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Drew Stafford in a statistical anomaly


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#1 Numark

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 04:43 PM

Let me first say I want stafford gone as the next one, but this season he is having extremely bad luck.  Statiscally speaking, he should have quite a bit more goals...

He is leading the team in shots with 111 (shocked to realize this), and his shooting percentage is under 5%.  To put that into perspective, he has only shot under 10% twice in his career.  While that 2010 season was an abberation on the opposite of the spectrum, I just wanted to point out he is not this bad.  A change of scenery would be ideal for him, and maybe something DR could push this summer?

(Even including this year, his career shooting percentage is about 2.5 times more than this year)

Edited by Numark, 19 April 2013 - 04:59 PM.


#2 dudacek

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 05:32 PM

I don't think even his biggest haters would dispute Stafford is not as ineffective as he has been this season.
Statistically, he is a proven 20-goal, 50-point man and should fetch that worth in a trade.

The sooner it happens the better.


PS: Does anyone have any theories/inside info why Drew is sucking so badly this year?

#3 IKnowPhysics

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 05:36 PM

I don't know how the other thread made it all the way to Page 2.

It has been a weird statistical year for Staffordylococcus.  His corsi numbers are relatively favorable (he's ok or plays with players that are ok in terms of puck posession), but his actual stats suck giant dick.

View Postdudacek, on 19 April 2013 - 05:32 PM, said:

PS: Does anyone have any theories/inside info why Drew is sucking so badly this year?

When you pose this question, be ready for tidal wave of answers that range from somewhat reasonalbe explanations to complete and utter horsehit.

Edited by IKnowPhysics, 19 April 2013 - 05:34 PM.


#4 Claude_Verret

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 06:24 PM

Interesting numbers and discussion. My theory for his worse than putrid play is that he wants out just as much as most here want him gone.

I'm sure Drew is a good guy off the ice, but I despise him as a member of my favorite hockey team. I want him gone and once he is I wouldn't be sad to see SDS hand out two week bans for even mentioning his name here.

#5 inkman

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 06:24 PM

I think Drew's biggest problem this year is the talet around him.  They guys putting him in position to score aren't exactly Gretzky and Lemieux.

#6 nfreeman

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 07:08 PM

I think he lacks confidence.

#7 Eleven

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 07:47 PM

Get him off of this team NOW.

#8 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 08:34 PM

View PostIKnowPhysics, on 19 April 2013 - 05:36 PM, said:

His corsi numbers are relatively favorable (he's ok or plays with players that are ok in terms of puck posession), but his actual stats suck giant dick.

Official permission to use this as my signature....Sir!?!

#9 Eleven

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Posted 19 April 2013 - 08:37 PM

View PostEleven, on 19 April 2013 - 07:47 PM, said:

Get him off of this team NOW.

Get him off of this team NOW.

#10 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 12:41 AM

View PostIKnowPhysics, on 19 April 2013 - 05:36 PM, said:

I don't know how the other thread made it all the way to Page 2.

It has been a weird statistical year for Staffordylococcus.  His corsi numbers are relatively favorable (he's ok or plays with players that are ok in terms of puck posession), but his actual stats suck giant dick.

When you pose this question, be ready for tidal wave of answers that range from somewhat reasonalbe explanations to complete and utter horsehit.

Could actually make a reasonable argument his possession stats look good because of Ennis.  You'll have to excuse me for not having the exact numbers, but a few weeks ago his Corsi% with Ennis was over 50, but without Ennis was ~35.

#11 Jsixspd

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 08:44 AM

His plus minus is now -17!!!!!   Just lazy and sloppy like Roy was.   Much like Roy he is emblematic of the culture of failure enshrined of late in the Sabres organization.

#12 nobody

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 10:02 AM

View Postinkman, on 19 April 2013 - 06:24 PM, said:

I think Drew's biggest problem this year is the talet around him.  They guys putting him in position to score aren't exactly Gretzky and Lemieux.

Of course some of that means his numbers in the past were influenced by his teammates  - at least his assist total.  He seems to have gotten many opportunities to play with better talent through the years - deserved or not (should I make a Grigorenko reference here? :) ).  So any other team in this league that has better talent should be able to get a decent amount of scoring out of him.

#13 Icehole

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 11:10 AM

View Postdudacek, on 19 April 2013 - 05:32 PM, said:

I don't think even his biggest haters would dispute Stafford is not as ineffective as he has been this season.
Statistically, he is a proven 20-goal, 50-point man and should fetch that worth in a trade.

The sooner it happens the better.


PS: Does anyone have any theories/inside info why Drew is sucking so b iadly this year?

