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Sabres have options and need to trade up (LONG write-up)


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#1 Tankalicious

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 03:46 PM

http://sabresoftomor...ed-to-trade-up/


So here's a really long write-up I've been working on. Finally done. I outline what it would cost to move up to EACH position from seven-one. And who the target at those spots would be.

This took a lot of time and effort, would love some feedback! Would you do all of that to move up?

(I know this conversation has been had and will continue to be had forever. Just figured this would add some content to that important discussion).

Edited by DStebb, 17 June 2013 - 03:54 PM.


#2 inkman

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 07:12 PM

I still think you WAY overvalue Tyler Ennis.  Maybe some GM will feel like you do but I'm not liking the chances.

#3 sicknfla

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 07:25 PM

I can appreciate the effort but my God its summertime. Enjoy it!!

#4 Tankalicious

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 08:30 PM

View Postsicknfla, on 17 June 2013 - 07:25 PM, said:

I can appreciate the effort but my God its summertime. Enjoy it!!

I've been working/spending a lot of time outdoors. I do a lot of work on these posts later at night.

View Postinkman, on 17 June 2013 - 07:12 PM, said:

I still think you WAY overvalue Tyler Ennis.  Maybe some GM will feel like you do but I'm not liking the chances.

"Still?" Not sure I've ever talked about his value on here. But in what manner? What do you think he's worth?

#5 X. Benedict

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 09:26 PM

View PostDStebb, on 17 June 2013 - 08:30 PM, said:


"Still?" Not sure I've ever talked about his value on here. But in what manner? What do you think he's worth?
(In my opinion, I wouldn’t trade Tyler Ennis unless it’s straight up for a top five pick or in a trade up into the top three).

Trading Ennis doesn't buy you into the top 5.
Trading Ennis probably doesn't buy you into the top 20 at the moment.

Simply put, he hasn't shown he can be consistent at center, and he's undersized at wing.
Not where you want to be as 4 year pro.

If Ennis was a point a game player, maybe he gets you in the top 10. ....But he isn't.

#6 Tankalicious

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 11:02 PM

View PostX. Benedict, on 17 June 2013 - 09:26 PM, said:

Trading Ennis doesn't buy you into the top 5.
Trading Ennis probably doesn't buy you into the top 20 at the moment.

Simply put, he hasn't shown he can be consistent at center, and he's undersized at wing.
Not where you want to be as 4 year pro.

If Ennis was a point a game player, maybe he gets you in the top 10. ....But he isn't.

I don't personally think that Ennis is worth a top five pick. But I really wouldn't be willing to move him unless the return is drastic. My personal favorite Sabre. Never has issues with effort or ability.

#7 X. Benedict

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 06:14 AM

View PostDStebb, on 17 June 2013 - 11:02 PM, said:

I don't personally think that Ennis is worth a top five pick. But I really wouldn't be willing to move him unless the return is drastic. My personal favorite Sabre. Never has issues with effort or ability.
Ennis has talent, loads of it. The problem is, where does that talent fit?
On the powerplay it works, Ennis is great in open ice. 4 on 4 - give me Ennis.

The problem with Ennis is where does he fit on a line? and how do other teams match up?

He's not a first or second line center. (not yet, anyway)
He's an undersized winger that gets easily knocked off the puck.  (he does get up right away however)

In a tight game he's not the guy to have out there defensively in a strong checking role.

So for most coaches, Ennis is a bit of a conundrum, you love his talent, but  finding the right line and time to exploit his talent is going to mean constantly shifting him around. So it is hard to build a team around him. He can't be part of your core. He's a weapon, not an anchor for a line. That's why his trade value is pretty limited.

This last season was very much about whether or not Ennis could succeed at center. The answer seems to be mixed.
On a poor team Ennis can put up 50-60 pts a year in a top 6 role - but percentages are bad that you win the match-ups.

#8 ThirtyEight

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 06:28 AM

View PostX. Benedict, on 18 June 2013 - 06:14 AM, said:

Ennis has talent, loads of it. The problem is, where does that talent fit?
On the powerplay it works, Ennis is great in open ice. 4 on 4 - give me Ennis.

The problem with Ennis is where does he fit on a line? and how do other teams match up?

He's not a first or second line center. (not yet, anyway)
He's an undersized winger that gets easily knocked off the puck.  (he does get up right away however)

In a tight game he's not the guy to have out there defensively in a strong checking role.

So for most coaches, Ennis is a bit of a conundrum, you love his talent, but  finding the right line and time to exploit his talent is going to mean constantly shifting him around. So it is hard to build a team around him. He can't be part of your core. He's a weapon, not an anchor for a line. That's why his trade value is pretty limited.

This last season was very much about whether or not Ennis could succeed at center. The answer seems to be mixed.
On a poor team Ennis can put up 50-60 pts a year in a top 6 role - but percentages are bad that you win the match-ups.

Ennis needs to gain weight - he is 5'9', which is serviceable (Shaw is 5'10') but he weighs like 170 - if he gained another stone he would be able to hold onto the puck for longer

#9 krt88

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 06:40 AM

It's going to be expensive, the best bet is to try to outright acquire another top 10 pick and then trade the three first round picks plus Grigs to get into the top pick.

