21 replies to this topic

[thesportsbuff]

The Sabres have 30 games remaining in the season and sit at 50 points -- 14th in the East. I'm just curious as to what games everybody thinks are "must/should win", could go either way, and probable losses. Then if you want, feel free to do the math and see around how many points they'll finish with if you are nostradamus.

I have broken down the list of remaining games into three categories: "Must Wins" (games against teams we should (and pretty much need to) beat), "Either Way" (games against tougher teams but still could go either way), and "Big Games" (games that we'll probably lose and would be considered a BIG win if we came away with 2 points). Obviously people are going to have different opinions on where these games belong, maybe especially on teams like Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Toronto, and some Western clubs. So just sort the games into the groups you think they belong.

SHOULD WINS (13 Games, 26 points available):

2/10 Dallas W 3-2 (SO)

2/11 Tampa Bay L 2-1

2/14 New Jersey

2/17 Montreal

2/21 Islanders

2/29 Anahiem

3/5 Winnipeg

3/7 Carolina

3/10 Ottawa

3/12 Montreal

3/14 Colorado

3/17 Florida

3/19 Tampa Bay

3/21 Montreal

3/24 Minnesota

EITHER WAY (6 Games, 12 points available):

2/19 Pittsburgh

3/1 San Jose

3/27 Washington

3/30 Pittsburgh

3/31 Toronto

4/3 Toronto

BIG GAMES (8 Games, 16 points available):

2/8 Boston W 6-0

2/16 Philly

2/24 Boston

2/25 Rangers

3/3 Vancouver

3/8 Boston

3/23 Rangers

4/5 Philly

4/7 Boston

So if the Sabres win all of the games (15) I've deem as "should wins," they'll earn 30 points, giving them a total of 80 on the season. We'll just split it down the middle and say they win half of the "either way" games (3), they'll earn 6 points = 86. The #8 seed finished with 93 points last year, so the Sabres would need probably 7-10 points to clinch a spot -- that would be somehow finding a way to win 4 or 5 of the "Big Games" against the league's best, or at least coming away with some points. Which, the last part isn't too unreasonable -- I could see them winning enough of those "big games" -- but unfortunately teams will always have off nights and lose to teams that they "should" beat, and the Sabres won't win 15 of those "must wins."

That would mean a record of 22-8, 20-6-4, something like that.

Obviously this doesn't really mean anything so don't argue over where who puts what teams where, just post your own list if you feel like it but don't take it too seriously. Just having some fun really -- it might cool to come back at the end of the season and see how close you came! If anybody nails it correctly I'll burn my Tim Connolly jersey (what-- you expected a real prize?).

Edited by thesportsbuff, 12 February 2012 - 08:51 AM.

[spndnchz]

19-7-4 should get them close. Three point games a big factor right now.

[gramps]

Another way to think about it ... 11 pts behind Ottawa in 8th with 4 games in hand. Winning four in regulation gets them within 3 ...

[OverPowerYou]

All they have to do is win 60 percent of their games and they're in. That's 18/30... They nearly did that last year (or something similar)

[LabattBlue]

OverPowerYou, on 08 February 2012 - 10:23 AM, said:

All they have to do is win 60 percent of their games and they're in. That's 18/30... They nearly did that last year (or something similar)

You think the Sabres are going to be a lock with 86 points? Since the lockout, the 8th place teams in both conferences have finished with a minimum of 91 points except for one year a team had 88.

Edited by LabattBlue, 08 February 2012 - 10:52 AM.

[Derrico]

spndnchz, on 08 February 2012 - 07:50 AM, said:

19-7-4 should get them close. Three point games a big factor right now.

I think that's a reasonable estimate. Sportsclubstats.com says we will have an 81.4% chance of making the playoffs with that record.

[fan2456]

I know what will get them close, but what do I expect them to do? Hover around .500 for the remaining games and be golfing in April.

[apuszczalowski]

Those 2 games against Toronto are must wins. You can't be out there losing to the teams that are going to be battling with you for a playoff spot. Losing to Toronto would bury them further down then losing to Dallas, Anaheim, Colorado or Minneosota.

