013 - 08:58 AM, said:

Now that has failed miserably, time to sell everything off and rebuild, then draft our Crosby in 2014. Just a thought,… and I think I'm okay with that.

As am I.

I was going to post "I don't wanna have Darcy in charge of da rebuild blabby-dee-doo-dah-dee", but then thought about it again: If the team really continues to bottom out with a youth movement, it matters less (yes, it still matters some) who is making the personnel decisions. If the team drafts in the top 4 or 5 next year (and the year after), we're gettin' some really, really good players.

#23 PASabreFan

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 10:10 AM

View PostDaveSnuggerud, on 01 July 2013 - 10:24 PM, said:

Hey, he was ahead of the curve in 05-06 right?

Maybe. After Dom left, did he envision a lockout and rules changes that would benefit a smaller, faster team? Or was it happenstance?

View PostSwampD, on 02 July 2013 - 08:58 AM, said:

Are we actually now seeing Pegula's and Black's plan, not Darcy's? I wonder if they came in and wanted to emulate Pittsburgh's model after seeing what worked there (bottoming out and filling the coffers with high picks for several years), and Darcy talked them out of it, thinking that he really had something in the old core that just needed some tweaks. Now that has failed miserably, time to sell everything off and rebuild, then draft our Crosby in 2014. Just a thought,… and I think I'm okay with that.

I love when someone puts a little thought into what ownership is doing. I would tend to disagree though. I think the summer of 2011 was all Terry. He even said recently he gave out those contracts because he wanted to; it was his decision; Jessie's Ehrhoff tweet; etc. I think they wanted to make a "hockey heaven" splash. Over the winter, Darcy talked about the mistake of adding high-end talent without a foundation and it sounded a little to me like he wasn't necessarily blaming himself. My continuing hope is that Terry finally saw the error of his ways recently, and the ongoing plan is all Darcy's, finally. I want Darcy gone, but it might be interesting to see what Darcy can do if given total control. (But then we have Terry saying he wants Miller and Vanek back; Darcy saying the extent of the rebuild would be the owner's decision; and so on.) Who the hell knows. Like OSP, Quinn, Lindy and Darcy, this setup is also at once a circular firing squad and an ongoing circle jerk.

#24 That Aud Smell

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 10:13 AM

Listening to the press conference. Can Uncle Terry invest in some better infrastructure? The streamed picture is poor and the audio is worse.

#25 SwampD

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 04:17 PM

View PostPASabreFan, on 02 July 2013 - 10:10 AM, said:

Maybe. After Dom left, did he envision a lockout and rules changes that would benefit a smaller, faster team? Or was it happenstance?



I love when someone puts a little thought into what ownership is doing. I would tend to disagree though. I think the summer of 2011 was all Terry. He even said recently he gave out those contracts because he wanted to; it was his decision; Jessie's Ehrhoff tweet; etc. I think they wanted to make a "hockey heaven" splash. Over the winter, Darcy talked about the mistake of adding high-end talent without a foundation and it sounded a little to me like he wasn't necessarily blaming himself. My continuing hope is that Terry finally saw the error of his ways recently, and the ongoing plan is all Darcy's, finally. I want Darcy gone, but it might be interesting to see what Darcy can do if given total control. (But then we have Terry saying he wants Miller and Vanek back; Darcy saying the extent of the rebuild would be the owner's decision; and so on.) Who the hell knows. Like OSP, Quinn, Lindy and Darcy, this setup is also at once a circular firing squad and an ongoing circle jerk.
Bold 1. This is probably the more likely scenerio.

Bold 2. Fantastic.

#26 LGR4GM

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 04:19 PM



#27 Sabres Fan In NS

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 04:22 PM

Who's Reiger?

Who cares about this Reiger fellow and if he has a plan?

#28 26CornerBlitz

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 04:27 PM

View PostSabres Fan In NS, on 02 July 2013 - 04:22 PM, said:

Who's Reiger?

Who cares about this Reiger fellow and if he has a plan?

An effort to rhyme Liger and Reiger?

#29 Andrew Amerk

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:36 PM

View Post26CornerBlitz, on 02 July 2013 - 04:27 PM, said:



An effort to rhyme Liger and Reiger?

No, really, who is Reiger?

#30 dudacek

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:39 PM

View PostAndrew Amerk, on 02 July 2013 - 11:36 PM, said:



No, really, who is Reiger?

Isn't he that guy who really wanted to play in Hockey Heaven, so we traded him to Kings?

#31 Andrew Amerk

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Posted 02 July 2013 - 11:42 PM

View Postdudacek, on 02 July 2013 - 11:39 PM, said:



Isn't he that guy who really wanted to play in Hockey Heaven, so we traded him to Kings?

Rick Martin?

#32 weave

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Posted 03 July 2013 - 05:02 AM

View PostAndrew Amerk, on 02 July 2013 - 11:42 PM, said:

Rick Martin?

Larry Playfair silly.