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Since when is Seguin the standard for player development?

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#1 Aud Fellow

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 09:46 PM

As discussion about how to best handle Grigorenko's development continues (in the midst of the minority of Sabres fans yell ridiculous comments about Ruff's alleged inability to develop talent, which is another discussion for another thread), I keep hearing people talk about Seguin's development as if his career has been the standard for player development. I don't know if I'm missing something, but it's looking like he is on the verge of a disappointing season. Don't get me wrong, he's talented, but he was talented before his NHL development. What about his development needs to be done to Grigorenko? Seems like a bunch of hype and standard complaining from the Buffalo News and WGR evening guys.

#2 bunomatic

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 10:13 PM

I can think of a few more centres to hold up as the standard by which we develop Griggy other than Seguin. That being said I think Seguin will have a good career. I was hoping Grigs would develop into a stevie Yzerman but thats probably wishful thinking on my part.

#3 wonderbread

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 10:16 PM

Everyone's everything is better than our things.

#4 Eleven

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 10:23 PM

I think that we should look at Gretzky.  Any player who doesn't develop like he did is probably a player not worth keeping.

BTW, Aud Fellow, cool nickname, there.

Edited by Eleven, 15 February 2013 - 10:24 PM.


#5 Aud Fellow

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 10:42 PM

View Postwonderbread, on 15 February 2013 - 10:16 PM, said:

Everyone's everything is better than our things.

Exactly!




Thanks, Eleven

#6 sizzlemeister

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Posted 15 February 2013 - 10:58 PM

I'm not too concerned, yet, with Grigs' development.  I don't necessarily disagree with how he's being used right now, given what's going on with the rest of the team.  It would be nice if the Sabres were hot, and Lindy felt comfortable enough to throw Grigs in between Vanek and Pominville once in a while.  Unfortunately, Lindy has enough to worry about without having to concern himself with Grigs' development.

I plan on being more patient with Grigs before starting to become concerned; if by then end of the season his game hasn't picked up a little, then it might be concerning.  But the kid needs some steaks and cheese to fill out his frame.  And he's not exactly being coached by the most offensively dynamic coach in the world.

#7 ThirtyEight

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 06:08 AM

Seguin had like 9 points in his first 25 games and Stamkos had like 11, Duchene has about 10 - and those stats were often padded with a game of 3 points or so. He is doing fine. I consider this season to basically be his training - let him get used to the NHL and start to contribute (dominate ;)) next season

#8 DeLuca1967

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 06:41 AM

View PostAud Fellow, on 15 February 2013 - 09:46 PM, said:

As discussion about how to best handle Grigorenko's development continues (in the midst of the minority of Sabres fans yell ridiculous comments about Ruff's alleged inability to develop talent, which is another discussion for another thread), I keep hearing people talk about Seguin's development as if his career has been the standard for player development. I don't know if I'm missing something, but it's looking like he is on the verge of a disappointing season. Don't get me wrong, he's talented, but he was talented before his NHL development. What about his development needs to be done to Grigorenko? Seems like a bunch of hype and standard complaining from the Buffalo News and WGR evening guys.
You are missing the point. All players are "talented before" they make it the NHL, that's how they get to the NHL. It's the conversion of the players talent into a NHL level talent that is the tricky part and is where a lot of players fall short. For every Tyler Seguin that has a fairly smooth transition to the NHL game there are several who crash and burn. Seguin is turning into a great offensive talent that is defensively responsible. IMO, that is a perfect career trajectory that I would love to see Grigorenko follow. Any comparison to Seguin in any way should be considered a complement. If the Sabres are using Seguin as a model for Grigorenko's development I don't see how that could be considered a bad thing or an insult to Grigorenko.

#9 Moulson26

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 07:14 AM

View PostDeLuca67, on 16 February 2013 - 06:41 AM, said:

You are missing the point. All players are "talented before" they make it the NHL, that's how they get to the NHL. It's the conversion of the players talent into a NHL level talent that is the tricky part and is where a lot of players fall short. For every Tyler Seguin that has a fairly smooth transition to the NHL game there are several who crash and burn. Seguin is turning into a great offensive talent that is defensively responsible. IMO, that is a perfect career trajectory that I would love to see Grigorenko follow. Any comparison to Seguin in any way should be considered a complement. If the Sabres are using Seguin as a model for Grigorenko's development I don't see how that could be considered a bad thing or an insult to Grigorenko.

