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[OT] Kentucky Derby discussion


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#1 weave

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 07:12 PM

What's everyone thinking?  I'm sure Dwight will have some thoughts.  Planning on getting in on some of the early action this year too.

#2 Eleven

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 08:44 PM

Drane, if you ever wanted me to heed your posts, here's your chance...

#3 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 08:57 PM

View PostEleven, on 29 April 2012 - 08:44 PM, said:

Drane, if you ever wanted me to heed your posts, here's your chance...

That's sweet of you. I'll be sure to put you on the 10-1 shot that finishes 4th.

My pick for last year is ranked #1 in the country now. This year......I have no clue. Need to see how this week goes. I'm not going to be down there, but have friends in the shipping barn. Will break thing sdown Wednesday/Thursday.

#4 CallawaySabres

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 09:31 PM

Headin' down on Thursday....

#5 Eleven

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Posted 29 April 2012 - 09:47 PM

View PostCallawaySabres, on 29 April 2012 - 09:31 PM, said:

Headin' down on Thursday....

Of course you are.  Lucky bastard.

#6 Fire Lindy Ruff NOW

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 12:59 PM

im bettin the 20-1 and 15-1, its big money time. hopefully.

#7 d4rksabre

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 03:29 PM

After doing some reading through the background of each horse, breeder, jockey, etc. I think my pick is going to Bodemeister. Unfortunately it looks like Mike Smith wont be riding him, but the "experts" don't seem to know right where they'd like him to place, so I like those odds. Inexperience and age might be factors, but I like his pedigree. They have him 5th on average, but some have him as high as second and as low as 7th. Perfect. :thumbsup:

#8 MattPie

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:36 PM

View Postd4rksabre, on 30 April 2012 - 03:29 PM, said:

After doing some reading through the background of each horse, breeder, jockey, etc. I think my pick is going to Bodemeister. Unfortunately it looks like Mike Smith wont be riding him, but the "experts" don't seem to know right where they'd like him to place, so I like those odds. Inexperience and age might be factors, but I like his pedigree. They have him 5th on average, but some have him as high as second and as low as 7th. Perfect. :thumbsup:

There no way that horse is winning with Mike Smith weighing him down.
http://coyotes.nhl.c....htm?id=8469608

#9 d4rksabre

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:42 PM

View PostMattPie, on 30 April 2012 - 04:36 PM, said:



There no way that horse is winning with Mike Smith weighing him down.
http://coyotes.nhl.c....htm?id=8469608

Maybe I should consider this a good turn of events then? :lol: Daddy Nose Best is gonna have to do some heavy lifting.

#10 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 07:34 PM

View Postd4rksabre, on 30 April 2012 - 03:29 PM, said:

After doing some reading through the background of each horse, breeder, jockey, etc. I think my pick is going to Bodemeister. Unfortunately it looks like Mike Smith wont be riding him, but the "experts" don't seem to know right where they'd like him to place, so I like those odds. Inexperience and age might be factors, but I like his pedigree. They have him 5th on average, but some have him as high as second and as low as 7th. Perfect. :thumbsup:

He might end up the favorite. I like his style more for the Preakness, but I'm not even sure if I like him. This has been a tough year for me to get excited about anyone.

There are 7 or 8 horses I can see betting. There will probably be 10 horses between 6-1 and 20-1 so there will be value.

I will try and find some juicy exotics on the undercard or the day before. If you hit just one you can play the rest of the weekend for free.

#11 weave

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 07:49 PM

Dwight, any thoughts on the undercard are appreciated.  :D

#12 Neo

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 09:21 PM

After reading GoDD's analysis of Gilmore's fluidity, I may bet him even if Cordy Glenn's the jockey.

#13 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 30 April 2012 - 11:51 PM

OK.......I have a good idea where I'm going. Like I said, there are a good 8 horses or so that can win this, but I feel confident putting my money on this horse, even if I am not confident he will win.

