43 replies to this topic

[djp14150]

This site is utter crap:

http://www.sportsclu...Buffalo.htmlFor

this is utterly meaningless unless they post their methodology.

They say if buffalo finishes 32-0 they are certain of finishing #1 seed.  This is BS.  Why --either NJ or Pittsburgh could go 29-3 or something like that over their last 32 games ans still be ahead of Buffalo.

The playoff line is around 54 or 55 pts.

in the past a 90 pt season usually means a decent chance with being in the playoff run.  over 8- games you go 40-30-10=90pts

over 8 games you go 4-3-1= 9 pts

So over a shortened 48 game schedule this equate to 54 pts necessary for the playoffs.

If you look at past seasons their is usually a 50+ pt difference in conference standings from worst to first.

This year because of the shortened schedule teams will be fighting so you wont see as much variance in the standings...

here is an example....

Say 2 teams in each division play really good.  the other 3 in a division are fighting for the final 2 slots.

the 2 good teams in each division will have:  4 games against fellow division team, 12 games the other divisions top 2 for a total of  16 games.   Within division games would be 14 games against other divisions would be 18 games.

top 6 teams 16 games  if they split these they are looking at around (7-7-2) 16 pts
other division 14 games if they play strong but arent dominant (say 8-5-3)  19 pts
other   18 games   If they dominate these games   (12-4-2)  26 pts

total.....61 pts

for the bottom 9......

top 2......20 gmaes.... 6-12-2 14 pts
division...10 games....4-4-2     10 pts
other 6 teams.....18 games.....8-8-2   18 pts

total.... 42 pts.

Thus the last post season spot would be around 43 or 44.

If instead of 6 run away for the playoffs you instead have just 3 ...then the line for the playoffs will raise a little.About a point per team that comes back to the pack.

Similarly if there are a few teams that separate themselves toward the bottom, then the playoff line with go up a little.

[IKnowPhysics]

Only 7.7% chance of making the playoffs?

Team troubles aside, we're only 4 points out of 8th with 32 games to play.

[TrueBluePhD]

I don't see any way the last playoff spot is less than 50 points.  Naturally I'd like to know more about their methodology, but 7.7% doesn't seem too far off base honestly.  Whatever their specific methodology is, their bayesian priors are going to be heavily influenced by the games already played, so of course the apparently bad teams are going to make the playoffs in a small percentage of simulations.  Even being optimistic, the totality of the past three years doesn't give us any reason to believe the Sabres are better than mediocre, so when running the simulations there's no reason to assume the Sabres are much if any better than where they are in the standings right now.  Without knowing their methodological specifics it's hard to say a whole lot more, but objectively I think it's a lot easier to justify low priors than high priors, even if we as fans would like to think they're actually better than their place in the standings.

[carpandean]

Their method is fairly simple: it is just Monte Carlo simulation.  They randomly generate a score differential for each game each time they run a season (sample path.)  Using 50/50, the probabilities are equal for the two teams with long-run historical averages determining the probabilities of each type of outcome.  Something like (0.40, 0.06, 0.04, 0.04, 0.06, 0.40) for (RW, OTW, SOW, SOL, OTL, RL), with each of the RW/RL including chances of larger point differentials than 1 goal.  Using weighted, they use the current records (in the sample path, too, not just initially, I believe) of the two teams and a slight bump for home ice advantage to generate the probability distributions of point differential instead.  Again, probably based on sort of loose historical (statistical) analysis of differential given those factors.

They run millions of such paths and then estimate the probabilities of each position as (# paths in a given spot) / (total paths).  The reason that they get "100% chance" of finishing first when going 32-0 is that they never had a sample path occur (or too few occurred given their level of rounding) with both a 32-0 finish and one of the other teams finishing, say, 29-3 or better.  Each is so unlikely that it is not surprising that they never (very rarely) occurred together.

Edited by carpandean, 19 February 2013 - 08:36 AM.

[Grumpy]

2.1%

[Cereal]

djp14150, on 18 February 2013 - 09:38 PM, said:

They say if buffalo finishes 32-0 they are certain of finishing #1 seed.  This is BS.  Why --either NJ or Pittsburgh could go 29-3 or something like that over their last 32 games ans still be ahead of Buffalo.