The only difference between using Seguin as a model for development of players is, how much different would his development had been if he had played on almost any other team in the league? Seguin's rookie season he didn't play too much because that team was loaded and won the Stanley Cup. In Buffalo, Grigorenko is getting beat out by guys who really should have no business in taking his ice time away.

#10 ThirtyEight

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 07:23 AM

View PostVanek-Man, on 16 February 2013 - 07:14 AM, said:

The only difference between using Seguin as a model for development of players is, how much different would his development had been if he had played on almost any other team in the league? Seguin's rookie season he didn't play too much because that team was loaded and won the Stanley Cup. In Buffalo, Grigorenko is getting beat out by guys who really should have no business in taking his ice time away.

Which player is stealing ice time from him? the 22 year old center with 13 points or the 23 year old one with 12?

#11 DeLuca1967

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 07:28 AM

View PostVanek-Man, on 16 February 2013 - 07:14 AM, said:

The only difference between using Seguin as a model for development of players is, how much different would his development had been if he had played on almost any other team in the league? Seguin's rookie season he didn't play too much because that team was loaded and won the Stanley Cup. In Buffalo, Grigorenko is getting beat out by guys who really should have no business in taking his ice time away.
I agree with this 100%. It's a balance between letting Grigorenko get acclimated to the NHL game and overwhelming the kid. I think back to all the stories and opinions on Tim Connolly and the complaints how the islanders ruined him by throwing him into the lineup too soon. I think is why the Sabres are willing to take it slow with Grigorenko and allow the kid to grow at his own pace.

#12 Moulson26

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 07:29 AM

View PostThirtyEight, on 16 February 2013 - 07:23 AM, said:

Which player is stealing ice time from him? the 22 year old center with 13 points or the 23 year old one with 12?

You think it's completely ok with him sitting for entire periods while guys like Matt Ellis still got playing time? He has been getting his minutes brought up in recent games but theres still opportunity got Ruff to give him slightly a bigger role.

#13 ThirtyEight

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 07:58 AM

View PostVanek-Man, on 16 February 2013 - 07:29 AM, said:

You think it's completely ok with him sitting for entire periods while guys like Matt Ellis still got playing time? He has been getting his minutes brought up in recent games but theres still opportunity got Ruff to give him slightly a bigger role.

Honestly he doesn't do much on the ice, he is not a liability, but he also isn't lighting the lamp. I don't think Ruff is taking ice time he has earnt away from him. I'm sure that Seguin sat now and again while the 4th liners where on the ice.

Over the first 14 games Seguin got 6 points, a -2 and about 12:50 a game, whilst Grigo got 11:12  a game, 3 points and was a -4. All of those stats are fairly similar.
Sequin had a Corsi of -3.4 and faced a competition of -0.406 over the whole season, whilst Grigo has a Corsi of -15.94, however he faces a competition of 2.98. But all the sabres face harder competition and are outshot atm

0.493 was Seguin's Fenwick % over the season and Grigo is 0.396 so far.

I don't see a huge difference here, as I presume the second half of the season increased Seguin's stats. The major thing I see is that Grigo spends a lot of time in his zone when he is on the ice.

#14 NowDoYouBelieve

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 08:19 AM

View PostThirtyEight, on 16 February 2013 - 07:58 AM, said:

Honestly he doesn't do much on the ice, he is not a liability, but he also isn't lighting the lamp. I don't think Ruff is taking ice time he has earnt away from him. I'm sure that Seguin sat now and again while the 4th liners where on the ice.

Over the first 14 games Seguin got 6 points, a -2 and about 12:50 a game, whilst Grigo got 11:12  a game, 3 points and was a -4. All of those stats are fairly similar.
Sequin had a Corsi of -3.4 and faced a competition of -0.406 over the whole season, whilst Grigo has a Corsi of -15.94, however he faces a competition of 2.98. But all the sabres face harder competition and are outshot atm

0.493 was Seguin's Fenwick % over the season and Grigo is 0.396 so far.

I don't see a huge difference here, as I presume the second half of the season increased Seguin's stats. The major thing I see is that Grigo spends a lot of time in his zone when he is on the ice.

