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#1 Meathead

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:23 PM

thats what the sabres likely have to do the rest of the way to make the post season

will they be able to do it? im not feeling it

#2 Loyalty

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:48 PM

I heard recently WGR quote a recent TSN intermission (or report?) that statistical experts predict you'll need 55pts to make the playoffs in the East. If so, going 19-9-2 will only give us 53...

#3 Robviously

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 11:05 PM

View PostVanek-Man, on 17 February 2013 - 10:48 PM, said:

I heard recently WGR quote a recent TSN intermission (or report?) that statistical experts predict you'll need 55pts to make the playoffs in the East. If so, going 19-9-2 will only give us 53...
So 19-9-2 will get us to the magical 9th spot in the East.  Probably a pretty safe bet that's what we'll do then.

Edited by Robviously, 17 February 2013 - 11:06 PM.


#4 IKnowPhysics

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 11:22 PM

Thread title should be 19-9-4 (or 18-8-6 or 20-10-2), as we've played 16 games for 13 points and "need" to beat 54.4points (93 point pace on 82 games).

#5 SabresBillsFan

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:21 AM

I just hope the losing continues and if you think this team is a cup contender your sadly mistaken. Goofball Darcy needs to figure out how to cut the garbage off this team. And Ruff needs to be shown the door.

#6 thesportsbuff

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 01:14 AM

Not worried about it. After they win the next 5 it will be a reasonable 14-9-2 to meet the projected playoff cutoff. But really none of this "projection" stuff even matters, for all we know the playoff cutoff could be 40 points. Especially with an exclusively in-conference schedule, every game is a 4-point contest and it's not illogical to assume that should the top teams continue to do well against the not-so-good teams, the last two or maybe even three playoff spots will be a crap shoot.

#7 Loyalty

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 01:28 AM

View Postthesportsbuff, on 18 February 2013 - 01:14 AM, said:

Not worried about it. After they win the next 5 it will be a reasonable 14-9-2 to meet the projected playoff cutoff. But really none of this "projection" stuff even matters, for all we know the playoff cutoff could be 40 points. Especially with an exclusively in-conference schedule, every game is a 4-point contest and it's not illogical to assume that should the top teams continue to do well against the not-so-good teams, the last two or maybe even three playoff spots will be a crap shoot.

Love your optimism and I wish i could share it.

The team that has lost 3 out of their last 4 is going to win their next 5? Highly unlikely. I wouldn't even bet they will beat Winnipeg on Tuesday, let alone win the next 5. This team is just not very good.

#8 djp14150

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 02:50 AM

View PostVanek-Man, on 17 February 2013 - 10:48 PM, said:

I heard recently WGR quote a recent TSN intermission (or report?) that statistical experts predict you'll need 55pts to make the playoffs in the East. If so, going 19-9-2 will only give us 53...

You dont need to be a statistical expert.....

if you go 40-30-10 over 80 games you are at 90 pts.  Then you have 2 more games.  The line for having a playoff shot has been around 90 pts.

If you  prorate this to a 48 game schedule means you go 4-3-1 over each 8 game stretch...or 9 pts in 8 games.

With 48 games this means 6 8 game blocks,....thus 9* 6 = 54 pts......


Since this is a shorter season and if you have more teams fighting for a slot from the start it will likely lower that playoff line to around 50 because more teams are closer to .500 by beating each other up 19-19-10 would give 48 pts.

At the mid point of this season the pt total you want to get to would be 12-9-3 or 27 pts.

right now they are 6-9-1 13 pts so they need to go on a streak over their next 8 games.

The talent is there with this team...its just a matter of them clicking together.

Last year outside of that injury bug from mid Nov-mid Jan they played at a pace for top in the conference.

#9 Meathead

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 04:32 AM

last season the kings barely squeeked into the playoffs then went on a magical run that shattered playoff w% records for the last half century

more than at any time in professional sports literally any team can win a championship in the nhl. you just gotta get in

its hard to think this team has a long success streak in them, but heck theyve gone on huge runs the last two seasons so why not. one of these years they will figure out a way not to suck so bad in the early going and not put us through this. or not

Edited by Meathead, 18 February 2013 - 04:33 AM.


#10 Braedon

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 05:23 AM

Morris Titanic, Norm Gratton and Tim Horton are not going to help us win the playoffs.  That's just crazy.

#11 716

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:08 AM

I'm tired of these bad starts and barely squeaking or not squeaking in at the end.