It is not a contract year :)

#14 tom webster

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 11:20 AM

View Postnfreeman, on 19 April 2013 - 07:08 PM, said:

I think he lacks confidence.


This is the biggest contradiction about him. Most of the message board seems to think he is aloof and doesn't care enough about hockey. Those close to him believe that his biggest problem is that he cares too much and is too hard on himself.
I just can't stand to watch him anymore but I think he is likely to and up one of the most successful ex-Sabres since, I don't know, maybe Andreychuk? and I'm alright with that.

Edited by tom webster, 20 April 2013 - 11:20 AM.


#15 Eleven

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 11:43 AM

View Posttom webster, on 20 April 2013 - 11:20 AM, said:

This is the biggest contradiction about him. Most of the message board seems to think he is aloof and doesn't care enough about hockey. Those close to him believe that his biggest problem is that he cares too much and is too hard on himself.
I just can't stand to watch him anymore but I think he is likely to and up one of the most successful ex-Sabres since, I don't know, maybe Andreychuk? and I'm alright with that.

He might care too much, like Vanek.  But, IF that's the case, PUT THE EFFORT IN and the performance will follow.  Vanek gets through his bad streaks because he continues to play through them.  Stafford floats.

#16 Who Else?

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 12:07 PM

Stafford to me seems like a player who needs led.  He plays well when the team does (sometimes) and does not when the team needs him.  This to me is what the term "passenger" is here as said by Drury after his last year and Ott a few weeks ago.  I believe Stafford can score 20-30 goals regularly as long as someone on the ice is pushing him every second.  No one in Buffalo is willing to do this and since he is wearing a letter now, I doubt the Sabres can aquire anyone who will motivate him.

#17 X. Benedict

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 12:11 PM

View Posttom webster, on 20 April 2013 - 11:20 AM, said:

This is the biggest contradiction about him. Most of the message board seems to think he is aloof and doesn't care enough about hockey. Those close to him believe that his biggest problem is that he cares too much and is too hard on himself.
I just can't stand to watch him anymore but I think he is likely to and up one of the most successful ex-Sabres since, I don't know, maybe Andreychuk? and I'm alright with that.

A change of scenery would probably help Stafford.

I think he just might be exhibit A in why you can't build a roster from the outside in.
I don't think Stafford has been on a line that has made any long term sense to me either.

Maybe he'd like to play in Brooklyn next year with John Tavares.
No doubt he's looked at Boyes' revived production.

#18 Eleven

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 12:14 PM

View PostX. Benedict, on 20 April 2013 - 12:11 PM, said:

A change of scenery would probably help Stafford.

I think he just might be exhibit A in why you can't build a roster from the outside in.
I don't think Stafford has been on a line that has made any long term sense to me either.

Maybe he'd like to play in Brooklyn next year with John Tavares.
No doubt he's looked at Boyes' revived production.

Trading him in the conference reaps a double benefit.

Edited by Eleven, 20 April 2013 - 12:14 PM.


#19 nfreeman

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 12:22 PM

View PostX. Benedict, on 20 April 2013 - 12:11 PM, said:

A change of scenery would probably help Stafford.

I think he just might be exhibit A in why you can't build a roster from the outside in.
I don't think Stafford has been on a line that has made any long term sense to me either.

Maybe he'd like to play in Brooklyn next year with John Tavares.
No doubt he's looked at Boyes' revived production.

I think he played with Roy and Vanek quite a bit.  That line was occasionally great but not as often as it should have been.

I could see Stafford finding himself on Tavares' line.  It would be great if that happened in Brooklyn next year but they're saying it will be the following year at the earliest.

#20 X. Benedict

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 12:24 PM

View Postnfreeman, on 20 April 2013 - 12:22 PM, said:

I think he played with Roy and Vanek quite a bit.  That line was occasionally great but not as often as it should have been.

I could see Stafford finding himself on Tavares' line.  It would be great if that happened in Brooklyn next year but they're saying it will be the following year at the earliest.

Vanek and Roy for sure....I was referring to this year.

Oh, I thought they were moving this off-season. My bad.

#21 Neuvirths Glove

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 01:31 PM

View PostEleven, on 20 April 2013 - 11:43 AM, said:

He might care too much, like Vanek.  But, IF that's the case, PUT THE EFFORT IN and the performance will follow.  Vanek gets through his bad streaks because he continues to play through them.  Stafford floats.

Meh.  Vanek is a floater too.  And frankly I don't see Staff floating as much as the rest of you do.  I think he does a good job in the D zone.  Sometimes the floaters are the most dangerous guys in the O zone, but you need good diggers and passers to make that work (think of Paille's goal in Boston the other night- last guy to get there scores the goal after hard work in the corner).