[LGR4GM]

I really hope they don't go on a 20-6-4 run because they aren't a cup team and doing that will only prolong the mediocrity that has stagnated this franchise for half a decade...

IMHO this team has no must win games because you never know which team will show up on any given night. Thats why you can take the rangers to a shootout and then lose 5-2 to the islanders. Consistency wins cups and them making the playoffs is irrelevant if they are just going to collapse in the first round... again.

[IKnowPhysics]

LGR4GM, on 08 February 2012 - 03:06 PM, said:

I really hope they don't go on a 20-6-4 run because they aren't a cup team and doing that will only prolong the mediocrity that has stagnated this franchise for half a decade...

So losing enough begets winning?

I'm not jumping down your throat, but I am curbing that nonsense right now. I already addressed this thinking last year, so I'mma just leave these here.

[time machine]

IKnowPhysics, on 05 February 2011 - 01:15 PM, said:

You're right.

If they make it in, they shouldn't think they could win. Hell, they shouldn't even try to win. They might as well stop trying to make the playoffs, because that endeavour's pointless if you can't win the Cup. They should sandbag to get high draft picks every year until they have a team that that will predictably and undoubtedly win the Cup, and only go to the playoffs if they're a high seed.

But IKP, you say, it's statistically difficult to guarantee that a particular team is going to win the Stanley Cup. How will we know which year to try to get into the playoffs?

You're right again! I guess we're SOL. Remember, the true definition of competition is to actually win, not the act of striving to win. So if the Sabres don't win every game all the time, you're not actually watching sports.

IKnowPhysics, on 07 February 2011 - 12:22 PM, said:

My satiric prodding is only a tribute to the mind-numbingly obvious facts that playoffs are better than no playoffs and that we as fans should continue to push the team to compete and win as much as possible regardless of what situation they're in.

[/time machine]

Always push for the win.
Not striving to win belies the definition of sport.
Playoffs are better than no playoffs.
Tampa having one Cup does not make them a better franchise than Buffalo, but Buffalo having a significantly better all-time winning percentage (55.3%) contributes to an argument that they are a better franchise than Tampa (44.9%).

[K-9]

IKnowPhysics, on 08 February 2012 - 06:02 PM, said:

So losing enough begets winning?

I'm not jumping down your throat, but I am curbing that nonsense right now. I already addressed this thinking last year, so I'mma just leave these here.

[time machine]



[/time machine]

Always push for the win.
Not striving to win belies the definition of sport.
Playoffs are better than no playoffs.
Tampa having one Cup does not make them a better franchise than Buffalo, but Buffalo having a significantly better all-time winning percentage (55.3%) contributes to an argument that they are a better franchise than Tampa (44.9%).

I agree. This idea of preferring to lose is anathema to the players and it should be to fans as well. I don't understand how anyone can hope for the team to play in a way that pisses them off so much in the first place.

GO SABRES!!!

[TheChimp]

I see them being able to make it, as some of those teams hovering around 8th are all struggling right now to maintain.


First Round bounce, here we come!!!!!! WOOOOOHOOOOOO

[LGR4GM]

IKnowPhysics, on 08 February 2012 - 06:02 PM, said:

So losing enough begets winning?

I'm not jumping down your throat, but I am curbing that nonsense right now. I already addressed this thinking last year, so I'mma just leave these here.

Always push for the win.
Not striving to win belies the definition of sport.
Playoffs are better than no playoffs.
Tampa having one Cup does not make them a better franchise than Buffalo, but Buffalo having a significantly better all-time winning percentage (55.3%) contributes to an argument that they are a better franchise than Tampa (44.9%).

Its not nonsense its actually the most logical thing in the world. You are assuming that a losing team will continue to lose and a winning team will continue to win. If that logic were true the Sabres should be on fire because they ended last season on fire. It just is not a viable theory. If you think that I don't watch every game hoping for a win and cheering every goal you are mistaken. I just understand the end game and its not "making the playoffs" its winning a cup. Having 12-18th overall picks will not net you the talent needed to ever win a cup unless you are fortunate enough to do what Detroit did (late round picks that are top line talents).