If you could move Sekera, the two second rounders and a prospect for #5 and then package #5, 8 and 16 for the top pick, I'd do that.  However, if Grigs had to be in the package along with all 4 top 2 round picks, Sekera and another prospect, not sure I want to trade 7 for just MacKinnon.

I personally think we should be targeting Barkov and use out assets to get the #3 or 4 pick.  #8 and 16 plus a prospect/player could get us up 4/5 picks.

#10 X. Benedict

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 06:42 AM

I thought this blog was interesting...."What does it cost to trade up?"

http://www.broadstre...alue-trading-up

#11 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:07 AM

View PostThirtyEight, on 18 June 2013 - 06:28 AM, said:

Ennis needs to gain weight - he is 5'9', which is serviceable (Shaw is 5'10') but he weighs like 170 - if he gained another stone he would be able to hold onto the puck for longer
Which is a reason I wonder if Ennis may get replaced some day by Catenacci.  He is only 5'10" but he weighs 191lbs and is amazingly fast.  I should say I love ennis but we currently do not have the lineup for him to succeed.

Ennis should be on a line with these two things:
1) A Center along the lines of Getzlaf. Someone who can take up room and open up room for other players. A center who is not afraid to be physical and dig deep into the corners. A shoot first center for Ennis to feed passes to.  Also this guy needs to have above average speed to keep up with Ennis.
2) A Right Wing that is downright nasty.  I am talking Corey Perry type guy that is just a force when he is on his game.  He will open up room and be able to dig down low to get pucks out to Ennis.

See this is the problem we have. Darcy keeps just acquiring shiny toys but he doesn't seem to focus on a group of 6 guys that can work together and have complimentary skills.  Ennis needs a big center and a good sized winger to open up room so he can control the puck, which he does extremely well.  The only players I see in our system who fits that mold for Center is Girgensons.  The only RW is possibly Armia.  Outside of that, Ennis is a nice weapon (well put X) but he is not a core piece.

So the question becomes in 2years how comfortable are you with either Ennis at Center or Ennis on a the 3rd line
Ennis - Girgensons - Armia

#12 Icehole

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:48 AM

View PostX. Benedict, on 18 June 2013 - 06:42 AM, said:

I thought this blog was interesting...."What does it cost to trade up?"

http://www.broadstre...alue-trading-up

From my reading you need to include equal point value in your trade ups or probably slightly more as described in another thread.  The other question I have as stated in another thread is there doesn't appear to be any kind of weighting for the estimated value of the current draft.

This draft IMO, is different than a lot of them in the sense that I don't think the top 1 or 2 are that much ahead of the rest and the drop off after 3 or 4 doesn't seem to be as great as in past years based on what I have read.

This could all be blowing smoke as far as talent evaluators go and much of the estimations that state this is a deep draft could all be part of an echo chamber like in politics, someone says something false, another repeats and it takes an extra set of effort to show that in fact the original statement was blantently false because people start believing it. Still from what I have seen and read of the upcoming guys, it appears this class is in fact deep, so for now I guess I will join the echo chamber.

So assuming the echo chamber is correct, I think that somehow, the pre-echo chamber should be incorporated into what teams are likely to consider paying for moving up to make estimate a little more valuable.  Intuitively, though the curve should be similar, just a bit flatter, especially in the middle and starting below 100 would signal the relative value from one draft to another.

#13 That Aud Smell

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:51 AM

View PostThirtyEight, on 18 June 2013 - 06:28 AM, said:

Ennis needs to gain weight - he is 5'9', which is serviceable (Shaw is 5'10') but he weighs like 170 - if he gained another stone he would be able to hold onto the puck for longer

Dammit - someone get Hugo Girard on the phone.

#14 Tankalicious

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 12:17 PM

View PostX. Benedict, on 18 June 2013 - 06:42 AM, said:

I thought this blog was interesting...."What does it cost to trade up?"

http://www.broadstre...alue-trading-up

Yea, I wanted to make sure I shared that with the readers because it's a good breakdown. Basically says that 8 + 16 is equal to the 3rd/4th pick. I would trade both 8 and 16 for 4 in a heartbeat.

View Postkrt88, on 18 June 2013 - 06:40 AM, said:

It's going to be expensive, the best bet is to try to outright acquire another top 10 pick and then trade the three first round picks plus Grigs to get into the top pick.

If you could move Sekera, the two second rounders and a prospect for #5 and then package #5, 8 and 16 for the top pick, I'd do that.  However, if Grigs had to be in the package along with all 4 top 2 round picks, Sekera and another prospect, not sure I want to trade 7 for just MacKinnon.

I personally think we should be targeting Barkov and use out assets to get the #3 or 4 pick.  #8 and 16 plus a prospect/player could get us up 4/5 picks.

I agree. I think Barkov should be who we target. I, unfortunately, don't actually think anybody in the top 4 will be making a trade. But who knows really.

#15 qwksndmonster

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 01:28 PM

View PostLGR4GM, on 18 June 2013 - 08:07 AM, said:

So the question becomes in 2years how comfortable are you with either Ennis at Center or Ennis on a the 3rd line
Ennis - Girgensons - Armia
I like Ennis - Barkov - Erne

#16 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 01:42 PM

View Postqwksndmonster, on 18 June 2013 - 01:28 PM, said:

I like Ennis - Barkov - Erne
okay that is your #2 line where is Grigorenko?  Is he now on the 3rd line? Girgensons is on the 4th then?  Shifting pieces.