Gemologist

He hasn't raced a ton, but I really like what is going on here. He has the same owner and trainer as Super Saver who won the Derby 2 years ago and has taken the same path. He won a stakes race at 2 at Churchill, took the winter off, then came back for only 2 races before the Derby. What I loved about his last race in the Wood is that he had a late turn of foot.....got clear by a few and then waited on horses to come to him. That's not a good trait in itself, but when the next best horse and a top conder himself, Alpha, came up to him, he immediately rebroke and turned him away. He has pedigree, ability, and heart. He moves pretty well. He doesn't look like a monster, but Pletcher knows how to space out workloads and try and peak out at the right time. His jockey is Javier Castellano who I don't think has ever won the Derby, but he is one of the best. He isn't the biggest, strongest, smartest, or craftiest....but he is right near the top in every category. A really classy guy as well. He won a decent race for us and showed up at 7am the next morning with 2 boxes of gourmet pastries and to check on the horse.

Right now Gemologist is floating between 3rd and 8th on a lot of lists. I think his odds will be right up there near the favorites....maybe 8-1 or so. That's still a nice price if you believe in him. He probably will settle just off the pace in 5th or so. I think he can rate if he has to.

Underneath is a cluster. I have a longstanding theory that doesn't always work. In the Derby bet a physical, grinding horse that can get through traffic without being intimidated. A lot of times the best pure horse on speed and talent will come in 2nd, and you aim for a closer or longshot for 3rd.

If you use that theory, Bodemiester and Hansen fit the bill. I love Hansen, but I don't think this is his trip. He will probably be best at a mile or a tad over. Bodemiester hasn't run a lot but has put up the best speed figures. He has been impressive, but has only 3 races. That's huge when you have a 20 horse field. A smart horse is almost as good as a fast horse when you are running this race. I can see Bodemiester being favorite here at 6-1 or so. I can't take him.

Union Rags was the consensus favorite until his last race. He just hasn't progressed since last year. He has the build, the pedigree, the style, but for whatever reason hasn't exploded. I can see him winning or not even coming close. Tough read. I will use him in the trifecta though.

Creative Cause.....I really like this horse and the way he is put together, but people I trust seem to think he is a tick off. He's by a sire that gets physical issues, so wouldn't be shocked he isn't 100%. Really nice horse though that has the talent to win.

I'll Have Another.....this horse has F'd me but good. I like the way he is put together. He is a handsome fella too. I am just sour grapes because I loved the way he looked going into a race at 40-1 and would have won a handicapping contest if I used him, but I didn't. I don't use him next time because I figured I missed my shot...wins again. I'm on tilt with him. He is a looker though and another that might be a better shot in the Preakness if he goes on.

Take Charge Indy.......This will probably be who I hook up with Gemologist. He has that grinding style and enough speed to get there. He is a perfect pedigree for this as his momma was one of my favorite horses ever. People think he got an easy trip in the Florida Derby, but he is a legit horse. Calvin Borel is on him....so that balances out any longshot factor. He will be in the 15-1 range I would guess.

Sabercat......he's an ok horse that I can see as a longshot maybe getting into the superfecta. If you want to make the Sabres play.....it wouldn't be hopeless to put $2 on him to show. Probably finishes 10th, but oh well.


If you want a stone-cold, retire early, $20 straight trifecta bet.......1)Gemologist 2)Bodemiester 3)Take Charge Indy

That would probably get you $600 for $1 bet.


Don't be stupid, and only bet what you can afford to lose no matter who you bet on.

Entries come out Wednesday for the rest of the card so I will have more then.

#14 weave

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 06:06 AM

Thanks Dwight.  I've been doing a little homework myself but I'm strictly a casual race fan, the 3 big TV events and maybe a half dozen trips to the track for local stuff.  Are there any sites in particular that you like to use for info and analysis?

#15 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 10:48 AM

View Postweave, on 01 May 2012 - 06:06 AM, said:

Thanks Dwight.  I've been doing a little homework myself but I'm strictly a casual race fan, the 3 big TV events and maybe a half dozen trips to the track for local stuff.  Are there any sites in particular that you like to use for info and analysis?

http://www.drf.com/horse/bodemeister

Daily Racing Form has great coverage. on this link, they have a tab to every horse with video analysis. Tons of Derby coverage. Mike Welsch has a segment called Derby Clocker. He's on scene and is VERY good at what he does. You can find that here too.

Brisnet has good daily reports with details and quotes from the people involved.