Whoa...what are these numbers?  Advanced metrics of some sort?

#15 ThirtyEight

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 08:38 AM

View PostNowDoYouBelieve, on 16 February 2013 - 08:19 AM, said:

Whoa...what are these numbers?  Advanced metrics of some sort?

Corsi is shots/goals/shot attempts etc. expressed as a rate of 60 minutes. So a positive Corsi means when that player is on the ice more shots are taken against the opposing goalie than their goalie. The quality of competition is the average corsi of the opposing players on the ice when that player is on the ice (so if they are against a negative player, then the competition is easier). Thus, over 60 minutes, when Grigo is on the ice, Miller will have 16 more shots than the opposing goalie.

The difference in Grigo's 15.96 and Seguin's 3.4 is not that surprising when you consider how outshot all our lines have been this year.

Fenwick stats measure number of shot attempts (including blocked and missed) against opposing goalie/total shot attempts against both goalies. So a value of 1 would mean 100% of the shots were against the opposing goalie and 0% against Miller. So in Grigo's case 40% of the shots are against the opposing goalie and 60% are against Miller, whilst for Seguin it is 50/50 - but Seguin played a full year, so i would bet that the first half was a lot worse than the second half. The best players (e.g. Toews) have a Fenwick of around 0.6

Basically I don't see a huge difference in the players - Seguin got more ice time, but also was better offensively - chicken and egg.

I think Grigo is doing fine and I don't think other players are stealing ice time from him

#16 Patty16

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 09:06 AM

View PostThirtyEight, on 16 February 2013 - 07:58 AM, said:

Honestly he doesn't do much on the ice, he is not a liability, but he also isn't lighting the lamp. I don't think Ruff is taking ice time he has earnt away from him. I'm sure that Seguin sat now and again while the 4th liners where on the ice.

Over the first 14 games Seguin got 6 points, a -2 and about 12:50 a game, whilst Grigo got 11:12  a game, 3 points and was a -4. All of those stats are fairly similar.
Sequin had a Corsi of -3.4 and faced a competition of -0.406 over the whole season, whilst Grigo has a Corsi of -15.94, however he faces a competition of 2.98. But all the sabres face harder competition and are outshot atm

0.493 was Seguin's Fenwick % over the season and Grigo is 0.396 so far.

I don't see a huge difference here, as I presume the second half of the season increased Seguin's stats. The major thing I see is that Grigo spends a lot of time in his zone when he is on the ice.

exactly, you gotta earn your ice time and he hasn't,  he still has a long way to go to be a full time top 6 forward.  Needs to bulk up and work on his skating

#17 NowDoYouBelieve

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 09:39 AM

View PostThirtyEight, on 16 February 2013 - 08:38 AM, said:

Corsi is shots/goals/shot attempts etc. expressed as a rate of 60 minutes. So a positive Corsi means when that player is on the ice more shots are taken against the opposing goalie than their goalie. The quality of competition is the average corsi of the opposing players on the ice when that player is on the ice (so if they are against a negative player, then the competition is easier). Thus, over 60 minutes, when Grigo is on the ice, Miller will have 16 more shots than the opposing goalie.

The difference in Grigo's 15.96 and Seguin's 3.4 is not that surprising when you consider how outshot all our lines have been this year.

Fenwick stats measure number of shot attempts (including blocked and missed) against opposing goalie/total shot attempts against both goalies. So a value of 1 would mean 100% of the shots were against the opposing goalie and 0% against Miller. So in Grigo's case 40% of the shots are against the opposing goalie and 60% are against Miller, whilst for Seguin it is 50/50 - but Seguin played a full year, so i would bet that the first half was a lot worse than the second half. The best players (e.g. Toews) have a Fenwick of around 0.6

Basically I don't see a huge difference in the players - Seguin got more ice time, but also was better offensively - chicken and egg.

I think Grigo is doing fine and I don't think other players are stealing ice time from him

Ah, cool beans.  Thanks for the explanations.

#18 tom webster

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 09:51 AM

View PostThirtyEight, on 16 February 2013 - 07:23 AM, said:

Which player is stealing ice time from him? the 22 year old center with 13 points or the 23 year old one with 12?

