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Ryan O'Reilly - Get Him At All Costs - Who Do You Trade


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#1 CallawaySabres

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:34 AM

Who is your roster player and who is your prospect? Adding another young up and coming Center which may fortify your Center lineup for 10 years is one BIG step in the right direction...

Hodgson
O'Reilly
Grigs
Girgenson (next year)

Talk about a youth movement and you can put together whatever wingers you want. This needs to be the signature move by Pegula and has got to be on the forefront of what they are thinking as the future of this team.

http://prohockeytalk...ct-for-oreilly/

#2 Eleven

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:39 AM

I'm glad this is in a new, dedicated thread.

Roster player:  There are few whom I wouldn't consider.  I guess same goes for prospects.  It all depends on whether the Sabres are getting just O'Reilly in return, or O'Reilly plus more.  It has to "even out," like the Turgeon deal did.

I'd like to protect Pominville, Vanek, Hodgson, Grigorenko, Ehrhoff, Armia, Girgensons, and that's probably about it.  Everything else depends upon the return.

#3 Robviously

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:41 AM

Pominville for O'Reilly would shake our franchise to the core and probably have a ripple effect where we have to trade Vanek and Miller too (since they'd never want to re-sign if we did that).  It'd be the biggest trade of Regier's career by far though and pretty much completely alter everything we're doing as a franchise.

More realistically, Ennis and Armia/McNabb would probably get it done, but I feel like we'd be giving up too much and Colorado would have to throw something else in.

I'd agree to some combination of Ennis/Stafford/Sekera and Pysyk/Gauther-Leduc/Catenacci in a heartbeat

Not interested in trading Grigorenko, Foligno, or Girgensons.  Those guys are all a part of the team I want in the future.

#4 Lanny

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:41 AM

Tough thing is not only do you have to trade assets for him, but then also sign him based off one season of reliable productivity.

Was thinking it'd prob cost something like Ennis & Armia or Pysyk.

Edited by Lanny, 13 February 2013 - 10:43 AM.


#5 Robviously

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:44 AM

View PostLanny, on 13 February 2013 - 10:41 AM, said:

Tough thing is not only do you have to trade assets for him, but then also sign him based off one season of reliable productivity.

Was thinking it'd prob cost something like Ennis & Armia or Pysyk.
Really important point in bold.

#6 weave

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:46 AM

View PostEleven, on 13 February 2013 - 10:39 AM, said:

I'm glad this is in a new, dedicated thread.

Roster player:  There are few whom I wouldn't consider.  I guess same goes for prospects.  It all depends on whether the Sabres are getting just O'Reilly in return, or O'Reilly plus more.  It has to "even out," like the Turgeon deal did.

I'd like to protect Pominville, Vanek, Hodgson, Grigorenko, Ehrhoff, Armia, Girgensons, and that's probably about it.  Everything else depends upon the return.


Not much left after that list that Colorado would even consider.

#7 Derrico

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:47 AM

View PostRobviously, on 13 February 2013 - 10:41 AM, said:

Not interested in trading Grigorenko, Foligno, or Girgensons.  Those guys are all a part of the team I want in the future.

Just out of curiosity is Girgensons back playing for the Amerks?  He got smoked about a month ago and left with a concussion.

#8 Eleven

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:49 AM

View Postweave, on 13 February 2013 - 10:46 AM, said:

Not much left after that list that Colorado would even consider.

You sure?  A lot of people are talking about Ennis and a D prospect.  Plus I only named one active defenseman.

#9 weave

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:52 AM

View PostEleven, on 13 February 2013 - 10:49 AM, said:

You sure?  A lot of people are talking about Ennis and a D prospect.  Plus I only named one active defenseman.

And defense is a position we have a lot of quality depth in, right?  :sick:


I wonder if Myers has enough market value to do a O'Reilly - Myers straight up?

#10 nfreeman

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:52 AM

View PostRobviously, on 13 February 2013 - 10:41 AM, said:

Pominville for O'Reilly would shake our franchise to the core and probably have a ripple effect where we have to trade Vanek and Miller too (since they'd never want to re-sign if we did that).  It'd be the biggest trade of Regier's career by far though and pretty much completely alter everything we're doing as a franchise.