#12 Kristian

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:11 AM

View Post716, on 18 February 2013 - 08:08 AM, said:

I'm tired of these bad starts and barely squeaking or not squeaking in at the end.

Yeah, especially since it'll likely be the same story next season.

#13 Grumpy

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:13 AM

13 points in 16 games,

42 points in 32 games

Big task and BIG improvement

Not likely.

#14 Grumpy

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:28 AM

View Postthesportsbuff, on 18 February 2013 - 01:14 AM, said:

Not worried about it. After they win the next 5 it will be a reasonable 14-9-2 to meet the projected playoff cutoff. But really none of this "projection" stuff even matters, for all we know the playoff cutoff could be 40 points. Especially with an exclusively in-conference schedule, every game is a 4-point contest and it's not illogical to assume that should the top teams continue to do well against the not-so-good teams, the last two or maybe even three playoff spots will be a crap shoot.



I like your optimism, but I'm more concerned about everygame being a potential 3 point game. Hate it when two teams ahead of us go to overtime.  Obviously with all games in conference, these games exist  in multiples every night.  Again, I'd have to leave this to the stats guys to figure, but could the potential of all these games in conference inflate points needed from a normal season?  I'm having touble wrapping my head around that concept.

Edited by Grumpy, 18 February 2013 - 08:37 AM.


#15 Dave Dryden

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:29 AM

View PostMeathead, on 17 February 2013 - 10:23 PM, said:

thats what the sabres likely have to do the rest of the way to make the post season

will they be able to do it? im not feeling it
I admit I am math challenged, but the team has played 16 games, so they have 32 to play. 19 + 9 +2 = 30. That's 46 I think.  So 20-10-2 (or something equivalent like 19-9-4) would get them to 48, and 55 points.  But again I could be wrong on all that...

#16 gramps

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:44 AM

Does it statistically matter than all of the games are against the Eastern Conference and afford the ability to make up ground ?

#17 Spndnchz

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:47 AM

View Postgramps, on 18 February 2013 - 08:44 AM, said:

Does it statistically matter than all of the games are against the Eastern Conference and afford the ability to make up ground ?

We were 4 points out of eighth and won one and lost one and now we're 3 points out of eighth.  There's something to that, at least now.  You let it go on for too long you'll get burned.

#18 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:07 AM

View PostMeathead, on 18 February 2013 - 04:32 AM, said:

last season the kings barely squeeked into the playoffs then went on a magical run that shattered playoff w% records for the last half century

more than at any time in professional sports literally any team can win a championship in the nhl. you just gotta get in


its hard to think this team has a long success streak in them, but heck theyve gone on huge runs the last two seasons so why not. one of these years they will figure out a way not to suck so bad in the early going and not put us through this. or not
Exception not the rule.  The Kings made major trades for top 6 talent prior to and during last year.  They had a GT who was 2nd in Vezina voting and won the Hart trophy.  They were nowhere near as young as this years Sabres.  I have absolutely no desire to see us squeak in or end up in 9/10th place.  I don't think this year is a year to "take a run". It is a year to let our young guns get top line minutes and grow.  If we finish outside the playoffs and win the lottery we could even be better off.  I'm not rooting for us to lose but I don't care when we do as long as I see improvement from what I think is the new core.

#19 carpandean

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:28 AM

View PostSpndnchz, on 18 February 2013 - 08:47 AM, said:

We were 4 points out of eighth and won one and lost one and now we're 3 points out of eighth.  There's something to that, at least now.  You let it go on for too long you'll get burned.

Only because of the # games that the Sabres have played.  Through 14GP, the Sabres had 11 points, which was 5 behind the Senators who had 16 points (8th best through 14GP.)  In the worst case scenario, through 16GP, the Sabres' 13 points would be 6 behind the 8th-best Lightning's 19 points.  There are some scenarios through 16 GP where they would have gained ground in those two games, but that would take a lot of looking into who plays who in there games-in-hand to figure out exactly.

Edited by carpandean, 18 February 2013 - 09:32 AM.


#20 sicknfla

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:45 AM

9-19-2. This is the number we should be hoping for. We need talent. The only way we are going to get it is a top 5 pick. Our new core that we are developing does not have enough pure talent. This is something that could be discussed in another thread but does anyone truly believe that we have enough in the system to develop a cup contender?