Deep breath..... 100.0% is rounded up.  Even if they win out, it still is THAT unlikely that another team will be able to hold pace and finish ahead of them, according to their methodology.

Their methodology is legit.  See carp's explanation above.  That site is a wonderland for numbers guys like myself.

[wjag]

0% .. admittedly back of the envelope calculation.  Last I checked you needed to win games to qualify for the playoffs.

Edited by wjag, 22 February 2013 - 11:10 AM.

[ThirtyEight]

Why is we could win the president's trophy if we got 30-0 or 27-1-2 but not 28-1-1?

[TrueBluePhD]

wjag, on 22 February 2013 - 11:00 AM, said:

0% .. admittedly back of the envelope calculation.  Last I checked you needed to win games to qualify for the playoffs.

I dunno, ask the Panthers.  They managed to make it last year by losing enough games in shootouts

[carpandean]

ThirtyEight, on 22 February 2013 - 11:07 AM, said:

Why is we could win the president's trophy if we got 30-0 or 27-1-2 but not 28-1-1?

That falls under their "Row combines multiple less frequent records" disclaimer.  In other words, to save space, they will combine several rows that had few occurrences in their sample.

Edited by carpandean, 24 February 2013 - 05:55 AM.

[ThirtyEight]

Playoff chances are 0.7% now

[kishoph]

ThirtyEight, on 24 February 2013 - 08:00 AM, said:

Playoff chances are 0.7% now

If I had to bet on the Sabres making the playoffs this year or me getting hit by lightning, I might go with the lightning strike.

[BRAWNDO]

kishoph, on 24 February 2013 - 08:26 AM, said:

If I had to bet on the Sabres making the playoffs this year or me getting hit by lightning, I might go with the lightning strike.

And getting by lightning is probably less painful then watching this team.

[Grumpy]

Beat Tampa Bay 2-1, playoff odds up 1 to 1.8%

[Buffalo Wings]

Grumpy, on 27 February 2013 - 08:23 AM, said:

Beat Tampa Bay 2-1, playoff odds up 1 to 1.8%

Lord Stanley, here we come!!

[ThirtyEight]

Grumpy, on 27 February 2013 - 08:23 AM, said:

Beat Tampa Bay 2-1, playoff odds up 1 to 1.8%

18-6-4 gives us 55 points and a 93% chance of the playoffs
16-8-4 gives us 51 points and a 18% chance of the playoffs

[WildCard]

I've been a Bills fan for only the miserable years that have been this playoff drought (my dad got to watch all four SB's so my griping about to ECF made him laugh for awhile) but in that time I've learned pretty quickly when to start rooting for the losses (in tight games though, i still watch them play) for a better draft pick and some shake-ups in the roster/management. Needless to say, this really hasn't worked for the Bills. Yet, with a passionate/rich owner like the Sabres I find myself much more inclined to believe a turn-around isn't far off; i don't think this team is too poor on talent (in the top two lines...minus Stafford) and I like the guys coming up in the ranks. However, I've been asking myself more often during this month if it's time to start hoping for that draft pick and, if it is to happen this season, when it is. That being said, this win over TB, albeit 1/5 in that span, has me hoping for a turnaround in-season for those playoffs.

Bottom line is: do we dream, of the playoffs this year or is their actually hope? The EC isn't nearly as good as the West and with a nice streak that this team happens to go on, who knows? Or am i just a typical Buffalo fan used to making dreams appear out of crappy seasons?

[Glass Case Of Emotion]

I crunched some numbers. I took the last 4 seasons and removed all points earned in western conference games. Then I took the points per game and multiplied by 48 to get how many points that team likely would have earned against an eastern conference only schedule of 48 games. The 8th place teams earned as follows:

2009 playoffs: 54.75 pts
2010 playoffs: 54.00 pts
2011 playoffs: 53.25 pts
2012 playoffs: 57.00 pts

So the average of these numbers is 54.75 points. So that would be the target...EXCEPT:

I noticed a huge anomaly in this years games. There has been a huge reduction in 3 point games. The previous 4 seasons were very consistant as far as eastern conference 3 point games:

08-09: 118 of 480 conference games (24.6%)
09-10: 119 of 480 conference games (24.8%)
10-11: 115 of 480 conference games (24.0%)
11-12: 113 of 480 conference games (23.5%)