More realistically, Ennis and Armia/McNabb would probably get it done, but I feel like we'd be giving up too much and Colorado would have to throw something else in.

I'd agree to some combination of Ennis/Stafford/Sekera and Pysyk/Gauther-Leduc/Catenacci in a heartbeat

Not interested in trading Grigorenko, Foligno, or Girgensons.  Those guys are all a part of the team I want in the future.

This franchise needs to be shaken to the core.

As for the effect on Miller and Vanek -- while they may or may not have good relationships with Pommer (I doubt anyone here knows), I would think that money and whether the Sabres continue to be a lousy, irrelevant team are going to be by far the 2 biggest factors in their decisions.

I don't think the Sabres would, or should, trade Ennis for O'Reilly (or for anyone else short of a true elite player like Getzlaf or Perry).  I think Ennis has a very high ceiling.  I also think their team speed has declined substantially over the past 3-4 years to the point where they are now below average.  Ennis is the fastest guy on the team.

#11 Eleven

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:55 AM

View Postweave, on 13 February 2013 - 10:52 AM, said:

And defense is a position we have a lot of quality depth in, right?  :sick:


I wonder if Myers has enough market value to do a O'Reilly - Myers straight up?

That's who I had in mind, and I'll bet he does, especially since he's locked up long term and O'Reilly isn't.  The Sabres would have to work out the deal with O'Reilly before completing that trade.

#12 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:55 AM

I'll post more about trade-stuff later this afternoon, but to lob a grenade into the conversation:  offer sheet him for $5.5-6 million--compensation?  1st (nothing to be laughed at given our current trajectory), 2nd, 3rd.  Leaves us with this, this season:

Vanek-Hodgson-Pominville
Foligno-Grigorenko-Ennis
Ott-O'Reilly-Stafford

The logic is to create a 3rd line capable of eating the tough defensive minutes while also producing respectable offense (insert Stafford joke here).  

Note:  I don't expect an offer sheet to happen, not at all.  But if the dispute with O'Reilly is over dollars, shouldn't it be a viable option?  Again, the "viability" is largely predicated on our 1st round pick having real value.

#13 thesportsbuff

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 10:59 AM

View Postweave, on 13 February 2013 - 10:52 AM, said:

And defense is a position we have a lot of quality depth in, right?  :sick:


I wonder if Myers has enough market value to do a O'Reilly - Myers straight up?

I was just typing the same thing when you posted. It goes off the mark a little bit when it comes to the "asking price," but I think prices will always vary from team to team depending on the assets each has available. Myers for O'Reilly would be close to fair value, though in this case, I think Myers has the upper hand and it would be Colorado who had to throw in a little sweetener. Unlike Kessel, O'Reilly is not a proven, elite goal scorer and doesn't have a significant body of work that says he'll become one; so I'm not as quick to trade Myers here as I would be for Kessel.

I doubt the Sabres would do it, though.

Edited by thesportsbuff, 13 February 2013 - 11:00 AM.


#14 PASabreFan

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:08 AM

"I told the hockey department: Make mistakes. I love mistakes. I want to see you make mistakes. The day you're afraid to make a mistake is the day you stop taking chances."

#15 Who Else?

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:11 AM

View Postthesportsbuff, on 13 February 2013 - 10:59 AM, said:

I was just typing the same thing when you posted. It goes off the mark a little bit when it comes to the "asking price," but I think prices will always vary from team to team depending on the assets each has available. Myers for O'Reilly would be close to fair value, though in this case, I think Myers has the upper hand and it would be Colorado who had to throw in a little sweetener. Unlike Kessel, O'Reilly is not a proven, elite goal scorer and doesn't have a significant body of work that says he'll become one; so I'm not as quick to trade Myers here as I would be for Kessel.

I doubt the Sabres would do it, though.

O'Reilly's problem in Colorado is contractual.  I doubt they are going to try to be cheap with him and take on Myers' huge contract.

#16 CallawaySabres

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:13 AM

I would be very curious to see if Ennis and any prospect they want would get it done....

#17 thesportsbuff

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:23 AM

View PostWho Else?, on 13 February 2013 - 11:11 AM, said:

O'Reilly's problem in Colorado is contractual.  I doubt they are going to try to be cheap with him and take on Myers' huge contract.