#16 Glass Case Of Emotion

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 10:58 AM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 30 April 2012 - 11:51 PM, said:

OK.......I have a good idea where I'm going. Like I said, there are a good 8 horses or so that can win this, but I feel confident putting my money on this horse, even if I am not confident he will win.

Gemologist

He hasn't raced a ton, but I really like what is going on here. He has the same owner and trainer as Super Saver who won the Derby 2 years ago and has taken the same path. He won a stakes race at 2 at Churchill, took the winter off, then came back for only 2 races before the Derby. What I loved about his last race in the Wood is that he had a late turn of foot.....got clear by a few and then waited on horses to come to him. That's not a good trait in itself, but when the next best horse and a top conder himself, Alpha, came up to him, he immediately rebroke and turned him away. He has pedigree, ability, and heart. He moves pretty well. He doesn't look like a monster, but Pletcher knows how to space out workloads and try and peak out at the right time. His jockey is Javier Castellano who I don't think has ever won the Derby, but he is one of the best. He isn't the biggest, strongest, smartest, or craftiest....but he is right near the top in every category. A really classy guy as well. He won a decent race for us and showed up at 7am the next morning with 2 boxes of gourmet pastries and to check on the horse.
(snip)

Prior to Super Saver, Todd Pletcher was the Lindy Ruff of Thoroughbred Racing. Always good, but never good enough. 24 straight losses and he finally wins one when he's able to get the best FA jockey on the market to put on top of his horse.

Also, Thanks for the analysis. I'm excited for saturday.

Edited by LastPommerFan, 01 May 2012 - 10:57 AM.


#17 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 11:47 AM

View PostLastPommerFan, on 01 May 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:

Prior to Super Saver, Todd Pletcher was the Lindy Ruff of Thoroughbred Racing. Always good, but never good enough. 24 straight losses and he finally wins one when he's able to get the best FA jockey on the market to put on top of his horse.

Also, Thanks for the analysis. I'm excited for saturday.

No problem.

Don't confuse 1 race with overall success. Pletcher won dozens of races worth more money than the Derby and is the leading trainer this decade with a few dozen training titles. It's more a credit that he got those horses to the Derby as most owners will want to run if they qualify, even if they won't be one of the favorites. He's the best administrator in the game, and could probably GM a hockey team to boot....but it would be the Stars or the Rangers.

#18 Glass Case Of Emotion

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Posted 01 May 2012 - 11:58 AM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 01 May 2012 - 11:47 AM, said:

No problem.

Don't confuse 1 race with overall success. Pletcher won dozens of races worth more money than the Derby and is the leading trainer this decade with a few dozen training titles. It's more a credit that he got those horses to the Derby as most owners will want to run if they qualify, even if they won't be one of the favorites. He's the best administrator in the game, and could probably GM a hockey team to boot....but it would be the Stars or the Rangers.

I look up and see the Eastern Conference Championship, president's cup, and 2 NE Division Banners, and I think to myself. Damn, if only we could win the Derby.

Greg Norman and Jim Kelly would agree.

But in the end Pletcher Finally pulled it off. Thank god the Prestons' gave him is 25th shot.

And a hearty wink ;)

________________________________________

How much difference does the Jockey make in a 20 horse race like this? Is Borel that much better? or is he just getting the good mounts?

Edited by LastPommerFan, 01 May 2012 - 11:59 AM.


#19 Eleven

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 06:59 PM

So, Drane, now that the positions are determined--same analysis for you?  Or is it changed?

(I might just bet that trifecta, with 10% to EC SPCA if I do.)

#20 d4rksabre

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 07:16 PM

Boy, Bodemeister the 4-1 favorite starting in the 6th gate. Now I'm not sure I like my pick haha But it appears Mike Smith will be riding him, which increases my faith in that decisions.

Oddly enough the girlfriend picked Union Rags which has the second place 9-2 odds. This should be fun for us. :pirate:

#21 ChileanSeaBass

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 01:27 PM

I've never bet on the Derby before, but wouldn't mind making a small wager this year.  Pardon the ignorance, but where can you do it?  I'm unaware of any OTBs or Sports Books in my area.  Are there any reputable websites that can be recommended?