We have countless high draft pick defenseman that cannot crack the lineup of a weak team. We have a goalie that could not win a big playoff series behind much more talented teams. We must find a goalie that we are considering as this new core.

I could go on and on as to what this team needs but the most obvious is some high level talent. You get that by being bad. Being mediocre keeps you mediocre. Especially with this type of management. Don't need to beat that drum anymore.

Edited by sicknfla, 18 February 2013 - 09:46 AM.


#21 Claude_Verret

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:53 AM

View PostRobviously, on 17 February 2013 - 11:05 PM, said:


So 19-9-2 will get us to the magical 9th spot in the East.  Probably a pretty safe bet that's what we'll do then.

I'm going to go way out on a limb and agree with you on this one.

#22 ThirtyEight

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:57 AM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 February 2013 - 09:45 AM, said:

9-19-2. This is the number we should be hoping for. We need talent. The only way we are going to get it is a top 5 pick. Our new core that we are developing does not have enough pure talent. This is something that could be discussed in another thread but does anyone truly believe that we have enough in the system to develop a cup contender?

We have countless high draft pick defenseman that cannot crack the lineup of a weak team. We have a goalie that could not win a big playoff series behind much more talented teams. We must find a goalie that we are considering as this new core.

I could go on and on as to what this team needs but the most obvious is some high level talent. You get that by being bad. Being mediocre keeps you mediocre. Especially with this type of management. Don't need to beat that drum anymore.

Our scouting was mostly awful under TG. However, in the last 4 years it has started to become very good. It isn't surprising that we have a lot of potential D men who are not in the line-up, because they are mostly 21 and younger.

Miller is a good goalie, and plays big in big games. Ask Vancouver if it is important to have that. Miller is 32, we easily have a few more years in him. Although I really wish we had a Bernier style goalie in the wings, someone who could share the load with him in two or three years and be young enough to be the face of the future core.

High level talent comes from scouting and drafting well. Look at the Red wings prospect pool - it is pretty damn nice. Or look at the Pens prospects, also very nice. Coho, Ennis, Foligno, Grigo, Myers is a nice young core, and in a few years with Pommers, Vanek, Sekera, Hoff as our elder statesmen and probably some of Pysyk, Mccabe, McNabb, Armia, Girgs, we will have a nice team.

But our core is young, it will take a while to develop. I think we need a shutdown centre (ROR) who can open the game up for the other forwards.

I didn't expect to be amazing this year, but I did think we would be a dark horse. I'm not sure why our defence is so damaged, considering nothing changed with it last summer.

#23 sicknfla

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 10:07 AM

First round picks should be in the NHL by 21. If not you are basing their potential on development. You develop later draft picks. You get your top picks experience. The skill level should be there.  You can't teach skill level. If they are so skilled then where are they. A few years ago we were saying when  Funk, weber, butler, etc finished "developing" we would be a cup contender. This is a vicious cycle that we seem to  willingly accept.

#24 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 10:16 AM

View Postsicknfla, on 18 February 2013 - 10:07 AM, said:

First round picks should be in the NHL by 21. If not you are basing their potential on development. You develop later draft picks. You get your top picks experience. The skill level should be there.  You can't teach skill level. If they are so skilled then where are they. A few years ago we were saying when  Funk, weber, butler, etc finished "developing" we would be a cup contender. This is a vicious cycle that we seem to  willingly accept.
Mike Funk: 9nhl games in his career
Chris Butler; 4th rounder we traded to calgary in the Regehr trade.
I don't know when ppl were saying these 2 were going to make us a cup contender but they were drinking good stuff.

As for Mike Weber, I think he is the type of defender you want/need on a cup team.  He skates well, plays smart, and runs everything over.

We currently have these 1st rounders:
Joel Armia: playing well and will probably be on the team next year. (He is on the last yr of his contract in Finland)
Cody Hodgson: Has 14 points and looks to be settling in nicely
Tyler Ennis: Has 13pts and looks to be progressing
Tyler Myers: No freaking clue where this guy will finally top out at but I will hold out hope
Mark Pysyk and Zemgus Girgensons both playing in rochester (girgs is injured) but they seem to have good potential.

That is just our 1st round guys post 2008.  We have more prospect talent now than we did prior to the 2008draft.

As for defenders:
2nd/3rd guys:
McCabe, Leduc, McNabb are all in the system and I have heard really good things about all of them.

Edited by LGR4GM, 18 February 2013 - 10:19 AM.