They aren't necessarily trying to be "cheap" with him. IMO O'Reilly hasn't earned the dollars he's looking for. However, you're probably right, because Myers hasn't necessarily played up to the value of his contract either. The only spin I can put on it is that they already have Duchene, Landeskog and Stastny to build around up front; so maybe they'd be willing to devote that $$ to Myers since he'd address a team weakness and presumably give them a guy to build around on the back end.

Unrelated to above post:

Here is a blog post I wrote back in August about why the Sabres and O'Reilly aren't a good match. However, my stance has changed since then, largely on the grounds that Ennis wasn't the "sure thing" at center that I thought he was. After struggling considerably at times this year, I'm wondering if Ennis may be better off on the wing after all -- an option that basically blows my blog post to pieces; so don't tear me apart for my lofty pre-season expectations! Just posting because it's still kind of relevant: http://www.thesportsbuff.com/?p=1538

Edited by thesportsbuff, 13 February 2013 - 11:23 AM.


#18 nfreeman

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:27 AM

I would not trade Myers for O'Reilly.

View PostPASabreFan, on 13 February 2013 - 11:08 AM, said:

"I told the hockey department: Make mistakes. I love mistakes. I want to see you make mistakes. The day you're afraid to make a mistake is the day you stop taking chances."

Who said this?

#19 Robviously

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:28 AM

View PostDerrico, on 13 February 2013 - 10:47 AM, said:

Just out of curiosity is Girgensons back playing for the Amerks?  He got smoked about a month ago and left with a concussion.
Not yet. Last I heard he was skating with the team in a red "no contact" jersey but that he'd hoped to be back around the middle of February. I guess they sent him to the University of Michigan to get looked at and everything was OK. I'd be fine with the Sabres/Amerks not rushing him at all though.

#20 thesportsbuff

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:29 AM

View Postnfreeman, on 13 February 2013 - 11:27 AM, said:

I would not trade Myers for O'Reilly.


Just to be clear, I wouldn't either. I was just tossing the idea out there. I think it'd be close to even value-wise, but that doesn't mean I'd do it.

#21 Claude_Verret

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:30 AM

View Postnfreeman, on 13 February 2013 - 11:27 AM, said:


Who said this?

Pegula in one of the beyond blue and gold episodes.

#22 Spndnchz

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:37 AM

Everyone is talking like he's the second coming of Crosby.  Bullspit.

And as far as giving up Ennis you gotta be batshit crazy

Each player during entry level deals:

Ennis 140 GP 38G and 92pts
O'Reilly 236GP 39G and 107pts

That trade is just dumb.  Even dumber if you add a prospect.

#23 Lanny

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:51 AM

View Postnfreeman, on 13 February 2013 - 11:27 AM, said:

I would not trade Myers for O'Reilly.



Who said this?


#24 LGR4GM

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:52 AM

View PostSpndnchz, on 13 February 2013 - 11:37 AM, said:

Everyone is talking like he's the second coming of Crosby.  Bullspit.

And as far as giving up Ennis you gotta be batshit crazy

Each player during entry level deals:

Ennis 140 GP 38G and 92pts
O'Reilly 236GP 39G and 107pts

That trade is just dumb.  Even dumber if you add a prospect.
thanks CHZ at least someone isn't drinking the kool-aid this morning.


My favorite thing is I tried to have this damn discussion in December I think.  Anyways, if I was going after his rights (which is what we are discussing) I would say one of our defensemen (Brennan, McNabb, maybe it takes Sekera or Leopold idk) plus a pick (not our 1st) for O'Reilly.  If Ennis is getting traded for him its straight up and I want something back like a pick.  I am done playing the game of everyone elses players are worth 10x ours.

#25 sizzlemeister

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:53 AM

This is like painting the walls of a 50 year old bathroom and calling it "updated".  The whole idea is ridiculous and doesn't address a damn thing that troubles this team.

#26 billsrcursed

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 11:58 AM

View PostSpndnchz, on 13 February 2013 - 11:37 AM, said:

Everyone is talking like he's the second coming of Crosby.  Bullspit.

And as far as giving up Ennis you gotta be batshit crazy

Each player during entry level deals:

Ennis 140 GP 38G and 92pts
O'Reilly 236GP 39G and 107pts

That trade is just dumb.  Even dumber if you add a prospect.