#22 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 03:24 PM

View PostChileanSeaBass, on 03 May 2012 - 01:27 PM, said:

I've never bet on the Derby before, but wouldn't mind making a small wager this year.  Pardon the ignorance, but where can you do it?  I'm unaware of any OTBs or Sports Books in my area.  Are there any reputable websites that can be recommended?

twinspires.com is the one I use and find it easy......they usually give out a bonus for newcomers. You have to give your social and bank account much like paypal, but I have never had a problem. They will grant you credit until your transfer can be made from your bank with no fees. It goes in the next business day too if you withdraw.

View PostEleven, on 02 May 2012 - 06:59 PM, said:

So, Drane, now that the positions are determined--same analysis for you?  Or is it changed?

(I might just bet that trifecta, with 10% to EC SPCA if I do.)

I'm ok with everything. Every horse here has questions, so it's just a matter of who is doing the best that day and a little luck. Box the tri if you want insurance. A $1 box costs $6 for 3 horses.

#23 Eleven

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Posted 03 May 2012 - 03:32 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 03 May 2012 - 03:24 PM, said:

twinspires.com is the one I use and find it easy......they usually give out a bonus for newcomers. You have to give your social and bank account much like paypal, but I have never had a problem. They will grant you credit until your transfer can be made from your bank with no fees. It goes in the next business day too if you withdraw.



I'm ok with everything. Every horse here has questions, so it's just a matter of who is doing the best that day and a little luck. Box the tri if you want insurance. A $1 box costs $6 for 3 horses.

Nope, I'm going with your "stone-cold, retire early, $20 straight trifecta bet," although I do not see myself retiring on $12K.

#24 ChileanSeaBass

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 08:41 AM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 03 May 2012 - 03:24 PM, said:

twinspires.com is the one I use and find it easy......they usually give out a bonus for newcomers. You have to give your social and bank account much like paypal, but I have never had a problem. They will grant you credit until your transfer can be made from your bank with no fees. It goes in the next business day too if you withdraw.

Tried to sign up with twinspires.com, but they said they aren't accepting applications from my state (NC).

#25 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:28 AM

View PostChileanSeaBass, on 04 May 2012 - 08:41 AM, said:

Tried to sign up with twinspires.com, but they said they aren't accepting applications from my state (NC).

Bible-belt!

Drf.com and TVG are out there, but you may run into the same problem.

There used to be a stupid law in NY that you couldn't watch races from NY unless you went to OTB or the track itself. You could bet online, but not see what you were betting on.

Sorry. There are offshore sites that pay track odds, but that's a little sketchy in my opinion. Bodog? Again, maybe all these places are outlawed as well.

#26 weave

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:30 AM

Hey Dwight, any thoughts on who (if any) may end up late scratches?  Seems like a field of 20 might end up pared down a bit.

#27 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:36 AM

View Postweave, on 04 May 2012 - 11:30 AM, said:

Hey Dwight, any thoughts on who (if any) may end up late scratches?  Seems like a field of 20 might end up pared down a bit.

The only candidate I see is Creative Cause. You usually don't walk your horse 2 days in a row the week of the Derby.

#28 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 12:00 PM

Here is a link to the live odds.

http://www.kentuckyd...derby-live-odds

Don't count on these until there are a few million in the pool at least. Right now the best idea is the probable payouts of the Oaks/Derby Double. Union Rags looks like a solid favorite at this point.

My early guess sees Union Rags at 9-2, Bodemeister 6-1, Gemologist 7-1, Creative Cause 9-1, Dullahan 9-1, Daddy Nose Best 12-1, Alpha 13-1, Take Charge Indy 15-1, I'll Have Another 15-1, Hansen 15-1, Went the Day Well 17-1

#29 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 12:11 AM

View Postweave, on 29 April 2012 - 07:12 PM, said:

What's everyone thinking?  I'm sure Dwight will have some thoughts.  Planning on getting in on some of the early action this year too.

I'll give you a few ideas where I'm looking.

Race 3   Golden Ticket #5, going to be a favorite, but I like what I have seen from the horse and there are enough decent horses to keep the odds at 3-1 or better. Try out the 3 with him in an exacta box.