#25 sicknfla

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 10:26 AM

My point was when Funk,Butler, and Weber were in the system we all acted like our future defense was set for the next 10 years. That was just recently. I don't have the time to go back and use other examples. All i am saying is every year we accept the product we put out on the ice. Then we use our prospects as our hope. I hope i am wrong but history has shown otherwise.

Just using those 3 an example you have a one in three chance with prospects. Absolutely no data to back that point just randomly throwing it out there.

I am just tired of waiting for prospects!!!!!!!

Edited by sicknfla, 18 February 2013 - 10:30 AM.


#26 Spndnchz

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 10:57 AM

View PostLGR4GM, on 18 February 2013 - 10:16 AM, said:

Mike Funk: 9nhl games in his career
Chris Butler; 4th rounder we traded to calgary in the Regehr trade.
I don't know when ppl were saying these 2 were going to make us a cup contender but they were drinking good stuff.

As for Mike Weber, I think he is the type of defender you want/need on a cup team.  He skates well, plays smart, and runs everything over.

We currently have these 1st rounders:
Joel Armia: playing well and will probably be on the team next year. (He is on the last yr of his contract in Finland)
Cody Hodgson: Has 14 points and looks to be settling in nicely
Tyler Ennis: Has 13pts and looks to be progressing
Tyler Myers: No freaking clue where this guy will finally top out at but I will hold out hope
Mark Pysyk and Zemgus Girgensons both playing in rochester (girgs is injured) but they seem to have good potential.

That is just our 1st round guys post 2008.  We have more prospect talent now than we did prior to the 2008draft.

As for defenders:
2nd/3rd guys:
McCabe, Leduc, McNabb are all in the system and I have heard really good things about all of them.

Grigorenko?

#27 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 11:07 AM

View PostSpndnchz, on 18 February 2013 - 10:57 AM, said:

Grigorenko?
yes and Girgensons.  so there is a lot of talent the Sabres have gotten in the last couple of years.

#28 sicknfla

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 11:28 AM

Oh yeah i forgot that they just implemented the draft and we now have prospects in the system. All the more reason we need to finish as bad as we can to get better draft picks. If we are hedging the future on prospects then let's get some more. A mid level pick needs a few years. A top 5 pick usually can come right in and has a higher skill set. Absolutely no need to finish 8th in the conference, get knocked out in round 1, and pick 16.

A bottom 5 finish just may wake up TP as well. Because all the prospects in the world will not win crap with DR & LR running the show for another 3 years.






#29 Meathead

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 11:31 AM

i was tired, dejected, and half drunk when i posted the op so sue me for getting the numbers a little wrong dammit

twice.as.many.wins--half.as.many.losses--a.smattering.of.ties = prolly.no.freakin.playoffs.AAAAAAAAAAGAIN. fawk

#30 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 11:57 AM

View Postgramps, on 18 February 2013 - 08:44 AM, said:

Does it statistically matter than all of the games are against the Eastern Conference and afford the ability to make up ground ?

It's worse....that means that for every game every other Eastern conference team plays...either 2 or 3 points will be awarded to eastern conference teams.

There are no western teams to help out on a run. Detroit and Vancouver can't beat Ottawa.....it will be Carolina and Tampa beating Ottawa....or giving Ottawa a point as well.

You're looking up at pretty much everybody. Even when you win...half of those teams will keep pace with you.....when you lose half or more will distance themselves further from you......not a good scenario for a slow starter in this season.

Edited by Ghost of Dwight Drane, 18 February 2013 - 11:58 AM.


#31 PASabreFan

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:26 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 18 February 2013 - 11:57 AM, said:

It's worse....that means that for every game every other Eastern conference team plays...either 2 or 3 points will be awarded to eastern conference teams.

There are no western teams to help out on a run. Detroit and Vancouver can't beat Ottawa.....it will be Carolina and Tampa beating Ottawa....or giving Ottawa a point as well.

You're looking up at pretty much everybody. Even when you win...half of those teams will keep pace with you.....when you lose half or more will distance themselves further from you......not a good scenario for a slow starter in this season.
But we can look at 1995 and see some hope. Dallas and Washington started 3-8-2 and made the playoffs. Philly had a crappy start and finished second. New Jersey...

#32 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:29 PM

There's always a chance, but the probability isn't particularly favorable.  Off the cuff, I'd say ~10%.