This leads me to my next question then; why is everyone convinced Buffalo would give him the money he's asking for?

#27 qwksndmonster

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:01 PM

Leopold, Adam, and a 6th.

-or-

Ennis and Pysyk and Armia and McNabb.

Edited by qwksndmonster, 13 February 2013 - 12:03 PM.


#28 CallawaySabres

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:08 PM

View PostSpndnchz, on 13 February 2013 - 11:37 AM, said:

Everyone is talking like he's the second coming of Crosby.  Bullspit.

And as far as giving up Ennis you gotta be batshit crazy

Each player during entry level deals:

Ennis 140 GP 38G and 92pts
O'Reilly 236GP 39G and 107pts

That trade is just dumb.  Even dumber if you add a prospect.

I'll take my chances on a 6' 200 pound natural Center who seems to be coming into his own right now over a 5/9 155 pound wing who was converted to Center. Personally, I see more potential in O'Reilly and a nice piece to add to make a contending roster. The team as it is built right now is going NOWHERE and I have no interest in battling for the 8 spot for the next 5 years. Take a chance at the best center you will see become available for a while. They got Hodgson last year, drafted Grigs and now go get the possible missing center. Let those 3 battle for the top 3 lines and off we go....

#29 inkman

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:11 PM

View PostEleven, on 13 February 2013 - 10:49 AM, said:

You sure?  A lot of people are talking about Ennis and a D prospect.  Plus I only named one active defenseman.
If I were the Avs, I'd ask for Foligno and Pysyk

#30 weave

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:11 PM

View PostSpndnchz, on 13 February 2013 - 11:37 AM, said:

Everyone is talking like he's the second coming of Crosby.  Bullspit.

And as far as giving up Ennis you gotta be batshit crazy

Each player during entry level deals:

Ennis 140 GP 38G and 92pts
O'Reilly 236GP 39G and 107pts

That trade is just dumb.  Even dumber if you add a prospect.

He is a different *kind* of Ennis.  He's got ample size and leadership in his game.  He is a decent two way center as well.  Ennis may very well have more skill but O'Reilly is more of the kind of do-the-little-things guy that a team needs when it isn't going well.


One note I'll make.  I think that it was a mistake to assume Foligno was ready for a #2 role after last season's flurry.  I think he isn't ready for it.  And there is a good possibility when he settles out that 2nd line may be a bit of a reach.  Picking up O'Reilly might be the right thing to do simply so that we have enough skill on the roster to have an effective, consistent 2nd line.

Vanek-Hodgson-Pommer
Ennis-O'Reilly-Stafford
Foligno-Grigs-Ott

might be a pretty solid top 9

#31 LGR4GM

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:16 PM

View Postqwksndmonster, on 13 February 2013 - 12:01 PM, said:

Leopold, Adam, and a 6th.

-or-

Ennis and Pysyk and Armia and McNabb.
you mean Ennis and X or Y or Z correct?

#32 inkman

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:16 PM

View Postqwksndmonster, on 13 February 2013 - 12:01 PM, said:

Leopold, Adam, and a 6th.
Garbage, garbage and garbage

#33 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:16 PM

View PostSpndnchz, on 13 February 2013 - 11:37 AM, said:

Everyone is talking like he's the second coming of Crosby.  Bullspit.

And as far as giving up Ennis you gotta be batshit crazy

Each player during entry level deals:

Ennis 140 GP 38G and 92pts
O'Reilly 236GP 39G and 107pts

That trade is just dumb.  Even dumber if you add a prospect.

View Postsizzlemeister, on 13 February 2013 - 11:53 AM, said:

This is like painting the walls of a 50 year old bathroom and calling it "updated".  The whole idea is ridiculous and doesn't address a damn thing that troubles this team.

He's more the second coming of Chris Drury than Crosby :P

While I think Ennis is more talented, O'Reilly fits precisely what this team needs, even counting the prospect pool.  The only center we have who projects to be able to eat up defensive zone starts and chip in offense is Girgensons, and whether he develops into that is both a total crapshoot and several years away.  The biggest loss the Sabres had in trading Roy wasn't his production (sorry Eleven ;) ), it was losing a center who could start in the defensive zone against the other team's top lines so that Ennis could eat up sheltered offensive minutes against lesser competition.  