Race 4  #7 Night Party, in good form and one of the few speed horses. Should be a better turf horse than dirt, and at 4 years old, now is the time of year a turf horse makes the most improvement...spring/summer of their 4yo year. Tough race, but should get some good odds to at least try a place bet. 8-1/12-1

Race 6  #5 City Sage....listed at 20-1, really on a roll but didn't show much on turf early in career. City Place is a sneaky good turf sire though and the connections are lesser known. Could be a chance at a bomb as he is plenty fast. Box him with #10 and #4 in exactas and tri. If I like how he looks I will try to score.

Race 8  #10 Hungry Island, lost to the favorite in the race twice by less than 2 lengths. I think for the price is a better bet if stays 6-1. #8 is a solid choice to back up in exactas

Race 10  Tough race but at morning line of 20-1...which I think will be closer to 10-1.....#5 Slim Shadey. Really tough race though. #7 Data Link is doing great though and is worth a look if odds drift up. Probably a little long for him though.

Always bet your own hunch. I only know what I have seen on a few of these and have no good scoop.

#30 CallawaySabres

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 08:19 AM

Was hosting some clients at an infield suite yesterday and only bet one race (the Oaks) - put $10 on 4 different horses and #9 won me $158. Took the money and ran

#31 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 09:36 AM

View PostCallawaySabres, on 05 May 2012 - 08:19 AM, said:

Was hosting some clients at an infield suite yesterday and only bet one race (the Oaks) - put $10 on 4 different horses and #9 won me $158. Took the money and ran

There you go.


Race 4 off the turf today......so ignore my pick.

Sloppy early, but track should dry out by the Derby to at least good.

#32 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:13 AM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 05 May 2012 - 09:36 AM, said:

There you go.


Race 4 off the turf today......so ignore my pick.

Sloppy early, but track should dry out by the Derby to at least good.

Race 4 off the turf, don't ignore my pick!  I wish that went on turf without scratches because he would have paid nice. 5-1 is still good, but that wasn't what I was hoping for. I hooked him up with the 2 favorites next race, then City Sage in the 6th......should make for a big Pick 3 if my longshot special pays off.

#33 millbank

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:49 AM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 05 May 2012 - 11:13 AM, said:

Race 4 off the turf, don't ignore my pick!  I wish that went on turf without scratches because he would have paid nice. 5-1 is still good, but that wasn't what I was hoping for. I hooked him up with the 2 favorites next race, then City Sage in the 6th......should make for a big Pick 3 if my longshot special pays off.

thunderstorms last evening,  This effect your picks....?

#34 plenzmd1

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 11:53 AM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 05 May 2012 - 09:36 AM, said:



There you go.


Race 4 off the turf today......so ignore my pick.

Sloppy early, but track should dry out by the Derby to at least good.

couple of things..for those looking to bet online..as mentioned, TwinSpires has been great for me. It does depend on your state whether it will work or not, but very ggod site for playing the horses.

2nd, Dwight i need help today. In CA to start a vaca, so will not be able to really see the track conditions..will be plopping down in fron of the TV about 3.22..so if you can post any bias you are seeing and who that may be favoring would be greatly appreciated. Just have had zero time to watch any of the preps this year. flying in the dark.

Course, even when i am up to speed, i never win the Derby bet...thinking numbers may be the way fro me to go this year LOL

#35 Ghost of Dwight Drane

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 01:42 PM

View Postmillbank, on 05 May 2012 - 11:49 AM, said:

thunderstorms last evening,  This effect your picks....?

View Postplenzmd1, on 05 May 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:

couple of things..for those looking to bet online..as mentioned, TwinSpires has been great for me. It does depend on your state whether it will work or not, but very ggod site for playing the horses.

2nd, Dwight i need help today. In CA to start a vaca, so will not be able to really see the track conditions..will be plopping down in fron of the TV about 3.22..so if you can post any bias you are seeing and who that may be favoring would be greatly appreciated. Just have had zero time to watch any of the preps this year. flying in the dark.

Course, even when i am up to speed, i never win the Derby bet...thinking numbers may be the way fro me to go this year LOL

Track has dried out fast. Speed is holding up very well.....most winners are on the lead or close. The inside looks good....2-3 path is the place to be for sure as horses are winning stretch battles from there.

Turf softened a little which may help my Slim Shadey selection, being a French horse in the race before Derby.