The 23 year old that should be playing wing

#19 drnkirishone

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 01:05 PM

View Posttom webster, on 16 February 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:

The 23 year old that should be playing wing
I still maintain that Ennis is better in the center of the ice then on the wall. Unless Ruff changes his systems to something more complicated (like these players could handle more complicated) where the wingers are in open ice Ennis is better off at center

#20 Eleven

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 01:09 PM

View Postdrnkirishone, on 16 February 2013 - 01:05 PM, said:

I still maintain that Ennis is better in the center of the ice then on the wall. Unless Ruff changes his systems to something more complicated (like these players could handle more complicated) where the wingers are in open ice Ennis is better off at center

I think you're right, and the results bear that out.

#21 tom webster

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 02:11 PM

View Postdrnkirishone, on 16 February 2013 - 01:05 PM, said:

I still maintain that Ennis is better in the center of the ice then on the wall. Unless Ruff changes his systems to something more complicated (like these players could handle more complicated) where the wingers are in open ice Ennis is better off at center

There is no question he is better at center. Question is whether the team is better when he is at center. There is a reason that Ruff grudgingly moved him there and there is a reason why most of the league's smaller players find themselves on wing in today's NHL.

#22 qwksndmonster

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Posted 16 February 2013 - 02:45 PM

View PostEleven, on 16 February 2013 - 01:09 PM, said:

I think you're right, and the results bear that out.
I think Ennis is just good at hockey, and is good at center or wing.  He is the exact kind of player we want forced onto the wing by our splendid center depth.

#23 drnkirishone

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 01:44 PM

View Posttom webster, on 16 February 2013 - 02:11 PM, said:

There is no question he is better at center. Question is whether the team is better when he is at center. There is a reason that Ruff grudgingly moved him there and there is a reason why most of the league's smaller players find themselves on wing in today's NHL.
I don't agree with that about wingers. IMO your center has to be fairly skilled if not the most skilled on his line and a good skater. Ennis fills both thous needs. Until someone with more size comes along that is nearly as skilled and nearly as quick as him this team will be better with him at center

#24 LGR4GM

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:36 AM

Good stuff this morning

View PostThirtyEight, on 16 February 2013 - 07:23 AM, said:

Which player is stealing ice time from him? the 22 year old center with 13 points or the 23 year old one with 12?
lol made me laugh a little but...

View PostVanek-Man, on 16 February 2013 - 07:29 AM, said:

You think it's completely ok with him sitting for entire periods while guys like Matt Ellis still got playing time? He has been getting his minutes brought up in recent games but theres still opportunity got Ruff to give him slightly a bigger role.
... I knew this is what you really meant.  I don't understand why Hecht gets to center that 3rd line at times. Yup he is more defensively sound and has more experience but Grigs isn't getting better sitting.  The trend has been 3mins the 1st 4mins the 2nd and then 6-7mins the 3rd period for Grigs and I always notice the kid more in the 3rd and he looks more involved with more minutes.

View PostPatty16, on 16 February 2013 - 09:06 AM, said:

exactly, you gotta earn your ice time and he hasn't,  he still has a long way to go to be a full time top 6 forward.  Needs to bulk up and work on his skating
I agree with this. He skates okay but he needs to work on speed, balance, and skating work ethic.  You see flashes of speed and strength sometimes when he works down low but he is not consistently able to do that.  Obviously it will come with training and time but how good he gets at it is anyone's guess

View Posttom webster, on 16 February 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:

The 23 year old that should be playing wing
I disagree.  Tyler Ennis who we should remember has played only 156 games and only what? 30-40 at center? He is a playmaker, has some of the best hands ever, and is the best skater on the team in terms of speed, maneuvering, and Balance.  He does better off the wall and moving.  Part of that is size related but I see bigger players unable to match his turns and utterly mesmerized by his hands.  Ennis still has not reached his potential but if you watch he has improved and thats a good sign. He continues to improve and get better and work harder and play smarter.  Will he get moved back to wing at some point is his career? Probably, I wouldn't mind seeing him on Grigs wing.  For now though let the kid do what he did yesterday which is control the puck and make plays.

One more thing quickly, Ennis is on pace for 39pts in 48 games which is up from 34pts in 48 games last year.  Good sign.

Edited by LGR4GM, 18 February 2013 - 09:33 AM.






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