But this year, through 145 conference games, only 24 have gone to overtime which is just 16.6% which is a reduction by nearly a third. The we could speculate as to the cause, but the effect of this anomaly will surely be to reduce the total number of points earned by teams, lowering the bar to 8th place. Assuming the trend continues, and half way through the season, I think that's a reasonable assumption, the net effect will be to reduce the points earned in losses by 32%. Over the past 4 seasons, teams have averaged 7.75 points over 64 conference games. adjusting for 48 games we can expect a 2 point reduction in points earned in losses. So 8th place will probably land right around 52-53 points. Right now, the pace for 8th is at 48 points, but there is a huge variation in games played, so I expect 8th place will move toward the mean as things even out, possible landing just shy at 50 or 51. To get to 51 we'd need a record similar to 17-9-2 over the last 28. 17 wins, 11 losses.

[Sabres Fan In NS]

Well, I see the fan of the captain either couldn't sleep last night, or had nothing better to do ...

A good anlaysis and bottom line is, I think, that you are saying the Sabres could quite easily pull it off ... 17 - 11.

Isn't that right, Mr. Sunshine and Kittens ...

[carpandean]

LastPommerFan, on 28 February 2013 - 11:34 AM, said:

So that would be the target...EXCEPT:

I noticed a huge anomaly in this years games. There has been a huge reduction in 3 point games. The previous 4 seasons were very consistant as far as eastern conference 3 point games:

08-09: 118 of 480 conference games (24.6%)
09-10: 119 of 480 conference games (24.8%)
10-11: 115 of 480 conference games (24.0%)
11-12: 113 of 480 conference games (23.5%)

But this year, through 145 conference games, only 24 have gone to overtime which is just 16.6% which is a reduction by nearly a third. The we could speculate as to the cause, but the effect of this anomaly will surely be to reduce the total number of points earned by teams, lowering the bar to 8th place. Assuming the trend continues, and half way through the season, I think that's a reasonable assumption, the net effect will be to reduce the points earned in losses by 32%. Over the past 4 seasons, teams have averaged 7.75 points over 64 conference games. adjusting for 48 games we can expect a 2 point reduction in points earned in losses. So 8th place will probably land right around 52-53 points. Right now, the pace for 8th is at 48 points, but there is a huge variation in games played, so I expect 8th place will move toward the mean as things even out, possible landing just shy at 50 or 51. To get to 51 we'd need a record similar to 17-9-2 over the last 28. 17 wins, 11 losses.

Nothing scientific, but an 18 GP (per team) moving average of % games going to OT/SO from the past two seasons:

 OTSOPercent.jpg   70.53K   19 downloads

Last year, it was a little flatter, but there was definitely still an upward trend at down the stretch.  However, two years ago, there was a large season-long trend.  As such, I would suspect that the % going to OT/SO will rise over the remainder of the season.

Edited by carpandean, 28 February 2013 - 04:04 PM.

[Glass Case Of Emotion]

Current pace of the 7th and 8th place teams is 51.7 pts over 48 games. (Which compares to a very low 88.3 at 82 games)

[NowDoYouBelieve]

Glass Case Of Emotion, on 09 April 2013 - 10:08 AM, said:

Current pace of the 7th and 8th place teams is 51.7 pts over 48 games. (Which compares to a very low 88.3 at 82 games)

Sabres still need 14 points over the next 9 games to accomplish 52.  Yikes.  

[ThirtyEight]

NowDoYouBelieve, on 09 April 2013 - 10:11 AM, said:

Sabres still need 14 points over the next 9 games to accomplish 52.  Yikes.  

Most of the teams we play (NYRx2, WPGx2, NYI, PHI) are the ones in the race - so they are really 4 point games. I think if we get 9 those 12 points and 2 out of the remaining other 6 we make the playoffs with 49 points

[carpandean]

As suspected, the % of 3-point games has gone up steadily (now up to 20.65% for the season in the EC.)  What I did not account for is that over half of the conference would converge to almost the same spot.

[TrueBluePhD]

To the optimists: keep in mind we have the second lowest ROW in the conference, behind only Florida.  So if the playoff pace is 52 points, we need 53.

[Glass Case Of Emotion]

TrueBluePhD, on 09 April 2013 - 11:10 AM, said:

To the optimists: keep in mind we have the second lowest ROW in the conference, behind only Florida.  So if the playoff pace is 52 points, we need 53.