#33 Grumpy

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:37 PM

For what it's worth:

http://www.sportsclu...Buffalo.htmlFor

#34 IKnowPhysics

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 03:13 PM

View PostMeathead, on 18 February 2013 - 11:31 AM, said:

sue me for getting the numbers a little wrong dammit


Math is overrated anyways.

#35 djp14150

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 05:52 PM

View Postgramps, on 18 February 2013 - 08:44 AM, said:

Does it statistically matter than all of the games are against the Eastern Conference and afford the ability to make up ground ?

The fact that games are all eastern conference doesnt matter than much.  With everyone playing each other someone wins and someone loses so you will gain ground on teams.

Over the past years low 90s in pts means playoff shot.

That is where the 54/55 pts come from...from prorating the schedule to the pts.

This year because of it being a shorter season and more teams feel they need to battle now to get to the playoffs teams will be fighting more for points so you will likely see that 54/55 line lower to a more of a .500 pts total of 48 if teams are beating each other up.



That 48 pt line could even be lower (44 ) if you have 4 or 5 teams that dominate the conference beating everyone else and then the rest fight each other.

The next 13 games are important......

Only 2 are within division....

Only 3 are against top 4 in conference (2 NJ, 1 CAR)

this will go a long way in determining if they are in or out.

they will be playing everyone from 6 through 15 at least once.

#36 Grumpy

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 06:28 PM

View Postdjp14150, on 18 February 2013 - 05:52 PM, said:

The fact that games are all eastern conference doesnt matter than much.  With everyone playing each other someone wins and someone loses so you will gain ground on teams.

Over the past years low 90s in pts means playoff shot.

That is where the 54/55 pts come from...from prorating the schedule to the pts.

This year because of it being a shorter season and more teams feel they need to battle now to get to the playoffs teams will be fighting more for points so you will likely see that 54/55 line lower to a more of a .500 pts total of 48 if teams are beating each other up.



That 48 pt line could even be lower (44 ) if you have 4 or 5 teams that dominate the conference beating everyone else and then the rest fight each other.

The next 13 games are important......

Only 2 are within division....

Only 3 are against top 4 in conference (2 NJ, 1 CAR)

this will go a long way in determining if they are in or out.

they will be playing everyone from 6 through 15 at least once.


I love your optimism, but not your math or logic. We don't play in a vacuum. Other teams play and win or get a loser point.

Check it out:

http://www.sportsclu...Buffalo.htmlFor

This team isn't good.  Don't get swept up by yesterday.  Pitt took us lightly after the first minute, put it on cruise control, then flipped the switch to win.  That is waht superior talent allows you to do in the regular season. Besides, Pitt doesn't put physical pressure on the opposing D, which plays into our soft team's makeup.

Despite that, we still made way too may poor passes.

Edited by Grumpy, 18 February 2013 - 07:20 PM.


#37 deluca67

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 07:32 PM

Forget the 19-9-2. what are the Sabres going to do this week? They need points this week. 3 points or less and this week is a complete failure.

#38 wyldnwoody44

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:29 PM

Weve Got, Winnipeg, Toronto, and the Isles.  Anything less than 5 points is pretty much pathetic considering our situation.

#39 IKnowPhysics

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:37 PM

View PostDeLuca67, on 18 February 2013 - 07:32 PM, said:

Forget the 19-9-2. what are the Sabres going to do this week? They need points this week. 3 points or less and this week is a complete failure.

View Postwyldnwoody44, on 18 February 2013 - 08:29 PM, said:

Weve Got, Winnipeg, Toronto, and the Isles.  Anything less than 5 points is pretty much pathetic considering our situation.

SI feels the same way, calling for the Sabres to either go at least 3-2 or go back to the drawing board.

#40 Eleven

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:37 PM

View PostDeLuca67, on 18 February 2013 - 07:32 PM, said:

Forget the 19-9-2. what are the Sabres going to do this week? They need points this week. 3 points or less and this week is a complete failure.

View Postwyldnwoody44, on 18 February 2013 - 08:29 PM, said:

Weve Got, Winnipeg, Toronto, and the Isles.  Anything less than 5 points is pretty much pathetic considering our situation.

5 needs to happen.

Who are we kidding, anyway?  I was talking with a friend tonight, I told him that if hockey was 6-on-6 (with G), no substitutions allowed, the Sabres would be very competitive.  But four lines, three pairings, etc.?  Nah.

Edited by Eleven, 18 February 2013 - 08:38 PM.