O'Reilly has spent the last two years playing against teams' top lines and starting 50% or more of the time in the defensive zone, and still produced points at a higher rate than Roy and comparable to Ennis.  Part of the reason for Ennis' decline this year (in addition to naturally regression to the mean) is playing in these situations, and his possession numbers adjusted for zone starts and scoring rates are almost exactly what O'Reilly produced last year;  but the key is Ennis is facing significantly easier competition than O'Reilly.  Ennis' QoC this year:  -.087, O'Reilly's last year:  0.891.

If there's one thing I'm completely convinced of, it's that the Sabres need a center who can anchor a defensively-responsible third line, while also contributing offensively.  O'Reilly is literally perfect for what the team needs at center.

#34 BuffaloSoldier2010

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:17 PM

But can he take faceoffs

#35 Spndnchz

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:20 PM

Let me clear.  I take O'Reilly.  I wouldn't give up Ennis for him.

#36 BuffaloSoldier2010

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:23 PM

In my opinion trading a top prospect an a roster player for negotiating rights seems absolutely obscene.  Colorado must be off their rocker.  If I can do it for Leo and Adam yeah sure you betcha.  

No way I'm parting ways with ennis or armia or mcnabb for a player we still need to convince to play for us.



#37 nfreeman

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:23 PM

View Postinkman, on 13 February 2013 - 12:11 PM, said:

If I were the Avs, I'd ask for Foligno and Pysyk

Me too, but I wouldn't make that trade if I were the Sabres' GM.

View PostTrueBluePhD, on 13 February 2013 - 12:16 PM, said:

He's more the second coming of Chris Drury than Crosby :P

While I think Ennis is more talented, O'Reilly fits precisely what this team needs, even counting the prospect pool.  The only center we have who projects to be able to eat up defensive zone starts and chip in offense is Girgensons, and whether he develops into that is both a total crapshoot and several years away.  The biggest loss the Sabres had in trading Roy wasn't his production (sorry Eleven ;) ), it was losing a center who could start in the defensive zone against the other team's top lines so that Ennis could eat up sheltered offensive minutes against lesser competition.  

O'Reilly has spent the last two years playing against teams' top lines and starting 50% or more of the time in the defensive zone, and still produced points at a higher rate than Roy and comparable to Ennis.  Part of the reason for Ennis' decline this year (in addition to naturally regression to the mean) is playing in these situations, and his possession numbers adjusted for zone starts and scoring rates are almost exactly what O'Reilly produced last year;  but the key is Ennis is facing significantly easier competition than O'Reilly.  Ennis' QoC this year:  -.087, O'Reilly's last year:  0.891.

If there's one thing I'm completely convinced of, it's that the Sabres need a center who can anchor a defensively-responsible third line, while also contributing offensively.  O'Reilly is literally perfect for what the team needs at center.

Good post.  I especially like the comparison to Drury.  As mentioned above though I don't think the Sabres will (or should) give up Ennis.  They are already talent-deficient on offense.

Separately, here is a pretty good article on O'Reilly:  http://www.hockeypro...?articleid=1423

#38 TrueBluePhD

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:23 PM

View PostSpndnchz, on 13 February 2013 - 12:20 PM, said:

Let me clear.  I take O'Reilly.  I wouldn't give up Ennis for him.

Would you then move Ennis back to wing?  I honestly don't see a place for him at center if we added O'Reilly.

#39 tom webster

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:24 PM

View PostSpndnchz, on 13 February 2013 - 12:20 PM, said:

Let me clear.  I take O'Reilly.  I wouldn't give up Ennis for him.

Ennis is a keeper if he can adjust to wing. If all he is is a center, trade him in a heartbeat. You can't win in this league if he is your second or third center except as a change of pace.

Edited by tom webster, 13 February 2013 - 12:35 PM.


#40 qwksndmonster

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 12:25 PM

View PostLGR4GM, on 13 February 2013 - 12:16 PM, said:

you mean Ennis and X or Y or Z correct?

View Postinkman, on 13 February 2013 - 12:16 PM, said:

Garbage, garbage and garbage
;)

I would probably do Ennis for O-Reilly straight up.  But as freeman said, we're getting dangerously slow if we trade away Ennis.