We could catch Jersey, who happens to be the only team we're chasing that we don't play

[X. Benedict]

TrueBluePhD, on 09 April 2013 - 11:10 AM, said:

To the optimists: keep in mind we have the second lowest ROW in the conference, behind only Florida.  So if the playoff pace is 52 points, we need 53.

It's a sure sign that we'll tie for 8 at 53, and lose the tiebreak.

[qwksndmonster]

TrueBluePhD, on 09 April 2013 - 11:10 AM, said:

To the optimists: keep in mind we have the second lowest ROW in the conference, behind only Florida.  So if the playoff pace is 52 points, we need 53.

Don't call me that.  I'm pessimistic as ever, but I still have hope for this team to make the playoffs.  There's likely only 9 Sabres games left until October, so you gotta cheer hard.

[IKnowPhysics]

qwksndmonster, on 09 April 2013 - 12:08 PM, said:

There's likely only 9 Sabres games left until October, so you gotta cheer hard.

Interesting point.  We'll have all summer to piss and moan.

[Meathead]

well the season has been a massive disappointment so its nice at least to have some reason to watch the games besides hoping for development from the transplanted amerks

[Buffalo Wings]

Meathead, on 09 April 2013 - 06:10 PM, said:

well the season has been a massive disappointment so its nice at least to have some reason to watch the games besides hoping for development from the transplanted amerks

Still officially in the race, but I'm not holding my breath.

Yes, I will still root for them to make the playoffs. But if they don't, it's further ammo to get Darcy the hell outta here.

[26CornerBlitz]

Buffalo Wings, on 10 April 2013 - 06:52 AM, said:

Still officially in the race, but I'm not holding my breath.

Yes, I will still root for them to make the playoffs. But if they don't, it's further ammo to get Darcy the hell outta here.

Let's be realistic, the Sabres playoff hopes for this season are    On to the off-season with a permanent HC, Buyouts, Trades, the Entry Draft, and UFA.

[gramps]

26CornerBlitz, on 10 April 2013 - 07:50 AM, said:

Let's be realistic, the Sabres playoff hopes for this season are    On to the off-season with a permanent HC, Buyouts, Trades, the Entry Draft, and UFA.

Agreed, since the Rags only play one team above them in standings in the last 9 games and also have a game in hand. The Isles also have 17 ROW compared to Buffalo's 11 and are 7-2-1 in the their last 10.

See ya next year ...

Edited by gramps, 10 April 2013 - 08:53 AM.

[Buffalo Wings]

26CornerBlitz, on 10 April 2013 - 07:50 AM, said:

Let's be realistic, the Sabres playoff hopes for this season are    On to the off-season with a permanent HC, Buyouts, Trades, the Entry Draft, and UFA.

That's why I'm not holding my breath.

[26CornerBlitz]

Buffalo Wings, on 10 April 2013 - 09:46 AM, said:

That's why I'm not holding my breath.

Excellent....no CPR required then.

[Taro T]

Basically, I'm at the point where I'm convinced they're screwed for moving up in the draft and for making the playoffs.  I'm pretty sure I've known that for a couple of weeks, but I'm just now coming to grips w/ it.  So I'm back onto the watch 'em and root for the W ('cause it just don't matter at this point ).

Another wasted year.

[Andrew Amerk]

Taro T, on 10 April 2013 - 08:09 PM, said:

Basically, I'm at the point where I'm convinced they're screwed for moving up in the draft and for making the playoffs.  I'm pretty sure I've known that for a couple of weeks, but I'm just now coming to grips w/ it.  So I'm back onto the watch 'em and root for the W ('cause it just don't matter at this point ).

Another wasted year.

If by 'rooting for the W' you meant Winnipeg, then you were in luck last night.

[Taro T]

Andrew Amerk, on 10 April 2013 - 10:04 PM, said:

If by 'rooting for the W' you meant Winnipeg, then you were in luck last night.

W, as in win, and no I wasn't.

[Spndnchz]

Looks like we could drop to 14th place soon.

[carpandean]

Spndnchz, on 11 April 2013 - 11:13 PM, said:

Looks like we could drop to 14th place soon.

13th, maybe, but Carolina is four behind with only one game in hand and has lost 7 in a row.