I will make a deal with the board. IF and only IF the Sabres trade Roy OR Stafford before the deadline I will not make 1 post about how they need to tank until the season ends, whenever that is. I say this because I believe that these two, Roy especially, are a locker room problem. If they are either both or at least 1 of them shipped off then it could allow for a significant improvement in the teams chemistry. Until then I maintain that a first round playoff exit is more detrimental then tanking.

[TheMatrix31]

I'd say any games against teams in front of us are "must wins". This means Florida, NYI, Winnipeg, and Ottawa. And we should probably beat the ones behind us too. Yeah, the games against Boston, NYR, etc are "must wins" too, but them beating us doesn't directly give points to teams ahead of us, so whatever.

[OverPowerYou]

LabattBlue, on 08 February 2012 - 10:51 AM, said:

You think the Sabres are going to be a lock with 86 points? Since the lockout, the 8th place teams in both conferences have finished with a minimum of 91 points except for one year a team had 88.

I can really see Ottawa, Toronto, New Jersey and Florida/Washington really losing alot in the last part of the year.

[nfreeman]

Ottawa is #8 currently and is on pace for 89.3 pts. Florida is #9 but with 4 fewer games played is on pace right now for 93 pts.

Last year, the Sabres finished #7 with 96 pts and the Rangers were #8 with 93 pts. In the WC, Chicago finished #8 with 97 pts and Dallas was #9 with 95 pts.

To be reasonably confident of getting in, the Sabres need 95 points.

They have 52 points in 53 games, so they need 43 points their next 29 games.

So: 20-6-3 probably gets them into the playoffs.

It's possible. Not likely, but possible.

Let's get a W tomorrow night vs Dallas -- who are 2 pts out of the playoffs in the WC, so we should assume they will be coming hard.

Go Sabres. I'm not giving up yet.

[Chris_in_UT]

nfreeman, on 09 February 2012 - 06:41 PM, said:

Ottawa is #8 currently and is on pace for 89.3 pts. Florida is #9 but with 4 fewer games played is on pace right now for 93 pts.

Last year, the Sabres finished #7 with 96 pts and the Rangers were #8 with 93 pts. In the WC, Chicago finished #8 with 97 pts and Dallas was #9 with 95 pts.

To be reasonably confident of getting in, the Sabres need 95 points.

They have 52 points in 53 games, so they need 43 points their next 29 games.

So: 20-6-3 probably gets them into the playoffs.

It's possible. Not likely, but possible.

Let's get a W tomorrow night vs Dallas -- who are 2 pts out of the playoffs in the WC, so we should assume they will be coming hard.

Go Sabres. I'm not giving up yet.

As well you shouldn't. None of us should. I said it right before the break ended; I think great things are coming down the pike for this team. They've now played 5 or 6 complete, 60 minute games. I expect the same tomorrow.

[LabattBlue]

To put in to perspective what a tough road the Sabres have ahead of them to make the playoffs, they would need to have a point percentage of .678 over the last 28 games to make it to 92 points. Only four teams in the NHL have point percentages above or close to that as of today...

New York - .702
Detroit - .679
Vancouver - .676
St. Louis - .670

[PromoTheRobot]

All I know is they did it last year with the same core guys (much to the chagrin of the fellowship of the miserable.) And they were a bounce or two away from advancing.

PTR

[nfreeman]

After last night's thriller, 19-6-3 over their last 28 games gets them to 95 points.

The mountain gets a bit more climb-able with each win.

[plenzmd1]

Can I say 30-0 at this point?

[Chris_in_UT]

last night kind of put a ###### in the armor of the last several games. they played pretty listlessly through the first 2, but decided to show up for the 3rd and OT. and even with that lackadaisical effort in the first 2, they were still hitting posts and pads.

i don't like the second game of back to backs, so i'm a bit reserved with thinking they'll win this. if they had put on a boston-esque display, i'd be a lot less worried ... but as of right now, i'm a tad skeptic. not TSC skeptic ... just not as confident as i'd like to be.