My prediction is that Staff will be on the team next year.  Vanek and Miller will be gone, but Staff will remain.  And he will score 30+ goals next year.

#22 ALF

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 02:11 PM

Drew can't carry the load, he needs a good team around him

#23 qwksndmonster

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 03:31 PM

As soon as our playoff chances were finally finished, Drew scored a dazzling goal.

Edited by qwksndmonster, 20 April 2013 - 03:31 PM.


#24 ROC Sabres

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 03:45 PM

View Postnfreeman, on 20 April 2013 - 12:22 PM, said:

I think he played with Roy and Vanek quite a bit.  That line was occasionally great but not as often as it should have been.

I could see Stafford finding himself on Tavares' line.  It would be great if that happened in Brooklyn next year but they're saying it will be the following year at the earliest.
Last time I remember him being on a line with Roy and Vanek quite a bit was when they were the 3rd line or 1st line after 2007.  This year he has been all over the place like ink said.

I still think he has what it takes and I still like him even though everyone on here is ready to trade him for basically anything. He really is missing someone to kick him in the ass though.  Would have hoped he ended up on a line with Ott regularly to fix that situation but I think it's only happened once or twice this season.

#25 Spndnchz

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 03:46 PM

I'm still wondering how Drew squeezes himself into one of those statistical anomaly's.

#26 Numark

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 05:04 PM

View PostSpndnchz, on 20 April 2013 - 03:46 PM, said:

I'm still wondering how Drew squeezes himself into one of those statistical anomaly's.

he has deceptive speed?

#27 rakish

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 05:16 PM

View Postdudacek, on 19 April 2013 - 05:32 PM, said:


PS: Does anyone have any theories/inside info why Drew is sucking so badly this year?

As for theories, I drew up a couple charts today. To summarize, in the last 45 games of last season Stafford had a greater number of shots inside 12ft and scored 5 of his 14 goals during that period from that distance.  This year, with far fewer shots from 4-12ft, he has no goals from that distance.

As for linemates.  Don't know why the Ennis and Foligno line didn't work this year.  Drew played very well with Gerbe last season on a plus/minus basis, but the Sabres didn't use the pair much this season.

#28 Jsixspd

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 07:22 PM

View Postqwksndmonster, on 20 April 2013 - 03:31 PM, said:

As soon as our playoff chances were finally finished, Drew scored a dazzling goal.

Yeah, I noticed that.   Even so, he STILL has a Leino-like goal output for this season - 6 goals - what a joke!

#29 ROC Sabres

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 07:52 PM

View PostJsixspd, on 20 April 2013 - 07:22 PM, said:

Yeah, I noticed that.   Even so, he STILL has a Leino-like goal output for this season - 6 goals - what a joke!
The bigger joke is he was 5th on the team in goals.  Only 3 players broke single digits in goals this season (including Ennis sitting at 10).

#30 Numark

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Posted 20 April 2013 - 09:19 PM

Im not trying to come off as a stafford fan, but what the heck are you guys talking about him not being clutch.  No one on this team was clutch, but at least stafford had the two most clutch SO goals of the year....

Several people scored yesterday....

#31 MattPie

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 09:05 AM

View PostNumark, on 20 April 2013 - 09:19 PM, said:

Im not trying to come off as a stafford fan, but what the heck are you guys talking about him not being clutch.  No one on this team was clutch, but at least stafford had the two most clutch SO goals of the year....

IMHO, the SO can't be clutch. That has to be during regular play.

#32 LGR4GM

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 09:28 AM

I'm just going to throw this out there... maybe Stafford just isn't that good.  No stat analysis, or positional stuff, or who is he playing with.  Just maybe the guy is a borderline 2nd line player who had a couple of decent seasons.

#33 Numark

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 10:26 AM

View PostLGR4GM, on 22 April 2013 - 09:28 AM, said:

I'm just going to throw this out there... maybe Stafford just isn't that good.  No stat analysis, or positional stuff, or who is he playing with.  Just maybe the guy is a borderline 2nd line player who had a couple of decent seasons.

That's kind of my point.  He is a borderline 2nd line player, but he is performing like a 4th liner this year

#34 Neuvirths Glove

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 10:40 AM

View PostNumark, on 22 April 2013 - 10:26 AM, said:

That's kind of my point.  He is a borderline 2nd line player, but he is performing like a 4th liner this year

The whole team is playing like a 4th liner this year.

#35 That Aud Smell

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Posted 22 April 2013 - 11:10 AM

View PostDoohickie, on 22 April 2013 - 10:40 AM, said:

The whole team is playing like a 4th liner this year.

"I agree--this is the precise reason that the team disappointed ownership and fans this season."

Ted Black, circa March 2012.