I added the Playoffs chart, but as usual, the difference in games played limits its usefulness. The Rangers and Devils will determine the 8th-place points through at least 23GP and likely through more (it would take the Rangers losing 3 in-a-row and the Jets winning 2 in-a-row for the Jets to affect 8th-place through 24GP; no other team can.) Through 20GP, the Sabres were still 7 points behind 8th-place. Through 21GP, they will be either 5 or 6 behind (depending on the Rangers' next game), and through 22GP, they will be 4 or 5 behind (depending on the Rangers' next 2 games.) The game against the Devils will be huge for distance from the playoffs, as they will likely be the 8th-best team through 22GP (unless the Rangers lose both of their next two.)
On another note, I wrote my own Monte Carlo simulator to add onto my charts spreadsheet. I downloaded the schedule, including the date/time, home team and away team. It simulates only remaining games and adds the results to the current points. To keep it simple (for now), I used a 50/50 split with a 20% chance (overall) of an OT/SO game. I did a quick 60,000 seasons and noticed a few things:
1) I estimated a 12% chance of making the playoffs, which is just slightly above what SportClubStats 50/50 shows (10.3%).
2) The average 8th place finish was just under 53 points.
3) They had a 22.5% chance of finishing dead last (in EC) and a 0.029% chance of finishing first (and that's biased high by the 50/50 split.)
Edited by carpandean, 06 March 2013 - 02:04 PM.