Gemologist is not hot on the board, but holding. All systems go for me. Everyone keeps talking about Daddy Nose Best, but I think turf is where those Scat Daddy's want to be. Who knows. Don't NOT do something because of someone else. I have learned that over the years. If anything, maybe do a little something extra so you don't hate yourself if you were right.

#36 Potato

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 05:34 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 05 May 2012 - 01:42 PM, said:

Track has dried out fast. Speed is holding up very well.....most winners are on the lead or close. The inside looks good....2-3 path is the place to be for sure as horses are winning stretch battles from there.

Turf softened a little which may help my Slim Shadey selection, being a French horse in the race before Derby.

Gemologist is not hot on the board, but holding. All systems go for me. Everyone keeps talking about Daddy Nose Best, but I think turf is where those Scat Daddy's want to be. Who knows. Don't NOT do something because of someone else. I have learned that over the years. If anything, maybe do a little something extra so you don't hate yourself if you were right.

I like Gemologist.  He knows this track well.  Race about to start!!!

I'll Have Another wins it!  Wow - exciting finish!

#37 d4rksabre

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 05:38 PM

Oh Bodemeister, so close, but what a race! I'll Have Another with a great burst of speed to win it. Much more exciting for my pick this year even though he placed second.

Bodemeister with the 5th fastest splits in Derby history.

Edited by d4rksabre, 05 May 2012 - 05:47 PM.


#38 Taro T

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 06:27 PM

View PostGhost of Dwight Drane, on 30 April 2012 - 11:51 PM, said:

OK.......I have a good idea where I'm going. Like I said, there are a good 8 horses or so that can win this, but I feel confident putting my money on this horse, even if I am not confident he will win.

Gemologist

He hasn't raced a ton, but I really like what is going on here. He has the same owner and trainer as Super Saver who won the Derby 2 years ago and has taken the same path. He won a stakes race at 2 at Churchill, took the winter off, then came back for only 2 races before the Derby. What I loved about his last race in the Wood is that he had a late turn of foot.....got clear by a few and then waited on horses to come to him. That's not a good trait in itself, but when the next best horse and a top conder himself, Alpha, came up to him, he immediately rebroke and turned him away. He has pedigree, ability, and heart. He moves pretty well. He doesn't look like a monster, but Pletcher knows how to space out workloads and try and peak out at the right time. His jockey is Javier Castellano who I don't think has ever won the Derby, but he is one of the best. He isn't the biggest, strongest, smartest, or craftiest....but he is right near the top in every category. A really classy guy as well. He won a decent race for us and showed up at 7am the next morning with 2 boxes of gourmet pastries and to check on the horse.

Right now Gemologist is floating between 3rd and 8th on a lot of lists. I think his odds will be right up there near the favorites....maybe 8-1 or so. That's still a nice price if you believe in him. He probably will settle just off the pace in 5th or so. I think he can rate if he has to.

Underneath is a cluster. ...

...

I'll Have Another.....this horse has F'd me but good. I like the way he is put together. He is a handsome fella too. I am just sour grapes because I loved the way he looked going into a race at 40-1 and would have won a handicapping contest if I used him, but I didn't. I don't use him next time because I figured I missed my shot...wins again. I'm on tilt with him. He is a looker though and another that might be a better shot in the Preakness if he goes on.

...

If you want a stone-cold, retire early, $20 straight trifecta bet.......1)Gemologist 2)Bodemiester 3)Take Charge Indy

That would probably get you $600 for $1 bet.


Don't be stupid, and only bet what you can afford to lose no matter who you bet on.

Entries come out Wednesday for the rest of the card so I will have more then.
Bummer.  Looks like he got you again.

Thanks for the info on the race.

#39 X. Benedict

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 07:34 PM

Believe it or not I broke exactly even. Played a bunch of TRI, EXB, keying on Calvin Borel.... but got it all back on I'll have another.

Fun day.......

#40 plenzmd1

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 08:00 PM

hah, was with my buddy and his family on Balboa Island when we noticed it was 3.10pm. Thank God we brought  IPAD and we ducked into a bar as i was able to bring up twin spires . Being in the bar, we put $10 on I'll Have Antother and about $40 in other bets. So this is the first Derby in at least the last 15 where I  actually made money..like i said earlier had a feeling better off not handicaping LOL.

Edited by plenzmd1, 05 May 2012 - 08:02 PM.